Bitcoin Reaches $80K But Is It Just a Bull Trap Before MicroStrategy's Earnings?

So, Bitcoin just hit the $80K mark, which is a huge resistance point. If it breaks through this, we could see it shoot up to $90K since there's not much standing in the way. Remember when it got rejected from this level back in late January? There weren't any significant levels between here and there, so if it pushes through, it might really take off without much resistance. But here’s the deal: this surge to $80K is happening right before MicroStrategy's earnings report tomorrow. They decided to pause their Bitcoin buys to keep their quarterly numbers clear, locking in an average price of $77.9K for their 818,000 BTC. Analysts are still expecting a loss of about $19 per share for them. Plus, there’s some backlash about how MicroStrategy is funding its Bitcoin purchases now. They just rolled out what they call "perpetual" bonds under the ticker STRC, which are set up to resemble equity. Bondholders get an 11.5% annual return in dollars. Looks good on paper, as long as Bitcoin keeps going up. This current BTC rally might be driven by the thought that MicroStrategy will start buying again right after the report drops. But honestly, this could also turn out to be a classic bull trap. The whole April rally and the spike in early May didn’t have strong trading volume backing them, so that’s definitely something to keep an eye on.

I don't usually pay attention to these kinds of speculation but I'm very well aware that if the microstrategy resumes their accumulation, price would indeed push higher. Right now bitcoin Is slowly approaching the resistance at the $80 zone. Breaking past it will be a signal that the bull trend it started in march was the end of its bearish cycle. But I'm still in doubt because of how the trend has been ranging upwards. Two things we can expect from price is to hold strong below the expected $80k resistance zone and drop back down to at least $68k( there's a whole lot of trend line liquidity below to take out) or we break above the $80 and use it as a strong support to push higher. If the later happens we may get to a new high by the end of the year..

A solid consolidation above $80K effectively invalidates the scenario of a drop below $75K. It’s actually fascinating to watch: Bitcoin continues to climb despite all the fundamental headwinds. Even the renewed conflict in the Middle East hasn't been enough to stop this momentum.

Maybe yes, but maybe not. With the potential to rise so high, no reason for MicroStrategy to stop their accumulation on Bitcoin investment. The price still below $100,000 so there will be more discount price for them especially if they can use the time to buy. It seems the rise continue, we can hope for the best while we wait and see. The chance to go high price still there so that could happens this week. But if bad news comes, the price might get correction as usual.

I still think the current pump is likely a bull trap even without that report of Microstrategy's earnings. Well, we can see that probably around late this May or early June. I'm not that convince too, and it really has a weak kind of spike. I'm thinking that the $90k price will be too much for this trend to continue unless we see those huge volumes. You think $50k is still a price to reach before we continue a new ATH?

I don’t think it’s a trap, and the term “trap” doesn’t apply regardless of the price level; in my opinion, this term might apply to traders. If I’m not mistaken, the use of the word “trap” originated within trading circles, and traders are already accustomed to this terminology. The rise will continue until the end of the first week of May. After that, a new group of speculators will emerge. The most important thing here is when a new support level forms at $80,000. If this trend continues, a move to $90,000 could materialize by the end of the second week of May.

Now the market is at $82,000 and we may be more bullish anytime from now, while this does not make the conclusion that we are already off the bear season, this is where we cannot completely take it as Bull just buy the market is pumping because it's me fall at the same time anytime from now, it may also be that this is just a fake out in which we may think we are going more bullish than seeing the market falling.

Situations like this didn't they happen repeatedly last month? Some people link it to the war situation in the Middle East. The temporary ceasefire for negotiations, which ultimately failed, is assumed to have an impact on Bitcoin's price movements, which experienced repeated rises and falls.  I am not sure about that impact. But we can see that this movement might be trying to keep going up, although we will see some corrections afterward.

We know the risks and implications of every our Speculations is handicapped that we can not prove our claims. In the same vein, since it is also noted that the phases of Bitcoin price is being determined by demands and supplies, then the trading volumes should be the basic significance that manipulates the price. Of course the major dominant factors driving the market price is the ETF adoption and note that it is not only Strategy that is in the incline instead it does play it own impacts with their concurrent aggressive buying of Bitcoin which also marks the institution one of the highest holding Bitcoin. In all, trading volume plays the roles and not specific to the Strategy or a particular institutions.

I think Bitcoin is currently showing good momentum, the gradual rise supported by strong volume, indicates that market interest remains high. As i write this, Bitcoin is trading at $81,500 and is undergoing a correction phase on lower time frames, which is normal within the market structure. As long as the price remains above $80k, the likelihood of Bitcoin dropping back to lower prices appears to be diminishing. An interesting point currently worth noting is that Bitcoin price continues to rise despite being in the midst of conditions filled with bad news that could cause prices to drop significantly in a short time yet, in reality, Bitcoin is still rising gradually and is poised to reach even higher prices.

