How does a $40 Trillion asset have Meme coin-like volatility?

Hey everyone, For a long time, many of us were led to believe that when Bitcoin hits the gold market cap of around $12 trillion, it would become more stable and less volatile. But now that gold is approaching $40 trillion, its price movements look more like those of a meme coin rather than a stable asset. It's pretty wild to see gold's market cap triple like that. Feels like the Fed just printed a bunch of trillion-dollar bills and went on a gold buying spree. So why can't the Fed do the same and just buy up every single Bitcoin out there?

The government will rather print more money to buy gold than buying Bitcoin, you have to understand this thing clearly to keep yourself up from being burden with this comparison, market cap alone doesn't aquote stability, there are alot of compounding factor that keep an asset stable and Bitcoin doesn't have such market elements that keeps an asset stable we shouldn't expect price stability from Bitcoin.

Things do not work this way.  They can not purchase all the Bitcoin that exists.  For example.  They can not purchase mine, I am holding on to them and will particularly have a stronger grip on them if they decide to start purchasing all of it. A significant Market Cap does not mean it becomes impossible to manipulate a Price or a Chart.  Particularly when the supply, the order book is short of people willing to sell. Then the path is free to a much higher level when a lot of buyers come in.  But there is much more to this.  The price of Gold is closely related to the status of the World.  If the fear of a soon to come war appears, Gold will inevitably start becoming more and more expensive.  And the World has not been in the best status lately so this was some what expected. If The United States decides to start printing Trillions of Dollars only to purchase Bitcoin, which would be the stupidest thing they could try to do that would actually crash the Dollar entirely, then it will be a cat and mouse game that they will have to play.  The more that they purchase continuously, the higher the Price they will have to purchase at.  Because almost all Bitcoin in existence means purchasing even from people who consider the real value of Bitcoin to be at least 400,000 Dollars. Not to mention that it would crash its value in the end and all their Trillions spent would become a void of Money.  What will The United States do with all the Supply?  If they sell any of it, they will not own all of it any more. They could do it in time by purchasing here and there like Saylor does.  They will never target ALL the Supply to be in their hands because it would not make any sense.

I raise you XAU EUR since mid 2013: What does the recent fall say to you? Does it look like a memecoin when you zoom out? No, right?

So if it is not stable and instead volatile then how can we use it as currency unless we start pricing in sats not $usd

I mean 10% moves in a nearly $40 trillion marketcap asset is unheard of in market charts history. Also who had the money to 3x gold marketcap? Central banks?

Do you think gold would be immune from speculation? There's really too much money to go by and it's also too disconnected from the real economy. Our generation had lived through too many bubbles. Telco bubble, .com bubble, global financial crisis and mortgage bubble.... Maybe it was time for a few of the assets that started being over inflated past COVID to experience a correction too. Because sure stores of value should go up by inflation but gold was overdoing it a little.

This is my opinion so take it as you want.  But I believe the times of Bitcoin being used as a Currency is long gone.  It was attempted, it failed many times, see El Salvador as an example.  Bitcoin does extremely well as a store of value but it does not do as well as a MAIN STREAM way of payment.  Sure it will do excellent as a payment method in smaller shops here and there, in Peer to Peer exchanges of goods et cetera.  But without a good Second Layer solution and acceptance from larger countries around the World, it will not be the widely used Currency some people fantasize about. You can not really price things in Satoshis.  I mean you can.  But it will be difficult for you considering every thing else is priced in Dollars.  Yes you can do this and put a fixed price of 10 Satoshis per loaf of bread.  But most people will think in terms of Dollars still.  Because if 10 Satoshis is equal to 1 Dollar today and can be 3 Dollars next month, people will probably not want to pay for your 10 Satoshi loaf of bread any more and they will move to some body else who prices their bread in the equivalent of Dollars.

No government body will want to crash their fiat currency. That aside, even if a body or an individual has enough money to cover the entire market cap of bitcoin they still can't get all because those who are not selling will not sell. I feel like with time, these buyers like  Saylor will have no other option than to sell and then buy because that will be the significant way for them to acquire a huge amount. Although, I still feel like there is still chance of progressing as a means of payment while as a store of value tops other use or view points. While the scalability issue is something that has often been debated these past years, the fee has been overall good since around 2024 or 2025 till now and there are still points where it is cheaper than using fiat especially when the transaction is moving across countries, continents or regions. While this is indeed the case, the unit of sat changes with time based on the value, recall this how it has been. Also, the major issue is still the scalability issue because if the Sat value has increased in the corresponding fiat then maybe the user can use a lower sat per vB.

