Bitcoin mining profitability and price concerns

Hey everyone! I’m looking for some advice from you all. I'm thinking about getting a bunch of bitcoin miners (specifically the Avalon 840). I know they don’t use a ton of electricity individually, but since I’m planning to buy around 200 of them, my electricity bill is gonna be about 50k a year based on the rates here in my country. I crunched the numbers and figured that to cover the costs and keep everything running, I’m gonna need the Bitcoin price to be around 12.5k. So here’s my question for you folks: - Do you think Bitcoin will dip below the 13k mark? And if anyone here has experience with this specific miner, I’d love to hear your thoughts on it. Thanks to everyone who replies!

Okay they do 10-12tb so 2000-2400 if you have 200. 2000 x .32 = 640 a day x 365 = over 200k minus your bill of 50k for power means over 150k profit in a year. first how much are you paying? second is the gear coming from a good seller? third two hundred pieces will make heat. so how do you cool gear. fourth you need a lot of wires etc to set it up. next does price drop? does the diff jump? all in all maybe you are in over your head if you never ran a farm with 200 pieces shit happens.

hey! so to answer some of your questions: - I found a supllier in china that sells them 197$/piece so in total it will coast around 40000$ - the gear is used acording to the seller but I don't know for how many time it kept runing. - for the heat I have a larg basement (500m²) that prety cold most of the year and have exit hoals for ventilation and if it's not enought I will install air conditioning (with electricity prices it will not coast much). - for the setup I already have a budget for that and planin on seeing an industial electrician to do the instalation. - now for the price drops and all I calculated that I need a minimum price of 13k to  be able to pay bills and all. but the thing is I didn't take the increasing mining difficulty into account and I redid the calculations with an online tool that includes the difficilty increase so for a difficulty increase of 2% and a Btc price of 47000$ I had this result Start Date   Network Hashrate   Revenue   Elec. Costs   Profit   Total Profit   Payback Progress   Difficulty Change Week 1   219.49EH/s   ฿ 0.04113203   ฿ 0.01829343   ฿ 0.02283860   ฿ 0.02283860   2.71 %   2%       $ 1953.77   $ 868.94   $ 1084.83   $ 1084.83       Week 2   223.88EH/s   ฿ 0.15195559   ฿ 0.06893375   ฿ 0.08302185   ฿ 0.10586045   12.57 %   2%       $ 7217.89   $ 3274.35   $ 3943.54   $ 5028.37       Week 3   228.36EH/s   ฿ 0.14897607   ฿ 0.06893375   ฿ 0.08004233   ฿ 0.18590277   22.08 %   2%       $ 7076.36   $ 3274.35   $ 3802.01   $ 8830.38       Week 4   232.93EH/s   ฿ 0.14605497   ฿ 0.06893375   ฿ 0.07712123   ฿ 0.26302400   31.23 %   2%       $ 6937.61   $ 3274.35   $ 3663.26   $ 12493.64       Week 5   237.58EH/s   ฿ 0.14319115   ฿ 0.06893375   ฿ 0.07425740   ฿ 0.33728141   40.05 %   2%       $ 6801.58   $ 3274.35   $ 3527.23   $ 16020.87       Week 6   242.34EH/s   ฿ 