A lot of analysts are pretty bearish about the medium-term outlook. Not gonna lie, the charts do look pretty grim right now. But let’s play devil’s advocate for a sec: what could actually spark a quick recovery and get us back into a bull market? What’s the case for a rapid return to a bullish trend, especially considering how past cycles often led to many months of flat, boring movement? Here are a few thoughts on this.
Aside from the monthly RSI reading, it’s worth noting that RSI values have hit extreme oversold levels across nearly all time frames during this drop, after a long decline. Plus, the fear and greed index is at record lows too. Unless there’s some massive economic disaster coming, it’s gonna be tough to go much lower than this.
Some folks have pointed out that there are two new significant CME liquidity gaps sitting around the $80K and $100K price levels, which might serve as a short-term magnet for price discovery.
Another angle to consider that might help speed up the current consolidation phase is the BTC ETFs that hit the US market. If I remember right, those launched in early 2024. Unlike previous crashes, these ETFs are now in place and could quickly soak up a lot of capital.
The recent drop in BTC has caught a lot of attention globally, leading to a noticeable spike in Bitcoin searches.
It could be a bull trap.
The recent decline is too much, honestly, in just a few hours from the $70k to $60k zone. The pressure is extreme but still similar to the previous cycle.
I couldn't find any reason or event that could lead to this, but since it's bearish, it already started last year in November; the fuel might be because there might be economic events that triggered the sudden dump, not only in crypto or Bitcoin but also in other traditional markets. I mean, the whole market is bleeding. I know there's not so much effect on gold and silver, but I also notice indices like Nasdaq.
For now, no one knows if this is a bull trap, but I think it looks more like a retracement to me. Based on Fibonacci with a daily time frame, I suspect the $80k level to be retested these coming few weeks. Liquidity nowadays acts like a magnet; actually, most of the time the market is always attracted to where big liquidity is placed. With on-chain data there is big liquidity under $80k, but not only liquidity but also a big sell order.
No one knows what the price will be, but I think the market will try to test how strong the $80k level is and also the retracement level isn't formed yet, and the $80k level is under the 50% Fibo, or it is under neutral. If Bitcoin is still in a downtrend, then that is the level I am currently targeting before the price goes to challenge the $60k level again.
If the price succeeds in breaking the $80k level, then my analysis is wrong, but there's another reason behind that: sometimes those huge selling orders are fake or spoofed; if it is nearly hits that zone, those orders vanish immediately, which could lead to absorbing only the liquidity. Meaning high chances to break that level if buying pressure is enough to break that area.
I don't hope for much this season. I think this is the end of the season, and we should not focus on accumulating more Bitcoin at the expense of thinking about the market. I see people are still thinking about the current market, and they hope the market will build up even from here. Personally, I don't want to be a fool anymore this time. I will accept the fate and prepare for the next season. This was one of my worst season as I invested in some altcoins and I thought they will give me some return. However, Bitcoin was the best performer of my portfolio.
Thanks for your thoughts. I agree that the chart looks terrible and that any downswing in the stock markets will put pressure on the price.
Deep down, I am expecting that the price of BTC will once again disappoint positive/bullish expectations, as it did in late 2018, during the Covid crash, in autumn 2021, or in late 2025.
Price-wise, BTC has come to look rather fragile over the past few years, and it seems that nothing less than a miracle is required for this ultra-bearish looking chart to reestablish a bullish course within, say, 3-6 months.
If however 60K turns out to be such a point of reversal rather than the onset of the much expected, dull and long bear market, this would be seriously bullish IMHO.
Should the present slump deepen or last the usual duration, I think many retail hodlers will decide to call it a day and sell of much of their holdings once the tide turns again in 2027 or beyond
I thoroughly share your disappointment, and this sentiment is reflected in the still absolutely rock bottom, single digit fear and greed index readings. So many have lost the belief that BTC can swiftly recover from such a blow and continue surging upward, while firmly expecting that drawn out, dull bear market is virtually inevitable.
