Bitcoin: Are ETFs About to Change the Game Again or Fade Away?

2023 marked a big moment for the US stock market with the debut of a Bitcoin-backed ETF. The SEC had turned down countless proposals from different investment firms before finally giving in when BlackRock submitted theirs. The SEC was hesitant to approve a Bitcoin ETF because of the potential risks for investors. But there’s this one risk that hardly anyone mentions. In the future, quantum computers could potentially crack public keys to reveal the private keys to Bitcoin wallets. If that risk becomes a reality, the SEC might have to pull the plug on Bitcoin ETFs. This would be a first in history, where a regulator forces an active ETF to shut down. And then, crypto on the stock market could just disappear.

This was discussed many times in the past. We are nowhere near quantum computers having enough power to solve private keys. This is maybe a decade away at least. By then most of the etf companies which hold bitcoin in their reverses will upgrade to higher and more secure technology. But right now there is nothing to worry about.

So if I got you right, you’re saying ETF holders like BlackRock will just jump in and tweak Bitcoin’s blockchain code — all for our ‘safety’? Remember how that went when SegWit came in? Plenty of miners weren’t on board, we got the Bitcoin Cash fork and a whole army of other forks. I counted 69 versions of Bitcoin back then. And BTC lost 50% in value. Good luck repeating that drama

They can always decide to fork BTC, anyone can do it - the only question is whether they would do far more harm than good for themselves and their clients. When the time comes for quantum-resistant BTC, it will be done by BTC developers and implemented with the support of the majority of the community. All of these forks are mostly insignificant, and only one was a somewhat serious attack on Bitcoin, which of course failed despite the huge amount of money invested in it. The majority of the community followed the original BTC and even if a new fork were to happen initiated by some powerful companies like BlackRock, again only a part of people would decide to follow their chain - because any centralization is completely opposite to what makes Bitcoin so attractive to all investors. Spot BTC ETFs have definitely changed the way people invest in BTC, so even though those of us who do it the other (correct) way may look at it with skepticism, it's simply something that had to happen and will play its part in the history of Bitcoin.

In fact, Bitcoin lost around 40% of its value after the Bitcoin Cash fork emerged. At that time, it wasn’t immediately clear which chain would actually keep the ‘Bitcoin’ name. Therefore, there’s no certainty that miners would back a new developer fork aimed at quantum resistance — they might prefer to stay on the original chain. More importantly, the SEC would likely be forced to halt BTC ETF trading ahead of any such fork. That alone could trigger a 50% or greater drop, similar to what happened in August 2017

Quantum computers, 51% attacks...these are not new issues and have been discussed a lot over the past 16 years. But so far, those risks have been theoretical, they have never posed a real threat to bitcoin. So, no need to think too much and worry unnecessarily. With the development of technology, quantum computers will develop  further in the future and may threaten the current bitcoin. But don't forget that Bitcoin is also constantly evolving, with developers working tirelessly to maintain and improve bitcoin protocol . So if at some point  quantum computers could threaten bitcoin, developers will have a solution to deal with it.

40% you say? BCH absolute ATH was December 20, 2017 - price $4355, while at the same time the BTC price was around $17700 and it was actually a great year for BTC. Maybe some wondered who would "win", but I think everyone knew that Bitcoin would remain Bitcoin because everything else is and will be just bad copies. Miners are mostly after profit, so they will mine what brings in more profit. After all, someone is still mining BCH today, right?

Quantum computing "may" break what we have today, but we can always move to another chain, which would mean we would be protected anyways. The only issue is, I have no idea how the old ones would be protected, think about it, we have so many wallets with bunch of bitcoins in it, and some of them are untouched for 10+ years, could be either one issue like that guy who cashed out 80k bitcoins, come back after many years, or it could be someone who forgot their keys. Those could be stolen, but that wouldn't really impact the market much, it would change the price if they sell it, but that is it, end of it, then we move to another level and continue like nothing happened and price would continue to soar like always. So, quantum computing won't ruin bitcoin at all.

It's really funny that people are afraid of bitcoin becoming obsolete due to quantum computing, but forget how their money is stored. How do you think your online passwords are protected on servers? How does a bank know that it's the employee logging in, not a hacker? How is military communication encrypted? How do they control satellites? If a quantum computer learns to break sha256, you'll have more things to worry about than bitcoin. Also, quantum computers are not owned by normal people. These are multi billion dollar installations run by groups of scientists. Even if they finally defeat the level of encryption that will allow them to take possession of a bitcoin address, doesn't mean they'll start stealing money from people. Most people want to do good, aim for the Nobel Prize, not to end up in jail for theft. When they publish they research and show it's possible, we'll have time to update the protocol.

