Hey everyone!
Hope you're all doing great!
So, the next Bitcoin halving is set to happen in about 2 years and 163 days. If we do the math, that puts the date around June 10, 2028.
I've noticed some folks saying we’re back in a bear market since the last halving period is over. But then there are analysts claiming Bitcoin could still hit a new all-time high in the first quarter of 2026. What do you all think about this? I’d love to hear everyone's thoughts. Personally, I believe Bitcoin might actually reach a new all-time high early next year (just my opinion, do your own research!). There was also that recent post from CZ, the former CEO of Binance, saying that 2026 is going to be a super bullish year for crypto. He’s a big Bitcoin holder, so maybe there’s something to it? What do you guys think? Is he just trying to lure us in or could it actually happen?
Countdown to the next Bitcoin halving
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The fact that a person has a large amount of Bitcoin doesn't mean his prediction will be true thou. In fact, the more Bitcoin they have, the more bullish they will be.
A year is a very long time; a lot can happen in a year. We might see a new ATH, and we can also see it drop to $70k. After all, this year we saw Bitcoin at $76k, and we still saw Bitcoin at $126k, so if it happens like that next year, it won't be a new thing.
I don't think we will see a ridiculous movement next year. I don't believe the price will crash to $50 or $60k, are some people predict, and I don't believe it will get to 150-200k, as others predict. I believe Bitcoin would maintain the range it is now. We might get a new ATH, but it would be in the $130k region.
hodler_b34rFull Member
Posts: 121 · Reputation: 453
#3Jun 29, 2023, 09:23 AM
I recommend this website for Bitcoin halving countdown as it has more than that, with information about block heights, block rewards, year of halving and more with tables and charts.
https://www.coinwarz.com/bitcoin-halving
If you want to have more details, not in years but in Epoch era, you can get them from Bitcoin wiki.
https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Controlled_supply
Why do you have to take CZ's opinion as a serious one?
He can be right, can be wrong, but he is not responsible for your money, investment and its ROI.
There will be as many predictions as possible for next year, but its still all speculation. I will say it again, its rare to see someone who will perfectly predict the Bitcoin market, except for the fact that we all know its been rising over the years..Beyond maybe some accurate short-term predictions because they know something that most people might not..
Whichever way you think, just be ready to buy the Dip because it might just be last time you ever see the flash again .
I would have said CZ has the powers to make bitcoin either bullish or bearish, but that is not the case. He is an investor too that also aims for a bullish season just like everyone else. CZ is merely speculating base on the experiences he has had so far, but I wouldn't want anyone to start making decisions base on what CZ said. If they are too confused and don't know who to believe or not, they should simply buy bitcoins if they can and keep hodling. Just as promise444c5 said, they might not have the chance to do that again. There is no other better way to prepare for the halving than this.
hodler_b34rFull Member
Posts: 121 · Reputation: 453
#6Jul 1, 2023, 09:03 PM
CZ sold his apartment for buying bitcoins many years ago but with his wealth now, he is no longer need to be very excited and bullish with Bitcoin as he won't need to be richer by Bitcoin value and price growth in short temr. He knows that Bitcoin will be there and will grow up more, it's natural growth from Bitcoin even he won't have to do anything.
With community, they must learn about Bitcoin, focus on its fundamentals, and get rid of any dependence on opinion of anyone such as CZ. Rather than waiting for opinions and tweets from CZ or other influencers, they can read this book.
The bullish case for Bitcoin.
CZ used supercycle on his discussion, parabolic can be either up way or down way but massively. I do not believe any of them including CZ but it is not bad to DCA instead. All I know is that in the next 3 years, bitcoin will be more than $100000 as it will hit more all-time high as usual but how next year would be is what I do not know.
In this, to each their own. We think that the bear market is ahead because that's usually how the cycle plays.
I hope that you guys are right. We want to see a parabolic move by 2026.
Because that's what we're not expecting to happen and it's the opposite which is the bear. But if it turns out that you guys are right then, that's props to you who have predicted it that it should fine by that time.
I would be happy with both the outcomes, honestly.
if you keep stacking BTC, you will be a winner either way, and if you don't sell all of your bags because it fell / it rose to an all time high
Keeping the balance is where the success lies.
For me since the most recent Bitcoin halving has already happened and is long over I expect the Bitcoin market to be bullish, so for that reason am likely to agree with those analysts who said that Bitcoin can still reach all time high in the first quarter of next year 2026. But note this am not agreeing to those analysts for agreeing sake, myself is also seeing the potential in Bitcoin to reach all time high next year.
