Hey everyone,
I’m Danny. I’ve been in the trading game for about 9 years now, and let me tell you, it’s been a wild ride. But the last couple of years I finally nailed down a strategy that really works. I made a promise to myself that I’d only trade when this strategy gives me the green light because it has a win rate of over 60%. Honestly, it feels more like 70-75%, which is solid for making trades while managing risk properly.
I’m sharing this to help others make some cash and live the life they dream of, and I hope you can use this strategy in your own trading.
A TIP: Don’t just dive into trading this strategy blindly. Test it out on a DEMO account first and take a look at the history. It’ll help you understand how it works, and you might find ways to tweak it for better entries and exits. The goal isn’t perfection; it’s about making money.
Here’s the strategy:
Indicators I use: Exponential moving averages of 5, 21, and 55. The colors I go with are red, yellow, and green.
Check this link we had 2 trades suggested by this strategy last week, and both worked out perfectly.
Basically, if the price is in an uptrend and the 5 EMA crosses below the 21 EMA (especially on a 4-hour chart, since lower timeframes usually work out less), it’s likely to find support at the 55 EMA. In the chart I shared above, you can see that last week the red EMA (5) crossed below the yellow EMA (21) twice and both times it bounced off the green EMA (55).
In a downtrending market...
Good strategy but it is still good to tell people to use small amount of money because trading is very risky and can lead to significant loss of money.
I see some coins like bitcoin, and less volatile litecoin and some other to be very easy to trade if the trader is patient. The coins can increase, reduce a bit and later increase which traders that are patient can use to make money.
If you're in a trading discussion with someone and he/she claims of such things like it's an absolute winner, then it's probably time to turn around and leave the conversation.
I'm not trying to offend you, OP. But like you posted - Don't Trust, Verify.
Using EMA it always work on uptrend or down trend since you talk about 55 EMA or even just 50 period should also works they always respected that area and then after filling up the supply zone the market will retest 55 and there's a possibilty it could break 50 or 55 EMA to test out 100 period or 200 period if respected it will bounce again just like what happen today with BTC. It respect the 55 EMA.
I see you want to tell us to entry on 55EMA and expect for 1:2 risk reward ratio.
However, whats your confirmation here? Is your confirmation is if 5 EMA cross below or above 21EMA it considered it will bounce to 55EMA?
Without a confirmation it is considered risky.
In fact the note is just below the post, to trade with only demo money, until you understand how it works and you find value innit.
The idea is not to make anyone go bet with it, but to consider adding to their strategy if they are very experienced in trading crypto currencies.
Because that is why I posted exactly about the strategy, everyone can check the history with the EMA's + I cannot explain every rule in trading in 1 post, I don't even want to. Just want to share something I make money with and it always allows a proper risk management for every trade with most of them ending in profits.
To explain a lot of rules about trading, would take weeks for me to write..
That's exactly why I endorse trading demo only, until you see, it has value.
Don't judge, you did not tried but accuse.
Verifying the chart will take 2-3 hours and you can count how many times this strategy played out.
Of course it's not 100% because there's nothing like 100%.
But has a very high chance of playing out and gives an idea where prices are heading in Bitcoin only.
Hopefully everyone understands from the right side, I am trading full time, I know how it is and I don't want people to waste money but to find a strategy that works, use it until it won't, because if it worked most of the times for the past 10+ years, the chance of it working in the future is high, or if you have anything better, this strategy can still help giving a view from another angle.
Not really, basically, in an uptrend whenever the 5 EMA crosses below the 21, you can expect a touch again into the 5EMA or a little bit higher to enter a short position, because most of the times there is a local high when those moving averages cross happen. And you target down into the 55EMA.
In downtrend, whenever 5EMA crosses above the 21, it might retest the 5 agaiin to the downside and should go for the 55EMA which in a downtrend, is always higher than the price action.
I will try to share more examples when I will have more time on my hands, so people can have a better idea, because the thread I made is very sophisticated and it is very exact, understandable that it's hard to comprehend trading when it comes to chat/messages, it's always very tough to explain a strategy, because there's a lot to explain.
I tried my best and I always endorse to trade demo and check the charts history based on this strategy once you understood, and see how many times it plays out.
That will give you a better idea whether it's something you can add to your trading journey.
It's in YOUR interest to prove yourself right. Show us YOUR data with enough sample size to prove that indeed your trading strategy actually gives the user a win rate of 60% or more.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
What would you say if someone came here, tried your strategy, and actually lost money instead of making money?
Hey thanks OP for being the rare guy to post some actual trades. I'm the first to point out success needs to be qualified so I appreciate your post.
Personally, I don't trade anymore but I'm still interested and EMA is one of my favorites, because its so dynamic, especially for crypto this is important.
One comment I have tho is that 2 years isn't really enough to test for bear conditions since BTC has basically been on a very long extended bullrun Needs a full cycle but 2 years of data is very good.
Just a question also what is the frequency of your data? When in forex I was only confident in data of over 1000s trades for dailies but for weeklies which fit your EMA I guess I'm happy with 1000+.
I am tired of repeating, but read the first thread and read in fully before commenting with nonsense.