I believe the above image does not contain enough volume data; if you switch to tradingview, you will see more volume. For the time being, we can see that price has broken the $80k level and reached $82.5k. We are currently in the golden zone, with resistance at $83.8k. I saw on the liquidity map that there isn't much liquidity in that area, so there's a good chance they can take that level until $85k. However, the buy volume is decreasing because I believe we are still in a retracement phase, which could occur once the $83k level is filled. So, this could be a bull trap, but I'm not sure because BTC price action is still bullish. If there is good news that can support the pump, we could see the $85k level..

This is one of the reasons so many people dont want to jump in conclusions that we're off to bearish season...The increase in Bitcoin right now, haven't not shown a strong bond...at this point predicting what that will happen next in bitcoin is scary, because you might not get it correct or not...it's obvious that price of Bitcoin is unpredictable We might have confidence that the price of Bitcoin is increasing due to sudden changes that occur in it's price...and conclude that we are out of bearish and tomorrow the price falls drastically...

it is not un predictable. it will either go well over 500k before 2035 or bust out I am playing it goes well over 500k before 2035

One company news affecting price is just a trap in general is my thinking, the idea its a corporate event that determines price direction or strength would be the true negative.   I'd rather observe we touched 200 day moving average today for the first time since November 3rd.   While thats positive to recover back to that measure it also shows the scale of movement and that the 200 DMA needs to be gaining not declining like it is currently.   That conflict and fight in the price is where I'd expect revision more then having to reference the agm notes.

The volume is not that high that backed the typical bull run of Bitcoin while this price movement happened a lot of times in the past that makes a lot of trader and speculators think of it as a bull trap compared to a real bull run movement. I believe that this is the start of a bullrun because there’s no bearish news that can hinder it which means many speculators might FOMO buy especially now that price is already settling above 80K unlike previous bull trap that dump immediately after hitting the price above 70K and 80K level. Let’s see how it will behave after the weekly candle close or during the weekends.

500k was my price target for 2035, but now I'd say more like 400k for 2035. Certainly it's not a "well over 500k before 2035 or bust out" scenario. Bitcoin isn't going to fail, but that doesn't mean it is gonna hit some specific price point some specific year. Most people in 2017 probably figured it'd be $500k in the 2020s haha back when it was still going through exponential growth cycles. Growth slows over time, and also doesn't help that most people have had it drilled into them by endless negative press for years and years and people calling bitcoin a fraud/ponzi/etc or just gotten scared by any one of the bear markets since 2018 so that most people think bitcoin used to be a thing but isn't popular anymore and it's "too late" now, so most people keep telling themselves there's no point in buying bitcoin now and it only made sense to buy it a number of years ago - that's why the big retail booms don't happen anymore, and that's why growth will be slower than people expected a number of years ago. Hyperbitcoinization is not a thing, bitcoin will grow gradually over decades to come. Well over 500k by 2035 is not in the cards unless some really major things happen by then, like say a bunch of govts picking up millions of bitcoin for reserves, or if most large corporations start holding a good amount of bitcoin in their treasuries. But most likely those two things are gonna slowly happen over decades, along with individual adoption, not suddenly in less than 10 years.

Isn't it that Saylor says that they might have to sell their Bitcoin to pay dividends? So that alone should send shockwaves to the market as we all know that Strategy and Saylor are the poster boy of Bitcoin right now and they are not going to sell. But it was a U-turn. But if you look at it though, it's a good decision as they can continue to buy back later. It's not about a trap before their earning report, it's about how we average joe taking advantage of the situation and buy Bitcoin. And there is still the Bitcoin conference right? So that could also be one reasons why we keep the price going up to $81k++.

Now the price of Bitcoin may increase as a kind of trap but now the price of Bitcoin is much lower than its ATH so I don't think investing according to the DCA strategy from now on will be bad for anyone. Why would an investor pay attention to the volatility of Bitcoin if he wants to invest for the long term. The price of Bitcoin is down about 36.50% from its ATH now and we have seen that every time Bitcoin makes a new ATH, it is at a price of 2x or more than its previous ATH. So if you invest in Bitcoin according to DCA from now on, you can easily make 3x or more profit in the next season, so why should we be more worried about the volatility of Bitcoin instead of DCA in this condition of Bitcoin? Where Bitcoin has been following the same pattern in every cycle for the last 17 years.

For an investor that needed rest of mind, paying attention to the market and what's going on will stress you more than what you ever expected. It is not really easy for you to be checking the market everytime to know what actually happening when you have couples of thisngs to do. For you to relieve yourself from all those up and down movement in the market, it's better to keep a deaf ear to whats happening so you don't have to be thinking whether if you sell now you can crap the opportunity that you are already in profit when you don't know if the price of Bitcoin will continue to go bull.

I just not get why people become bullish on every pump and then become bearish on every dump. The market doesn't work that way. One needs to understand the macro and study the market structure at a broader level. Bitcoin is making lower low and lower highs and the current move up may just end up making another lower high. So we do not need to be excited yet. Yeah if it makes higher high and confirms it on higher time frame, then surely we can see a real breakthrough but not with the current price actions.