The CPI report is coming up fast.
Are we going to see inflation rise again, or is it time for inflation to cool off and let the market take off?
I’ve got a hunch that this CPI number might come in higher than what the market expects because of the tariff situation.
What does everyone think? Is the CPI going to be the reason for a market pump, or are we heading down from here?
Whatever it would be, I think it won't push the market that much; even if it does, it would be a short-term effect if it won't be followed by events just like that..
Do you really think that Consumer Price Index will have direct effect on Bitcoin? No I don't think so. It won't change what is happening with the price of bitcoin if the CPI is released. Bitcoin is not fiat that interacts directly with government policies and the outcome of increase or reduction of price of goods and services.
If it were forex market then it can be a spontaneous change of market direction because traders will react to the announcement immediately but for bitcoin, I don't think it will. Bitcoin is not fiat that has direct adverse effect on inflation or that depreciates with inflation of fiat or prices of consumer goods and services.
However, it can have a snowball effect where hodlers keep accumulating Bitcoin for the fear of inflation on their fiat liquidity or savings.
But I think this thread best fit the trading discussion board.
It may have effect. If it is positive news for bitcoin, the price may go up, but which can be little. If it is a bad news for bitcoin, the price of bitcoin may fall a little but the price will increase back.
If bitcoin is mentioned by the OP, it supposed to be on speculation board. But when bitcoin is not mentioned, I do not know where it would belong, but I think it can stay on speculation board.
It's difficult to predict the market reaction regardless of the outcome of the CPIs due to the uncertainty around the world.
Unfortunately, the expected CPIs did not follow your prediction, they were all released lower than economists' forecasts. This indicates that the US inflation is not as bad as people project it, and how the media makes it look.
CPI data is one of the indicators for entrepreneurs and it is often a sentiment that needs to be considered in terms of economics or micro. However, at this time I think it has not had much influence, especially since the FED is still waiting and seeing to lower interest rates even though the president is a bit insistent on expediting it. The market is still good and is not immediately selling BTC at this time because the conditions are still warm and rising and this can be seen from the purchase requests coming from various large institutions at this time.
This is logical because as the price of bicoin increases, so as well then stock market has also been inflated on a highily cost of goods and same time the increase of tarrif is increasing the stock rates.
However, as it stance currently, there's said to be a "tie/equilibrium" for now but while we know the governments will soon get nervous over the tariff rules being the tool of manipulating the economy markets, there'll be a dialogue centered to normalize the economy again for the convenient of the masses then, the central markets will fall while bitcoin keep to rise but if the economy market resists the reshape of affordability considering the average citizens promoting stock continues increase, economy institution investors will flee for bitcoin which would promote more bitcoin price increments.
So, when evaluating the purchase power of the stocks with bitcoin, it'd be said to have deflated on the fact that bitcoin price has increased far ahead the stock value rate in the previousnand recent time.
It is easy to measure. Just go to the grocery store, pay your bills, pay rent, etc. and compare that with previous years and see how higher it is. It will be more accurate compared to what CPI they release.
Announcing the "number" should have zero effect on the overall trend because inflation and recession are not things that start or stop when that number is announced. They are an ongoing thing.
However, temporarily it can create some hype or despair where some weak hands act irrationally and panic buy or sell which is good for day traders not for speculating on the long term trend.
The reason I'm of the opinion that it won't have direct effect on bitcoin but a snowball kind is because bitcoin is not fiat that depreciates in value because of inflation and hodlers understand this aspect, so may not rush into buying or selling like what happens in forex. Hodlers can continue DCA which may have gradual effect.
You are right but Bitcoin wasn't mentioned by Op, we understand and assume op was talking about bitcoin trading. Nice to see that finally it got moved from bitcoin discussion board.
Exactly what I mean also. People like to react to positive and negative news but what we see at last is that bitcoin price will increase. I see bitcoin following its own pattern which makes it am appreciative asset. I have noticed many bad news for bitcoin that you will see its price fall but later not long after the price will begin to increase and later increase more than expected. Just as pooya87 posted already, probably it can only be good for day trading or maybe scalping because a day or many hours sometime can even be too late as bitcoin could have increased back but it depends.
Alright, let say the data from what was presented wasn't actually a reflection of what economist experts had predicted the CPI to be looking like. But my question is, does this information in the difference between the actual and previous really represent what the prices of products and services are out there when we go to buy them, because if get to check the prices of groceries in 2024 and now 2025 the price difference is much which has made many people tightening their budget like never before. Even credit card debt has spiked, which IMO doesn't correlate with this data in that table.
You are making a good point, regardless, what I replied to was what the speculation on the then-coming CPI figures states, and not on whether or not the US inflation is on the rise. The prediction was that the CPI would be higher than the expected prediction, but it wasn't so, and even the economists failed on their higher US inflation compared to the actual release. That's my plight, and of course, higher or not, it doesn't change the fact that the US is battling inflation now.
Even the OP I replied to has opened another thread acknowledging his CPI prediction was wrong: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5543350.new#new
I hope CPI can go down a bit so that it can be good enough for the market condition because apart from CPI data, we also need to look at PPI and NFP data to see where the current inflation rate is. Because if CPI starts to go down, of course the inflation rate can also go down and that can be good news because maybe investors will come back into the crypto market and the stock market to do their activities as investors. And I hope that it can have a good impact on Bitcoin so that it can trigger an increase in other coins such as altcoins.
I think it all depends on when the arithmetic announcement event will be made because in this case of bitcoin being proof itself as a potential hedge economy against inflation, paraventurely when the stock values is highly on inflation, investors are diversified to bitcoin which more buying or bitcoins is potential to push it price upwards.
Therefore, bitcoin price would be maneuvered deflating the market while it value is increased.
Keynote is that the economy market events of course do have effects over bitcoin price because the value proposition that attracts investors to adopt bitcoin is mostly the devastation in the economy market.