Currently, the price of BTC cannot sustain steep ascents. However, it has not lost its ability to drop violently. My remaining hope is now that the bear markets are much less severe and that, also thanks to ETFs, the recovery will proceed much faster than previously.
I think most of these arguments make sense for a bounce but a bounce doesnt always mean a bull market. Weve seen plenty of rallies in bear markets that turned out to be bull traps. Liquidity gaps and oversold indicators can be filled without changing the bigger trend. For me, the real wildcard is macro and stock market correlation. If equities roll over hard, crypto might struggle to decouple as much as we hope.
Funny, how did devil for in the bitcoin? Ah, you must be referring to those who predicts and trades out of greed and after loosing their position, they expresses their regrets and say it was the devil's work.
So it's a crown to their IQ's when they're lucky to make success? Story for other times.
If you could have ideal that selling pressure was one of the major attribute to the crash, then you should also know that buying pressure could recover momentum for up trends.
More institutions had also been recently showing their interest and plans 4o buy bitcoin despite the correction while some had been buying consistently aggrive under the selling pressure.
Can also be manipulated by exchange and regulation policies and adoptions rate.
Well, we do not know if $60k could be the final dip that is under 48-49% from the last ATH, which is still not enough to consider the bottom if we compare it to the other cycle.
I think you need to check the thread just posted a few hours ago below
- https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5573859.0
There are many things added in the market (Bitcoin ETF, institutional, etc.) last year; we do not know if $60k is the bottom, but for me, honestly, it is still not the dip price I am expecting to see $50k level or around $45k if the cycle is really repeats, then it would repeat again this year.
It is said that this dip occurred, because of the selling pressure in the Bitcoin market. which I intend to agree more. Although there may be other factors that contributed to the crash of Bitcoin price, which we are yet to figure out. But the pretty side of this crash is that, it has attracted big investors and institutions to the market and they currently accumulate the dip to hold for long term. And the common men, on the other hand are aggressively accumulate Bitcoin at this current level for long term holding. So for me, I will say that, this present dip, really paved way for upcoming investors. To accumulate Bitcoin aggressively at a cheaper price.
I also think the same way. It is a bull trap, it seems still not in the uptrend. Even if Bitcoin has recovered from $60k to $71k, the decline is unlikely over yet. Sure, we can understand that we are experiencing a huge decline now because we are actually in the bearish period (2026-2027). Also, there are some triggers such as wars, Tariff, and Epstein file issue. It is true, the decline didn't happen in crypto market only, other markets experience the same thing (Gold, stuck, etc).
Exactly. For the bottom, it is very possible lower than $60k. Yep, it seems to be around $40k-$50k. The cycle seems repeat, the bearish season remains happening after 2 years of bullrun season. However, it may be nor suddenly reaching the bottom, we may experience some sideways before the bottom. So, we must be careful of any small pump, it is probably not a new rally. It can be only a small pump before the next huge dump.
Well I like this, but according to Gemini "bearish structure, with a high risk of being a bull trap unless specific resistance levels are reclaimed." and I am agree with this one because we already saw an all-time high . "Bitcoin has shown resilience by bouncing back above $70,000$71,000 after a brutal sell-off that saw prices plunge toward $60,000 earlier this month." https://bitcoinmagazine.com/markets/bitcoin-price-71000-buy-the-dip
In that table you can see that only Onchain ETF indicate as Reversal
Sure, you could argue oversold conditions or ETF access help sentiment but I don't really care too much though.
Currently, I am keeping all of my coins in an air gapped device and I'm continiously added more BTC to that.
RSI can get more extreme and ETFs can both help and hurt depending on flows neither is a guaranteed catalyst for a quick reversal.
So, spend as little as possible and regularly add more coins to your portfolio if you don't want to miss next Bull Run
I hope you are right. I wish you were right.
