Bitcoin Will Weather This Storm. Insights from the 4-Year Trend

Bitcoin has had some really frightening lows, but also some epic highs. These tough times never last forever, and we should recognize that. Right now we see red, but trust me, green is coming soon enough. Every time the market turns red and the news blares about "The End," I think back to all the past challenges. Bitcoin has faced countless obstacles, but it’s always managed to bounce back, turning every crash into fuel for the next big surge and setting new all-time highs. It’s never failed us! If you're unsure now, just look at the past. Let’s talk about those "fatal" crashes: In 2011, Bitcoin dropped from around $30 to just $2, which is like a 93% fall. Back then, critics thought it was game over. Then from 2014 to 2015, during the Mt. Gox debacle, Bitcoin went from $1,100 down to $170, about an 84% drop. The biggest exchange got wrecked, but Bitcoin held on. And who can forget the great crypto winter of 2018? Bitcoin fell from $20k to $3,100 another 84% drop. Media outlets and haters published a ton of "obituaries" for Bitcoin, but guess what? It still came back. The most recent drop was from 2021 to 2022, during the chaos from China's crackdown and the FTX/Luna mess, where Bitcoin plummeted from $69k to $15k, a 77% drop. Confidence hit rock bottom, but look where Bitcoin stands now, even after the recent dip. Cycles Are Real: A lot of folks don’t realize or refuse to accept that Bitcoin operates in cycles. We’ve seen this play out before. Cycle Peaks: Total euphoria and new all-time highs (2013, 2017, 2021, and probably 2025). Cycle Bottoms: 2014, 2018, and 2022 when optimism was almost non-existent.

Of course it will survive, it has faced much bigger threats than a 50% drawdown (so far). Bitcoin is still really volatile but that’s a feature not a bug, one which you can really use to your advantage if you know how to read the four year cycles.

Good now do the math for what those drops represent - 2011, 10500000 Bitcoins so 28x10500000 > $300 millions - 2014, 15000000 Bitcoins > 900x15000000 > 13.5 billion - 2018, 18000000 Bitcoins > 17000x18000000 > 300 billion - 2021, 19000000 Bitcoins > 55000x19000000 >  1 trillion - 2026, 20000000 Bitcoins > 66000x20000000 > 1.32 trillion So which one was the worst?

I just noticed that each drop the percentage between the ATH and the floor decreases each cycle. Based on that, Bitcoin each cycle gets more stable and less volatile, although as the market cap increases, the bigger the drop number looks.

The scary lows are just now part of the history of how Bitcoin grown from an asset that's not given attention by the masses to being the one of the most desired asset to have. Nice observation. That's actually what is happening right now and it's very noticeable. Each cycle that passes by, we're getting lower increase for the ATHs and then for the bottom of each of these cycles.

If you have come to be around Bitcoin for at least 4 years you will have experienced this current market shift before, its nothing new and if anything the OP better hold on tight because its going to get "scarier" for the uninitiated For those who are seasoned to this type of market movement and who are advocates of "buy low, sell high" this is a great opportunity to increase HODL'ings as LFC_Bitcoin suggests.

Although I believe the traditional "cycles" trend no longer exists but we have something close to it with smaller rises and smaller crashes. Which is why we didn't have a massive rise before all this dramatic crash began In any case it is good to remined the newcomers to take a look back at the history of all these ups and downs. All it takes is go to one of those sites that has a price chart history. I remember back when I entered the bitcoin world price was $400-$500 and with my luck it continued to go down constantly until it reached $150 and that was a good first experience... Do you think anybody minds having bought bitcoin at $500 because it dumped back then?! LOL

I first encountered Bitcoin when at $400-$800 the first time around 2017, I experienced every crashes and pump till today and then I never worry about the price anymore, I am used to it to the point I get happy whenever it crashes, many wonder why. I see every failed time as an opportunity to grab more, why newbies sees it as an end time, end of the story. What's more interesting is that, history repeats itself in every industry. So it is in the crypto industry. Those new in the industry has to study history to flourish or perish at their ignorance.

yea for sure btc history is basically crash then panic then comeback at new highs. the red days feel scary but they are always been part of the cycle. for a lot of people dips are just loading zones not the end of the story. Patience usually pays in this game and only the patient will come out on top

I don't like it when people say bad things about Bitcoin, especially saying it is going to end. I often hear people say that, and they usually appear when the Bitcoin price drops, but disappear when the Bitcoin price soars. I think that is unfair at all. They should correct their mistakes and tell the truth, instead of empty talk. If they knew about the impact of the Bitcoin halving cycle, the growing adoption of Bitcoin, and the history of Bitcoin, they wouldn't say such negative things. Moreover, if they try to compare Bitcoin to other types of assets, Bitcoin certainly wins in terms of limited supply and scarcity, and in terms of freedom (no authority). I am sure there are many more advantages of Bitcoin over other assets, but I think these two are enough for comparison. Cmiiw.