0.14038348   ฿ 0.06893375   ฿ 0.07144973   ฿ 0.40873114   48.54 %   2%       $ 6668.22   $ 3274.35   $ 3393.86   $ 19414.73       Week 7   247.18EH/s   ฿ 0.13763086   ฿ 0.06893375   ฿ 0.06869712   ฿ 0.47742826   56.69 %   2%       $ 6537.47   $ 3274.35   $ 3263.11   $ 22677.84       Week 8   252.13EH/s   ฿ 0.13493222   ฿ 0.06893375   ฿ 0.06599847   ฿ 0.54342673   64.53 %   2%       $ 6409.28   $ 3274.35   $ 3134.93   $ 25812.77       Week 9   257.17EH/s   ฿ 0.13228649   ฿ 0.06893375   ฿ 0.06335274   ฿ 0.60677947   72.06 %   2%       $ 6283.61   $ 3274.35   $ 3009.26   $ 28822.03       Week 10   262.31EH/s   ฿ 0.12969264   ฿ 0.06893375   ฿ 0.06075889   ฿ 0.66753836   79.27 %   2%       $ 6160.40   $ 3274.35   $ 2886.05   $ 31708.07       Week 11   267.56EH/s   ฿ 0.12714964   ฿ 0.06893375   ฿ 0.05821590   ฿ 0.72575426   86.18 %   2%       $ 6039.61   $ 3274.35   $ 2765.26   $ 34473.33       Week 12   272.91EH/s   ฿ 0.12465651   ฿ 0.06893375   ฿ 0.05572277   ฿ 0.78147703   92.80 %   2%       $ 5921.18   $ 3274.35   $ 2646.83   $ 37120.16       Week 13   278.37EH/s   ฿ 0.12221227   ฿ 0.06893375   ฿ 0.05327852   ฿ 0.83475555   99.13 %   2%       $ 5805.08   $ 3274.35   $ 2530.73   $ 39650.89       Week 14   283.94EH/s   ฿ 0.11981595   ฿ 0.06893375   ฿ 0.05088220   ฿ 0.88563775   105.17 %   2%       $ 5691.26   $ 3274.35   $ 2416.90   $ 42067.79       Week 15   289.61EH/s   ฿ 0.11746662   ฿ 0.06893375   ฿ 0.04853287   ฿ 0.93417063   110.93 %   2%       $ 5579.66   $ 3274.35   $ 2305.31   $ 44373.10       Week 16   295.41EH/s   ฿ 0.11516335   ฿ 0.06893375   ฿ 0.04622960   ฿ 0.98040023   116.42 %   2%       $ 5470.26   $ 3274.35   $ 2195.91   $ 46569.01       Week 17   301.31EH/s   ฿ 0.11290524   ฿ 0.06893375   ฿ 0.04397150   ฿ 1.02437173   121.64 %   2%       $ 5363.00   $ 3274.35   $ 2088.65   $ 48657.66       Week 18   307.34EH/s   ฿ 0.11069142   ฿ 0.06893375   ฿ 0.04175767   ฿ 1.06612940   126.60 %   2%       $ 5257.84   $ 3274.35   $ 1983.49   $ 50641.15       Week 19   313.49EH/s   ฿ 0.10852100   ฿ 0.06893375   ฿ 0.03958725   ฿ 1.10571665   131.30 %   2%       $ 5154.75   $ 3274.35   $ 1880.39   $ 52521.54       Week 20   319.76EH/s   ฿ 0.10639313   ฿ 0.06893375   ฿ 0.03745939   ฿ 1.14317604   135.75 %   2%       $ 5053.67   $ 3274.35   $ 1779.32   $ 54300.86       Week 21   326.15EH/s   ฿ 0.10430699   ฿ 0.06893375   ฿ 0.03537325   ฿ 1.17854929   139.95 %   2%       $ 4954.58   $ 3274.35   $ 1680.23   $ 55981.09       Week 22   332.68EH/s   ฿ 0.10226176   ฿ 0.06893375   ฿ 0.03332801   ฿ 1.21187730   143.91 %   2%       $ 4857.43   $ 3274.35   $ 1583.08   $ 57564.17       Week 23   339.33EH/s   ฿ 0.10025663   ฿ 0.06893375   ฿ 0.03132288   ฿ 1.24320018   147.63 %   2%       $ 4762.19   $ 3274.35   $ 1487.84   $ 59052.01       Week 24   346.12EH/s   ฿ 0.09829081   ฿ 0.06893375   ฿ 0.02935706   ฿ 1.27255724   151.12 %   2%       $ 4668.81   $ 3274.35   $ 1394.46   $ 60446.47       Week 25   353.04EH/s   ฿ 0.09636354   ฿ 0.06893375   ฿ 0.02742979   ฿ 1.29998704   154.37 %   2%       $ 4577.27   $ 3274.35   $ 1302.92   $ 61749.38       