3 Indicators That Bitcoin Might Have Hit Bottom... Or Not? Don’t Let FOMO Take Over

Been a while since I witnessed this kind of wild price swings in Bitcoin. It plummeted to around $60K in just a week, then shot back up to the $70K mark within a day. I had a long limit order set at $60K, and honestly, I was so close to tearing up when it didn’t trigger and the price was already back at $70K. Initially, I thought about jumping in at the market price right away since I spotted three indicators suggesting we might be at a Bitcoin bottom. But I decided to hold off and keep a clear head. Taking another look at the signals, here’s what I found. Bitcoin dipped down to the mining cost level, which usually signals a strong chance of a long-term bullish trend. But it didn’t fall below $60K. In past crypto winters, the price typically lingered below that mark for a bit. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index dropped to just 6 out of 100. That’s a solid indicator, but it’s not directly linked to the price. Sure, the crypto might have found a bottom, but real growth won’t kick off until the Fear index climbs above 20. The MVRV index has dropped into the 0-10 range. This is one of the most reliable indicators of a crypto winter according to Bitcoin's market cycle theory. But it’s a good buy signal when we start to move out of this range. So, I’ve kept my limit order at $60K but upped my lot size. Those who bought in at $70K because of FOMO are already seeing red. After the weekend, bears might start going after the bulls' stop-losses. I’ve come across analysts predicting Bitcoin could drop to around $50K.

Apart from death, nothing in this life is 100% guaranteed. Some people also say taxes, but even that isn't 100% guaranteed. Only death. So, as I see it, you believe that $60K would be the bottom below which it cannot fall, but you point to some data and opinions that suggest it could. I've been in the markets for too long to see even more sophisticated explanations than this being disproved by the facts. I have no idea what's going to happen, but for me, a drop to $50K, for example, would not be surprising.

These round numbers are rarely a good position to take. You should always try to set your orders at another price and also if it were possible you should spread/split it into more than one order. There is not exactly any such thing though. Bitcoin mining and its cost is an interesting design. It depends on a lot of things, from obvious stuff like electricity price which varies globally to the difficulty. It is not a factor that should be considered when speculating about the price because it is affected by the price, it is not affecting the price! For now the "panic" has got a momentum and it is not possible right now to predict when it will stop. We have seen 80% crashes in the past in the big bear markets even though such massive crashes only happened after massive rises with bubbles not after a small rise like we had before this crash began...

The cost of Bitcoin mining is pretty much different depending on who you ask. Even more, the ~11% difficulty adjustment we just had may still reflect in future price. In the next 2 weeks miners will get discounted coins. And I'd say the crypto winter of the current cycle is not yet over. I hope that I'm mistaking, but the crypto winters I remember seemed to take long (months).

From this first chat illustration I've seen some similar predictions over the market as well in this same or similar pattern that the market is possible going to fall for the and even down around $50,000 but since we are now at the end of the week we will have to see what this new week may bring about from the market performance, whereby we can be able to deduce on the aspect of the support and the resistance of the market depending on the pattern it take  henceforth from now.

And if we look at the cycle, 2017-2018 - (December 2017 peak at ~$19,345.49 and lowest ~$3,236.76) = down 84% from it's all time high 2021-2021 - (November 2021 peak at ~$67,549 and lowest ~$15,787) = down 76% from it's all time high 2025-2026 - (October 2025 peak at $126,296 to the current price price of $68,883) = down ~45.5% But probably the market is not yet done and it could go and decline further till October of this year. And at a hypothetical $50k, ~60% down.

If the pattern continues, we don’t hit bottom until October 5th of this year. At that point it will be one hell of a ride to September 3rd, 2029. The word for 2026 should be patience.

It is very hard to keep up with the current market because any indicator might not be accurate or may signal something, but it does not always go according to plan. Many more factors could derail the current market setup. Those factors might be related to interest rates, liquidity, ETF flows, and money flowing into and out of the market. It's really hard to get it right, that's why, instead of FOMO-ing, better to go with DCA-ing. I don't think it's going to be easy for the miners if it goes lower.

Expect the price to continue declining gradually because $60k price is still a good price since we will see worse prices below $60k. We might see $40k and below since we still gat a long ride till the last quarter of this year. This is the time to buy and hodli and not to open a position because you don't know what will be the next direction of the market.