Yes, the ETF market helps a lot these days. However, the ETF market can cause a sudden crash in the Bitcoin and crypto markets as well. Once the ETF market starts controlling a larger share of the circulation, the entire market will depend on the ETF. The ETF investors can cause a major pump and dump, and it won't remain as people's coin anymore. We do not want the companies to control the market. However, if you look at the ETF market, it is getting big and the companies actually can cause big moves in the market. For now, let's hope we will recover soon. However, I believe we are going to meet at 60K or even lower.
By the end of today and early tomorrow, if the market wasn't able to rise pass above $72,000 then the sudden shock that occurred today was just a mere fake out, because the market already formed a double top and we expect it to decide fast, however, anything can occur and make it changes and before you know it, the opposite is happening already, we just have to keep an eye on those candles and watch the next moves before there seems to also be a support at $68,000.
https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Ftalkimg.com%2Fimages%2F2026%2F02%2F08%2FUIaNWg.jpeg&t=683&c=tZuzKL7dmCgYMQ
After seeing this chart, which a veteran poster shared in another thread, and which strikes me as very fundamental, I am a little bit less concerned. It appears that at 60K, the price was already below the cost of production. Additional excursions to such lows should be of short duration, if the data provided in the above chart holds water.
Nevertheless, like you, I am less than impressed by the rejections below 72K, though I am pleased to see that the price does appear to hold up better than after previous break-outs. IMHO, 60K was rock bottom, and sentiment-wise record lows were put in. In consideration that this level appears to coincide with the current cost of production for Bitcoin, I am feeling more confident that 50K and 40K should not be visited for a significant lenght of time, if at all.
Yes, we should understand. When a bearish phase comes, there are times when the market experiences a temporary reversal. This has become a habit. Sometimes, some take advantage of the moment to make a profit. The situation seems convincingly upward but eventually goes back down, because the market is still cautious. Professional traders understand this condition. So in the bearish phase, the trend tends to be bearish for several years. After that, when selling in the market starts to run out, buyers begin to buy. In fact, my target is still lower, around $49K. IMO
That's already happening I think, judging from volumes on retail exchanges but I think even the so-called new institutionals flooding off into orders also suggests boardrooms are showcasing retail mentaility.
I always turn to miners when wondering where we go next and, they're barely treading water now so once we see significant shutdowns (as we have in past cycles) then we'll know we're really digging in and then the bottom should still cut new lows before profits draw miners back in.
In short: bull trap for me.
This couldn't be a trap im sure. Its just a regular drop that happens once in a while and this is one of such seasons. A season ti put heavy fear in the hearts of people especially those who have invested so much on it. But this should rather be an opportunity to accumulate more while this opportunity for the bear season lasts.
The bull trap was actually justified when the market actually started to pump from immediately after dumping below $60k and immediately reversed back to $70k price level. The thing is why many of the analysts are actually saying its a bull trap is not that they do not believe that we arent in a bearish period or experiencing a bearish sentiment but the market sudden dump wasnt all that and my reason for short term bull trap and it was justified as at when the BitMaxz actually supported it.
Right now the market is actually consolidating and looking for which side liquidity it will chase after because the market is just heavily about chasing after here liquidity is and then it fills those inducement areas and go after another. The chat suggests a buy side liquidity chase and that means a pump to fill the gaps around $80k after that flash drop last week
Your instinct is quite clear and on point because as it stand now, the slow bleed narrative feels the most certain unless some structural and macro factors actually trigger a recovery and this should be enough to overthrow the months of sideways boredom as we experience.
Spot ETF is where major of the big buyers are and as such any major demand doesn't just push the price of Bitcoin up, but it also causes a liquidity gap wherein the price must jump to find the next available buyer.
Also, if the Feds signals rate cut, the slow bleed movement would amount to a bear trap. Absence of capital in the economy will weaken the dollar and thus lead investors to seek the hardest asset available of which is Bitcoin.
Lastly, considering that AI technology and the economy surrounding it relies on Bitcoin as it's base layer currently, is a more reason why this could be recovery for me.