And Concerning what CZ said that Bitcoin will be parabolic next year, for me his partially correct with his analysis. And again note this, Am not agreeing with CZ because his holding large portion of bitcoin hell no. I compared few analysis from reliable source, and after comparing them, I was fully convinced with CZ saying and his analysis, so I see Bitcoin going parabolic next year.
maxi_alphaFull Member
Posts: 40 · Reputation: 289
#11Jul 2, 2023, 03:42 PM
Many experts make many comments, but there is no condition that every person's comment will be correct. However, in this case, I can say based on real experience that the price of Bitcoin will definitely go up, but you have to be patient. It is a matter of time. Bitcoin is gradually increasing according to the cycle. The price of Bitcoin has changed greatly over time. However, since we are currently moving towards a market where the price of Bitcoin is corrected, even if the price of Bitcoin is dumping, there will be a positive side for us because Bitcoin will be suitable for holding more at a cheaper price. However, looking at the situation of the price of Bitcoin, it is suitable for holding in the future, so we will only move forward with the idea of holding at the present time.
CryptoW4lletMember
Posts: 17 · Reputation: 127
#12Jul 2, 2023, 03:52 PM
I'm slightly believing that we already broke the 4 year cycle because we're at the global adaptation point, unlike in the past where the crypto community is the one who's following the cycle but who knows? Everything can happen and ofc, we couldn't say that CZ is a good basis because of course, like everyone else, he's just optimistic about BTC's potential at this point.
But yeah, the halving still has a major factor when it comes to technicalities but if we're talking about the current situation of the market, no one can tell but I'm advising to be just optimistic, hours left before 2026 and I'm excited about the future of BTC next year.
Ah predictions for Bull and Bear markets all at the same time purely because nobody
knows with 100% certain whats going to happen.
The great thing about being a HODL'er is that it doesnt really matter what happens in
the short to medium term and there is no stress.
Re. the halving date of June 2028, it might seem so far away but it will come around
fairly quickly.
jake.chainSenior Member
Posts: 280 · Reputation: 1307
#14Jul 2, 2023, 06:25 PM
And so it starts!
If we remind ourselves just how near the next bitcoin halving is, we get more motivated to buy now so that we can see future returns. I fear there is no one accurate in predicting the next move of bitcoin. We will only know for sure once it happens. Some would end up wrong, some would end up right. But remember the goal is to hold long term.
Right now I have come to the conclusion that bitcoin will not do much in the coming days, it could be tricking for an all time high but it will fade when people begin to trust it too much for it to be an all time high, I just know that the bullish circle always ends around ceremonial periods and then it moves to a bearish market but if the circle changes or situation changes then we will have a totally new all time high in an unexpected time or the first quarter of 2026.
Ithink the mistake many of us in the crypto space make is assuming Bitcoin strictly follows a fixed script every cycle. Markets evolve, participants change and external factors matter more now than they did in earlier halvings. Calling this a confirmed bear market feels premature to me. At the same time, I wouldnt blindly trust bullish predictions just because they come from influential figures. CZ is extremely knowledgeable no doubt but hes also heavily exposed to crypto. So while a 2026 parabolic move is possible I see it as a probability not a promise.
Nicehash's halving event countdown and prediction date is probably the worst I can imagine. Totally laughable when they currently guesstimate it for June 27th, 2028!
I would rather stick to what e.g. mempool.space predicts, currently they estimate April 10th, 2028 and I expect it to slowly move a few days earlier, early days of April 2028 or late March 2028.
Why? Because global hashpower on the long run rises and so does difficulty which means Bitcoin protocol has to adjust for an observed average blocktime being most of the time slightly lower than 10 minutes, i.e. we reach the halving somewhat faster. The difficulty adjustments aim to bring it closer to an average of 10 minutes (within the difficulty epoch period of 2016 blocks).
I'm not sure the halving will hit as it used to. Everyone's watching now. The surprise factor is gone. Price hasn't broken down structurally. It's just sitting there, which is frustrating to people because everybody wants to be in constant motion. But sideways action is where actual foundation gets built. It's boring but necessary.
I wouldn't bet against new ATH completely but I wouldn't bet my bank account on it. Too many variables. Macro conditions are more important now than they were in previous cycles. Institutional money and moving on risk assessment and regulatory clarity. We're still working on figuring that part out.
About CZ's comment, he's not stupid and he's not lying. But he's also not neutral. His position determines his outlook. That's just human nature. I think there's real potential for growth in the next year or two but to call it parabolic assumes that everything is perfectly aligned. That rarely happens. What I do trust is that bitcoin keeps on going irrespective of what any individual forecasts.
Many people are used to the bitcoin price following the historical trend and are fixated on it that they are not open to changes, I usually say history cannot be same all the time. This year we have a change in the historical trend where we saw a year that is supposed to be bullish ends in bearish conditions. Next year I think we will also have changes of historical trend because this years break might also affect it,
All this predictions from influencers are nothing but just mere predictions which is heavily aligned with what they also wished to have in bitcoin and nothing more, an investor will be bull is all round while an hater will be spreading FUDs
I understand the position of people in the calibre of CZ when it comes to the crypto space, they are more like an authority and so they have so much information at their disposal that they can say a lot with authority and a lot of persons will give credence to their taughts, but then even with that they can also be pushing the narratives for their own benefits for some reasons but then it is important for you to always do your own research even with that so that you will be able to make conscious financial decisions.
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