No one said for you to trade real money, I said many times to focus on the history and demo trading.
I will ignore such stupid comments from now on, because you're just trying to blame or to make me look wrong meanwhile I am trying to help and sharing what is truly working.
Based on your response, I can say that your trading experience is also on a very early stage, due to the way you comprehend.
As somebody that's using 20, 50 and 200 EMA to trade, this is pretty much a new for me, and it piqued my interest.
I'm still trading right now, but I already shifted from using EMA's alongside RSI and MACD to focusing on trendlines as long as support and resistances. I already took a note on this strategy that you shared, and I will be using it in the future. Thanks for sharing BTW. I mean there are many traders online that are sharing strategies here and there, but let's take note as well that there's no "perfect" strategy. We can copy OP's strategy, but without proper risk management, and psychology, we might still end up losing our money.
As for OP, maybe sharing some real time trades coming from you where you used that strategy would be a big help. I would appreciate it. We, newbies would appreciate it.
You said you have discovered this strategy 2 year ago and it works but you only take trade when the signal shows up strong. I want to know if you have been using just this strategy to trade only Bitcoin for that two years or you have use the strategy to trade other coins.
When I started trading years back, it was with indicators but now, I don't even trust indicators anymore because I believe it doesn't work for me again. Although, I have my own strategy that works.
First, thank you for bringing this strategy to us, but honestly, I am surprised that you claimed to be trading for 9 years and still using the moving average crossover strategy. This is the beginner's strategy and can be varied with many MA periods depending on how fast or slow you want the crossing to be. Well, good luck with that, but make sure you use a very strict money and risk management with this strategy and pray that the trend of the market last longer when you use it to trade. That's how you can be successful using the strategy.
I will tell you something that comes from my experience, the EMA's are being used since 1750, trading wasn't even a thing, but EMA's were used to calculate average prices. So EMA's are good for the trend trading, if you follow the trend, they are the best to use and easiest as well. I do not use "new" strategies, I always back test and EMA's prove to still be working flawlessly in all of the major financial markets.
If the day comes and EMA's will be proved wrong, that's when I will be looking for a new strategy, but until it works, I will not change but try to make it better.
I know a lot of people who are into trading for a living and they also use EMA. This is no beginner strategy, it is very complex if you try to do the things right. Yes, many beginners might use it too, but it doesn't mean they use it the right way.
I did test it only on Bitcoin my friend. I saw it working on other assets sometimes, but I did not study the statistics on those.
On bitcoin, the statistics of this strategy playing out is quite high and if you have an idea on how to manage your risk properly, definitely you'll find value in this strategy.
what strategy do you use? and how came that you cannot trust the indicators? Maybe those indicators are low quality? I have indicators that I use for the past few years and they give me a good hedge.
So if you're already using pretty much the same EMA's try adjusting them to my set up, use more fibonacci numbers.
20 is not a fibonacci number / 21 is .
50 is not / 55 is.
Fibonacci numbers are just more likely to be found in nature so we want to bet more on those.
eMA/RSI/MACD is a solid strategy, my advice is not to do any trendlines, but clear horizontal support and resistance, trendlines can just be made in so many ways and you never know which one will react the biggets.
Exactly, there is no perfect strategy! But this is the exact reason why I want you guys to learn it, test it with demo money and only if you see results, that's when you already know what you can do / achieve with it.
+ when you have a proper strategy you can just skip everything and stick to trading when your strategy allows you to go and take a trade, this is very important as you're following a strategy with high win rate + you don't trade every move.
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Thank you for everyone that is thankful and is appreciating this post.
That's the whole point of it, not to make you gamble or go trading, but to give you an idea how you can work out a better strategy that allows you to be more on the profitable side.
Whoever was attacking, just doesn't realize that he can basically TEST everything without really wasting a dime on it.
Indicators are only a signal of potential market trends, whether bearish or bullish. This is just a statistic, nothing more. When talking about statistics, it will require analysis. You must understand very well how trading strategies are carried out using the wrong indicators in predicting trends. This is certainly not the wrong indicator, but maybe our analysis is not precise enough. If you find a suitable strategy, it indicates that the market conditions when you analyze are still stable, so your analysis can be in accordance with the trend.
Statistics are calculated from an analysis. It's not like I created it, this is how market works, since late 1700.
BWT: https://www.tradingview.com/x/4Ei8HpRt/
currently again same strategy showing short on bitcoin, lets see
OK, then are you 100% SURE that "your strategy" will give your listeners/followers a l60%+ win-rate" if they follow "your strategy" very closely over a large sample size?
OP may say that I'm stupid, and that's OK, BUT we have already seen these sorts of claims of "win-rates" before. How many of them actually helped plebs like us?
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Yes, I know a bit about indicators, but for a stable market, maybe the indicator can be valid. But, for a volatile market, no matter how good your analysis is, if you don't pay attention to the current market, you will experience false indicators. In crypto, doesn't this often happen? Of course, I'm not laughing at your analysis which is 60% successful, meaning you managed to enter and exit well. What I wanted to say before was "is the indicator wrong, or are we wrong in reading the indicator" that's all.