Sometimes it is better to focus on what we can achieve currently with what we have then trying to look too far in the future and missing the moment because honestly that is wht I'm seeing with this line of taught stated by OP, it is better if you just make some profit and utilities it to your benefit now before any quantum computer finally emerges, that is if at all it ever will be. Now think of how long it will take to break into wallets by the said calculation and think about the time frame if it is not possibly that more sophisticated updates on the blockchain wouldn't have been discovered and implemented and improved the security such that it will take another decades to break and of which further updates will keep emerging, and the circle will continue,  so in the actual sense you have little to worry about with Bitcoin because if there should have been a worry to bother over about quantum computers,  it would have been taken care off long before you taught of it as there are people who's huge concern on this more than known.

All I’ve seen so far is SegWit and Taproot — and honestly, what did we get? No real scalability, no proper smart contracts. Sure, maybe quantum computing isn’t here yet, but I’ve also seen how miners react to forks. I wouldn’t bet on the network jumping up to fix things overnight if there’s ever a real quantum threat I’d say even more — BCH could easily break back into the top 10. It handled this year way better than a lot of big altcoins and keeps pushing up the ranks. Would be interesting to see what’s really behind this rise. Good point — the 80K BTC case grabbed headlines, but honestly, this year there’s been a bunch of old wallets moving smaller amounts too. People cashing out coins they’ve been holding for a decade. Makes you wonder if these OG holders are starting to get spooked by the whole quantum computing risk too You’re asking my opinion? Well, a quantum computer will be used for exactly that — breaking into banks, enemy comms, satellites. We’re already hacking each other just fine without quantum tech, by the way. Think back: when humans discovered the nuclear chain reaction, the first thing they did was build a bomb and drop it on Japan. It’ll be no different with quantum computing. And of course they’ll crack enemy Bitcoin wallets too — how could they not?

High error rate is still what holding back quantum computer from being practical and when quantum computer becoming practical, it's not only BTC that's at risk, it's any non quantum computing proof encryption. I'm sure there will be solution, maybe a push for a quantum computing proof encryption and to prevent 51% attack, we'll let the expert in the field to figure that out.

ETF is there and will always be, it has already made impact on the market and we still have many other economic developments coming as well that could as well have a deliberate impact on bitcoin price, however, it's unprofessional for us to assume the impact of ETF on bitcoin has just been ended, because they both flow in one direction as bitcoin price is being used for the ETF value on it assets invested.

We haven't been there yet mate, so why the rush and then think that ETF will be history just because of quantum computing? If there will be someone that is going to be affected, then it should be the average investors. But we all know that if you don't exposed your public key or just at least used your address once, then quantum computer will not be a effected as it's being promoted. And also Bitcoin developers are already aware of it and so I think that they might have a plan in motion already if such quantum computer will become a threat to us. So I doubt that the SEC will shut it down, companies that handle ETF will also make adjustments based on what the developers says so that everyone will be safe.

I was thinking about another discussion when I saw your post, but was chocked that you lean it on a better discuss. Well, the future will tell on that, who knows that hacking could be this advanced? That is what people should understand. It has been said many times that quantum computers can't breach Bitcoin's blockchain, but it is what it is when it happens, I fear technology. However, we should not hope for the worse, but for the better. If it happens, that will be the news of the century, though Bitcoin will continue to exist after it, but there will be enough setback to the existence.

This post is an expression of genuine concern but it turn out to sound like soft fud. Why will you even worry about the safety of the funds under ETF, companies that probably have insurance coverage. They will protect their funds just like banks do and it is even a top priority for them since they will have to prove the SEC wrong in their apprehension. I do not think the companies that have ETF do no know what to do, they are constantly adapting to the best security measures that is available because they understand the consequence of a security breach in their system.

Yeah, everyone can hide and guise on matters that we might thought to be genuine in the beginning, but if you learn how to read between the line, it seems that it has a deeper meaning. No offense to the OP, but for sure he should have research more on QC as it has been discussed before many teams in this forum. And from what we gather, yeah it could be a potential threat, but not everyone can hold their hands on QC and this super computer might be just used by few in the universities or just in the academe. And who would have thought of it to be cracking the algo of Bitcoin when it could have been spent on other more important things. So sorry to burst the bubble to the OP, I guess we will just crossed the bridge when we get there.

There’s actually no insurance coverage for ETFs. The share value is simply tied to the price of the underlying asset. So if Bitcoin ever drops to zero, investors would just lose everything. In that case, though, trust in the SEC itself would be severely damaged too

The entity changed the game is Grayscale with their win in a lawsuit against SEC. BlackRock saw this as a start of something big and they are smart as well as experienced enough to take advantage of this milestone for their Bitcoin Spot ETF application. The historic flow of Bitcoin Spot ETF success is like this and it has great contribution of Grayscale. The OP's question is like will Bitcoin make history or become history. It does not mean anything as Bitcoin is here for long existence and won't disappear to anywhere so will be Bitcoin Spot ETFs.

Bitcoin Spot ETFsare already making history. The Blackrock IBIT offering is one of their best performing new ETFs in history. People want exposure to Bitcoin & Larry Fink knew this, that’s why he pushed so hard for approval. Bitcoin Spot ETFs are only going to grow in popularity as the years go by. It’s a new investment class & because of its track record, lots of people are interested.