I completely agree with you looking back it's on record that Bitcoin has experienced even worst times than what we are currently experiencing so it's certain that Bitcoin will survive this storm in terms of the dwindling price in the market.When ever there is a drastic drop in price like this it's certain that the price of Bitcoin is about moving high and hitting all time high, the statistics that are here should sound as a lesson to anyone that is doubting if Bitcoin can really survive this dip period.

Considering that Bitcoin has been through several times worse than this, it shouldn't be so alarming to see a market drop like this. Even if the market drops 43% from its current ATH, the price will surely recover, and Bitcoin will then rise again and surpass its ATH. This is undeniable, as history shows a pattern of recovery after major corrections. So, what can be done now is to be patient and wait for the market to improve. While it's uncertain when that will happen, it will certainly recover and return to its bullish trend.

yeah no shit sherlock we been through this song and dance a dozen times already the "storm" as you call it is just monday for most of us who actually remember gox or the 2018 winter you think a 77 percent drop is bad try losing everything on an exchange that went poof the lesson isnt just survival its about who gets rekt and who cashes out those "precious hands" you talk about often get shaken out at the bottom lol @stompix has a good point though the actual dollar amount wiped out each time gets insane this isnt just retail hodling anymore big money plays a different game so yeah it survives but dont pretend its a walk in the park for everyone its always an accumulation zone for the ones with dry powder

I totally agree with this. The good part is we didn't hear someone telling us again that Bitcoin is dying or Bitcoin is dead. And the best part of it is we still have a chance to buy at a much cheaper price. If they called it a crash, then for us who know about Bitcoin, this is a great opportunity to buy and accumulate more to hold for decades. Since the bottom keeps rising in every cycle. Even though there's a Bitcoin ETF and big institutions on the market, the cycle still repeats.

The Bitcoin market has been red this few months, and instead of recovering, it is dipping more and more. making a lot of person's to panic sell. But if we take a look at the history of Bitcoin we are going to discover that, Bitcoin price has dropped beyond human imaging many times before this present dip. And Presently the Bitcoin market is discovery gradually, which with time it will recover fully. When ever the Bitcoin market turns red, it is an opportunity to accumulate as much Bitcoin as can and hold for long term. And not the time to panic or to sell out holding. Only those who where never investing in Bitcoin with long term mindset will panic and sell When ever Bitcoin market turns red.

People are running away right now thinking it is dying again and years from now Bitcoin will double, triple or what ever it will do and people will spam the Forum again with Topics about being too late, never being able to accumulate Bitcoin at that price et cetera.  It is definitely a cycle, people only need a little bit of thinking and really little research to find out. Good thing there is Artificial Intelligence which is always a hit or miss but easier to ask, but even that does not help them out.  If they do not want to learn the easy way, they will learn it the hard way.

I think they are only spreading FUD to make many people sell their Bitcoin during the price of Bitcoin decreasing and as you have said disappeas after the price soar. Let's just say that those people the ones who doesn't like Bitcoin or a hater of Bitcoin where they only appear when it's on down side and never appear when it's on good side and are the ones who have weak hands and mentality. During my stay in this forum, I always see people like that and from every 4 year cycle.

Alot of people, both Bitcoin enthusiasts and Bitcoin critics understand that bitcoin moves in cycles. It is just surprising that at every bearish season, the narrative about bitcoin suddenly changes. They ignore historical facts which proved that every phase we meet is part of the cycle, with just time, that phase will pass and everyone will go home with profits if only they hold on during those vulnerable periods. Bitcoin is a beautiful thing to invest in,  it is very neccessary to ignore the negativity and focus on being a strategic investor.

For those who have been in bitcoin long enough I think almost all will say the same thing because this condition always happens and indeed we cannot change it because after all fluctuations, volatility is part of bitcoin that we cannot just separate. It's just that sometimes there are still a lot of fomo who always dramatize this as if this is the end even though this might be their reaction to buying bitcoin when it is still at a much higher price but indeed their way is a little excessive as if this is the apocalypse for investors. Even though this condition is normal because we do need corrections or crashes like this with several purposes such as eliminating those who are not sure but still insist on being in bitcoin and for much greater growth in the future. There is no need to panic excessively because everything will return to its original form.

If we disregard everything, and just stick on percentage drop, we can see that 2011 was the worst. Anyway, it is obvious that Bitcoin will recover.  Thus, 4 year cycle pattern seems yet to be broken.  This reminds me of someone saying the super cycle thing, saying that Bitcoin might not follow the 4-year cycle pattern, many seem to believe it, and yet just some days passed, and the Bitcoin market proved them wrong. It looks like Bitcoin sticks to its regular 4-year cycle, so we might see another ATH in 2029?