Hey everyone. So I've been digging into some data and noticed a few trends from the last three BTC cycles. I’ve come up with a forecast for where BTC might hit its peaks and lows this time around based on those patterns. My approach was to stick to stuff that’s already happened in prior cycles.
main graph
Table
second graph for alt 8 and 9
1) Overview.
Every new cycle kicks off with a solid breakout before settling above the high of the previous one. Each cycle tends to last about 1250-1400 days and includes two peaks and two lows, before moving into the next cycle. Using a Fibonacci grid, the end of the cycle is marked as 1 and the start as 0. Peaks in past cycles have been between 0.69 and 1. When prices dip below 0 on the fibo at their lowest points, I’ve noted these with a negative sign. The table lays out the key points for each cycle: 2 lows, 2 highs, along with the start (0) and end (1) of the cycle. It also tracks price movement in Fibonacci points between important key points. I calculated the total drop (2 moves) and total rise (3 moves) for each cycle.
Old cycles:
2) Predicting the base scenario for lows and highs in the new cycle.
The last three cycles always kicked off with a strong first peak (1, 1, or 0.91). This cycle has been a bit different. We’re seeing prices drop after a slight increase. That’s the main thing that sets this cycle apart from the previous ones. This is what some people point at when they say cycles might not be reliable anymore.
But there are two key facts.
Bitcoin Cycle Prediction 2024-2028 Based on Past Trends
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