Week 26   360.10EH/s   ฿ 0.09447406   ฿ 0.06893375   ฿ 0.02554031   ฿ 1.32552735   157.41 %   2%       $ 4487.52   $ 3274.35   $ 1213.16   $ 62962.55       Week 27   367.30EH/s   ฿ 0.09262163   ฿ 0.06893375   ฿ 0.02368788   ฿ 1.34921523   160.22 %   2%       $ 4399.53   $ 3274.35   $ 1125.17   $ 64087.72       Week 28   374.65EH/s   ฿ 0.09080552   ฿ 0.06893375   ฿ 0.02187177   ฿ 1.37108700   162.82 %   2%       $ 4313.26   $ 3274.35   $ 1038.91   $ 65126.63       Week 29   382.14EH/s   ฿ 0.08902502   ฿ 0.06893375   ฿ 0.02009127   ฿ 1.39117827   165.20 %   2%       $ 4228.69   $ 3274.35   $ 954.34   $ 66080.97       Week 30   389.78EH/s   ฿ 0.08727943   ฿ 0.06893375   ฿ 0.01834568   ฿ 1.40952395   167.38 %   2%       $ 4145.77   $ 3274.35   $ 871.42   $ 66952.39       Week 31   397.58EH/s   ฿ 0.08556807   ฿ 0.06893375   ฿ 0.01663432   ฿ 1.42615827   169.36 %   2%       $ 4064.48   $ 3274.35   $ 790.13   $ 67742.52       Week 32   405.53EH/s   ฿ 0.08389026   ฿ 0.06893375   ฿ 0.01495651   ฿ 1.44111478   171.13 %   2%       $ 3984.79   $ 3274.35   $ 710.43   $ 68452.95       Week 33   413.64EH/s   ฿ 0.08224535   ฿ 0.06893375   ฿ 0.01331161   ฿ 1.45442639   172.71 %   2%       $ 3906.65   $ 3274.35   $ 632.30   $ 69085.25       Week 34   421.91EH/s   ฿ 0.08063270   ฿ 0.06893375   ฿ 0.01169895   ฿ 1.46612534   174.10 %   2%       $ 3830.05   $ 3274.35   $ 555.70   $ 69640.95       Week 35   430.35EH/s   ฿ 0.07905167   ฿ 0.06893375   ฿ 0.01011792   ฿ 1.47624326   175.30 %   2%                                     $ 3754.95   $ 3274.35              $ 480.60                   $ 70121.55       Week 36   438.96EH/s   ฿ 0.07750163   ฿ 0.06893375   ฿ 0.00856789   ฿ 1.48481115   176.32 %   2%       $ 3681.33   $ 3274.35   $ 406.97   $ 70528.53       Week 37   447.74EH/s   ฿ 0.07598199   ฿ 0.06893375   ฿ 0.00704825   ฿ 1.49185939   177.16 %   2%       $ 3609.14   $ 3274.35   $ 334.79   $ 70863.32       Week 38   456.69EH/s   ฿ 0.07449215   ฿ 0.06893375   ฿ 0.00555840   ฿ 1.49741780   177.82 %   2%       $ 3538.38   $ 3274.35   $ 264.02   $ 71127.35       Week 39   465.83EH/s   ฿ 0.07303152   ฿ 0.06893375   ฿ 0.00409777   ฿ 1.50151557   178.30 %   2%       $ 3469.00   $ 3274.35   $ 194.64   $ 71321.99       Week 40   475.14EH/s   ฿ 0.07159953   ฿ 0.06893375   ฿ 0.00266578   ฿ 1.50418135   178.62 %   2%       $ 3400.98   $ 3274.35   $ 126.62   $ 71448.61       Week 41   484.65EH/s   ฿ 0.07019562   ฿ 0.06893375   ฿ 0.00126187   ฿ 1.50544323   178.77 %   2%       $ 3334.29   $ 3274.35   $ 59.94   $ 71508.55       It's really far from what I calculated (and you too) in the begining it devides the generated BTC's by 6 and I will not be able to run the euipement for more than a year, and the most annoying thing is that if the price drops below that mark it wil be worstand I may not even be able to pay for the investment. I saw from your replies and posts that you practice minig and I want to know if this numbers are realistic or no according your experience in this field. finally, yes I expect to have some problemes if I go in this way and