Bitcoin's Next Phase: Conflict and Rising Inflation

Bitcoin's surge in late February happened right when the fighting kicked off in Iran. But that jump from $65K to $70K wasn’t just a random spike. It was happening while a lot of coins were being pulled off exchanges and there was a big influx of cash into BTC ETFs. Both of these trends show a clear demand from both hodlers and institutional investors during the turmoil. Now here’s the twist. The area where the conflict started is crucial for global commodities. Oil and gas prices have already skyrocketed. Looking at the US wholesale price indicator, it’s clear that inflation is starting to ramp up and all that gold central banks have hoarded will likely be sold off to support national economies. So, it seems Bitcoin is shaping up to be the one asset that can actually gain value in a crisis. That’s what helped crypto take its first step up from the lows. The war was somewhat expected. But crypto still has to follow market dynamics and prices reflect everything. The recent Fed rate freeze pulled the price back down to $70K. Honestly, the upcoming inflation numbers are gonna push BTC back up to $75K and that’ll be the second leg up. The third leg will kick in once the war wraps up.

But we don't know when will the conflict will end. So it's better to really not hear this noises from the outside. If we believed that Bitcoin is the best hedge against conflict, preservation at this trying times, then so be it. Just continue to accumulate and HODL for the longest time. Regardless of the outcome of the war, we should be looking at the bigger picture. Right now it's good to see $70k++, but still we don't know, as far as cycle goes, we should be in the bear market. But then again, we could be seeing super-cycle and we might see the price not going below $70k but instead, become bullish for all we know.

Because gold is falling this time, that does not mean it is not a store of value, but what that happened was that gold has increased so significantly and it is affected by some economic United States news that is not even related to the war. Bitcoin rose but I do not think it is also because of the news but I like how bitcoin just fell and rose very well during the war. This has let people that are saying bitcoin price movement is correlating with stocks movement that they are wrong.

So it can be said that this also becomes a sign that we will exit the bearish market at that moment? Unfortunately, we will not know how long the war will last. I believe Bitcoin will reach $75k again, and it might not even take long. But that might not mean we are moving into the next bullish market. The market might still be like this, rising and correcting in prices that don't differ much for a while. But if we really exit the bearish market sooner, maybe that would be better.

I think there is more at play ATM and a lot at stake in the coming weeks and months. I am feeling bearish tbh and the current price hike will be short lived. I am basing this on the fact that literally everything is going to be affected by this war - which isnt over yet and both sides now are targeting oil infrastructure. From what just happened in the 2.5 weeks of the war its going to take monrhs to get back to normal and thats if they just stopped now. Everyone is going to be affected, there could be a global recession, some analysts have already mentioned depression. It that happens there will be pressure on households to pay bills, pay loans and fund the day to day costs of inflated goods. Nah, I think there is a lot more to play out yet...

I would say not the only one. There are many industries that goes up during a war, gold did went up as well if you believe it or not, and there are companies that goes up during war, mainly defense related, but in the end many things that are related to it also goes up as well. Sure you may not see the connection right away, but even chip manufacturers like NVidia make money during this time because war uses a lot of resources, and you may not know all of them. In the end, bitcoin is not the only thing that goes up during a crisis, there are others and we are going to see them be a lot better and we could make a lot more money as well. We just need to be careful on how to get better on the long run when we are investing.

This is completely wrong assertion, Bitcoin rose and so does many other assets including crude oil and natural gas. There are many factors that makes an asset to rise during war and uncertainties. I remember when wheat rose significantly when the war in Ukraine broke out, this was in response to demand and supply as Russia and Ukraine contribute a significant percentage of world's supply of wheat. Now we have oil and gas rising too because of the war and what is happening to gold is normal retracement since it has been rising massively in recent past so it is normal for it to experience some corrections.

You have made your point clear that the war analytical outcome with this influence of global revolutionary economy threats should not be a reason to why we should only invest on Bitcoin at this terrifying time was going to spike to market manipulation whether it was going to trigger Bitcoin price increase in value or not. To be on the better stance in this situation, you can consider converting your physical values to digital value for security purpose and as inflation also sets its place, be it known that it is important to store your funds in a safe haven assets such as Bitcoin while you don't hope to sell or make profits at the end of the war. . Perhaps you don't know when the war will end so, you just have to focus on accumulating values of Bitcoin while holding without panics but hold as a long term store of values.

