February 5, 2026: an event with a 0.05 percent chance

Got some interesting points from this article: Goldman Sachs’ prime brokerage team just dropped a report claiming February 4 was brutal for multi-strategy funds, hitting a Z-score of 3.5. Basically, this type of event is super rare, with only a 0.05% chance of happening way less common than a typical 3-sigma event, which has a roughly 0.27% chance of occurring, often called a black swan. On January 30, IBIT dropped by 5.8% from the day before, causing a record $530 million in redemptions. Then on February 4, they saw another $370 million pulled out as prices continued to decline. So with the market situation on February 5, it's pretty logical to expect capital outflows of at least $500 million to $1 billion. But here's the kicker: the opposite is happening. We’re actually seeing a ton of net subscriptions. IBIT added about 6 million shares that day, which is over $230 million more in assets under management. Other Bitcoin ETFs are pulling in capital too, with the total ETF scene attracting over $300 million in net inflows. I don’t mind these dips if we can get one of those 0.05% chance spikes for a change. Something feels off with this dump, especially since we haven’t seen any solid rebounds since it started, considering how low-key the previous bull run was.