You have a very good thread here and I enjoyed reading through it including the nice charts you posted. If you set your entry price at $60k, that is a fair price and I know it will go back there again before we see any significant rally. Even though nothing will surprise me about bitcoin now, I would still doubt that bitcoin will get to $50k before the reversal. That price is too deep for us since we know that bitcoin remaining above $60k just confirms the expectations of many people that bitcoin will retest 2021 high before it will fly away and never to fall below $100k.

It’s 2021-2022 from the second year. Firstly one thing is common if we have had price data from previous years before 2017 we will see that the bear market before then was actually more brutal which brings me to my assumptions which is bitcoin volatility is definitely reducing either by the pumping or during bearish periods. It is with this consistent volatility reduction that i actually sets the bitcoin price bottom closing at around $45k which means a ~65% price dump from the all time high of ~$126k The key word for every bearish year is actually patience I think those that are actually not observing it are those who think because of the short live of bitcoin bullish sentiment last year that we have broken the cycle, anyone who still believes that the cycle is not over wouldn’t be surprised of the current market conditions. I think judging by last cycle bearish trend we would still not be at the bottom before November

Having worked in the ICU for 20 years, I can tell you that even the medical declaration of death isn't a 100% guarantee. And from a religious standpoint, we’re actually immortal. Moving from philosophy back to Bitcoin: during the last crypto winter, I tracked the "mining production cost" floor. I entered a bit late at $17K and cashed out once Bitcoin hit $100K. The moment Trump promised to make the US the "crypto capital of the world," I knew it was time to stop trading. When politics starts selling the dream, the smart money looks for the exit.

Its really hard to predict the bottom even with that indicator. There's just no telling at this point, that's why I prefer to see the price and see if it's already at the point where it should be considered grossly undervalued. That will be the right time to increase my DCA size. Those indicators are good but don't be surprised even if all those 3 showing strong signal of bottom, it still goes down even further.

While it's true that 60k should have hit and should have executed the trade, it's still not too late to try again. This increase is temporary and we may fall again and the price will hit bottom again. Obviously this time, it may keep going down instead of going up so it would not be the same. Most people do not realize that it is not the same as investing into something at the right time, because two prices hit the same time is not the same result at always. Like 60k hit that time and went up, next one could drop further and example is as simple as that. When history says that the bear market in 4 year cycle is a year long, we may not have repeating of history but surprises. Because, a new ATH happened earlier than usual hence bear trend also may end earlier but we cannot expect bull's action right away but stagnant market for next few months.

The $60,000 range drop was about 17% which occurred within a day. But you must be coming into the industry recently because I can still recall the previous 2022 winter with the drop of bitcoin price. I could also remember the price slash at 50% in 2020 during Covid-19 which also happened within a day. Emotions could be attached but I hope you'd hold firm over the unexpected sharp fall. Such is part of the tradition which occurs due to breakdown from the key supports that drives volatility.

We’ll see how it plays out

I’ve been in the market long enough to have weathered two full crypto winters. I’m simply stating a fact: we haven’t seen this level of volatility in quite a while, and that’s a major red flag. It suggests that institutional inflows are either insufficient or that corporations are starting to exit the crypto space.

as you can see here https://cryptoquant.com/asset/btc/chart/exchange-flows/exchange-reserve The total number of coins held in the exchange. As the values continue to rise in reserve, it indicates higher selling pressure and has shown an opposite trend in price in general. (For stablecoin, value rise indicates buying pressure) For derivative exchange, since coins could be used to open both long/short, a rise in reserve values indicates possible high volatility. In a simple way people are buying bitcoin and keep withdrawing from Exchange and can be indicate that they still buy and hold for long term iMO

The contrarian in me is causing my mind to become more bullish, however, there is also a skeptic in me that tells me that I should be more careful. My investment tactic follows the inflows and outflows of fiat in and out of the cryptospace. How can the contrarian in me become more bullish is there is an increasing outflow of fiat on the cryptospace? Tether’s USDT Set for Biggest Monthly Retreat Since 2022 The market value of the world’s largest stablecoin is heading for a notable pullback this month, after largely uninterrupted growth since the return of pro-crypto President Donald Trump to the White House. The total amount of Tether’s USDT in circulation has fallen by about $1.5 billion so far in February, according to Artemis Analytics. The drop follows a smaller contraction in January and puts the stablecoin on track for its biggest monthly decline since December 2022, weeks after the collapse of Sam Bankman-Fried’s FTX exchange. Read in full https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-20/tether-s-usdt-set-for-biggest-monthly-retreat-since-ftx-collapse However, is this also a warning sign that the cryptospace is nearing bottom? The contrarian in me and the skeptic in me are fighting each other hehehehehehehehe.