Sometimes even when bitcoin react so much to an event, we can't initiaterely claim that bitcoin will continue or even keep reacting to such news most especially in situations like this current crisis in the middle East, we can't accurately tell how bitcoin is going to react to the happenings and news of the war, bitcoin is a volatile asset and most of the times bitcoin doesn't follow same pattern., the Iran and Israel war could push the price of bitcoin to $100k or even above.

I'm on the same book and I agree, it could help to push bitcoin at the level of $75k. Last time it tried, it couldn't break resistance but the chart pretty obviously showing another attempt of retesting the resistance. We've been in the bearish market for so long, I think its time for bitcoin to do another leg up and currently it's the least expected time for bitcoin to go up in the perspective of the ordinary retailers.

Many analysts are already saying that the bottom is in for this cycle. Either way, there's reason to believe it — we've already seen the longest Bitcoin drawdown since 2018 and the lowest CryptoFear index reading on record

If Bitcoin holds its upward trend during a stock market decline, investments in BTC ETFs will grow exponentially!!!

I love how people take a very short period of time that works in their favor and start drawing conclusions that suit them based on that. We’re talking about Bitcoin having risen by, what, 5% since the conflict began? That falls within Bitcoin’s normal volatility over a three-week period. Lol. Nice wishful thinking. It seems that, according to Alpen, oil prices have also fallen during this crisis. If you wanted to go overboard, you could have said that Bitcoin is the only asset that will keep rising from now on for the rest of eternity.

I think it's obvious that BTC ETF's are now like a haven for investors. Imagine putting your money without you actually holding the keys to your coins. Now, that is the first for everyone as we preach that we should have total control of our private keys and this is what ETF has to offer that's why it grow so much. However, that narrative might not sit well for traditional investors like the majority of us. Who still look at the price movement and what is the feeling of the current moment. So maybe this war might proved that Bitcoin is a good store of value, but there are still a lot of investors on how they view Bitcoin.

I don't care about the current war, what I see is that Bitcoin is currently still in the realm of promising speculation in the future, regardless of bombs everywhere, we have seen years of war in the Middle East, from century to century, but the economy and currently Bitcoin is still sought after by investors and is used as the best storage asset against inflation. I'm sure there is no useless speculation in the current situation, it's just that sometimes many people associate Bitcoin with war, in fact Bitcoin is not only used in Iran, countries and people in other countries also care about Bitcoin, so there is no real phase for me thatmust be contested.

That's a hopeful take I guess.but I'd rather be mindful though. We've been down badly and we just got up a few percentage from that devasting dump and more like some dead cat bounce thing recently and it pull back a bit. Well, who don't love some leg up? I hope you're right though and how positive are your that this war wouldn't last that long? Will this war even take to 3 months? It's costly on both sides and hope they'll find some resolutions.

Your comparison makes no sense. It's also not clear what time frame used by you to determine such comparison. If you're seeing it on 5 year time frame, Gold is still outperforming Bitcoin. Yeah, it's dumping recently, but it's not as significant as Bitcoin. The price of Bitcoin was around 65k at 2021, yet it's still around 70k, which is almost doing nothing. It's true there was a pump that lead Bitcoin went to the new ATH(126k), but it's moving down a lot instead of doing side ways and retain its ATH momentum. So i guess your comparison is far from the reality. It's good to see Bitcoin is bouncing back a bit, but it's not yet resistant from the crisis. Just a small bounce won't validate if bitcoin is resist to the crisis. It needs to be tested even more.

The Bitcoin four year circle still exists, so the insinuation that the bear market might be over is not valid. The market is just reacting positively to the conflict in the Middle East. The market would stabilise and the bear season would continue. It's great that Bitcoin is attracting investors' attention during this period.  But the comparison between Bitcoin and gold as a hedge against conflict is premature. More than one conditions couid affect the market. We saw the positive reaction of gold during the tariff war and how high-risk assets suffered price drops. Gold still leads as an investor safe haven and Bitcoin is growing to that level.

Holding your own Bitcoin keys is like withdrawing all your cash from the bank, stacking it at home, and then putting a sign on your front fence that says: 'Huge pile of money inside' along with your exact address

What if this is actually World War III? Missiles can now fly 4,000 kilometers, yet people still think this war won't touch them. Look at the history of World War II—billions of people back then also believed the fighting was 'somewhere far away,' until they realized it was everywhere