Don't tell you me you believe the naive statement made by the influencers and the Bitcoin whales, which said the 4 years cycle is over when they don't understand the basic concept behind the 4 years cycle, they only have a huge fund to invest in Bitcoin. Bitcoin will only be less volatile when the total 21 million coin is mined, which will make a lot of miners who dump their bags, and market makers who are manipulating the market care more about their holdings. Do you understand the consequences of the Fed holding atleast 61% of all Bitcoin, not to mention buying all? Gold make the surge due to the Greenland and other statements made bythe  President, which affected VIX and DXY. Once the dollar index downtrend, people will find safe haven in Gold, and that's the reason behind the unexpected surge in price of Gold

When people say 'Currency', they usually mean the El Salvador kind of usage.  As in legal tender and main stream usage.  It is definitely progressing and it is an exceptional Asset for moving across the World for sure.  But people expected much more than this.  I did too in the past.  I am now aware that the chances of this happening are very little to none. Look at what the European Commission says and is planning to do.  Look at what The United States is planning.  They are not planning to adopt Bitcoin.  They are planning to compete against it.  Yes, all the Cons are there.  Centralization issue, Privacy issue et cetera.  But I doubt the general population will care as long as they get a Digital Currency that is fast, has zero Fees et cetera.  Other wise if they did, Bitcoin would have been way more adopted today.

Achieving a higher gold market cap doesn't necessarily mean massive fiat printing. There are some investment instruments around the world, each with its own market cap. Geopolitics can disrupt some or even entire capital market sectors, driving capital flows into more stable instruments. In this regard, gold has been a trusted hedge for hundreds of years. If there is no approved policy agreement to make Bitcoin a new fiat-optional reserve asset or simply buy it for their strategic reserves, the Fed won't do so, even if your assumption that they just printed a large amount of money is correct.

It becomes less volatile if we have so many people holding it (fairly distributed across) and not just single entities holding chunks, and when they decide to sell, it's doomsday. This is what is happening to Gold. We have people/institutions that have so much money and can decide to buy a good fraction of gold in the market, leading to a price spike along with FOMO from other traders. The opposite happens if they decide to sell abruptly.

It goes to show that hype beats logic. Even gold isn't free of speculation. I don't really believe an asset can be a stable, the only stable asset is an asset where the price is gated and controlled by centralized entity. In free market, a stable value for an asset is just a wishful thinking. A volatile price is the truest form of free market where demand and supply freely decide the price of an asset. On another note, the M2 supply did keep increasing year by year with rapid pace. A chart comparing M2 supply with XAU would be awesome in this case. The rise in value of gold perfectly reflect the money inflation.

Unfortunately it's because the large exchanges have been treating it like a memecoin for the past 6 months. It's so fucking stupid, I don't even know what to say. Perhaps they overleveraged in 2024 and now they're in trouble...

Bitcoin was never created to be a stable decentralized digital currency, and I doubt if it's ever going to be due to its fluctuating digital nature, making it's demand and supply ratio have a big influence over what it's current price will be. So this rumor about Bitcoin been stable after it's market cap crosses $40 trillion should be disregard as not been true. Because the current market cap of Bitcoin is $1.3 Trillion, and for it to hit $40 trillion, it simply means it's current market cap needs to go 31x, which also means that the price of one Bitcoin needs to be worth over $2million per BTC. And we all know that such is not possible in the next 10 years, realistically speaking.

As one main in a suit said: "Wake up.. and smell the ashes "

It was all the leveraged traders getting flushed out. Gold simply went back down to its natural levels after clearing out the leveraged longs. When will people learn not to play with leverage? It causes unnatural distortions and bubbles in the market. Despite the big shake out gold is still up almost double in price since a year ago (January 2025).

Because this is wrong. High market cap does not take volatility away. If gold at over $30 trillion is still volatile, how do you think Bitcoin would be different at $12 trillion? For an asset to be non-volatile, people need to stop selling too much. If a good majority of people who hold Bitcoin don't sell their Bitcoin no matter what, it won't be volatile, or at least the price won't drop. Let's assume this hypothesis So if the fed print all those trillions of dollars just to buy Bitcoin, their demand for Bitcoin will push the price further up because more people will want to buy because of FOMO. So if the Fed originally planned to print $2 trillion to buy off all of Bitcoin, they might now need an extra $1 trillion. That is how it will continue pushing the demand up and increasing the price. Then you have to look at the effect of printing over $3 trillion within a short time on the value of the US dollar. Too much money and reduced demand will cause the value of the currency to drop drastically. Then if the Fed succeeds in buying all the Bitcoin, it will become worthless. Since there is no more demand, the price of Bitcoin will drop, and they might incur losses of over $2 trillion.

Yeah I agree if the central banks used their money printers to buy bitcoin instead of gold then bitcoin would be $2 million per btc easily today.