So, if you think it can, how do you see that happening?
Honestly, a lot of these influencers like Michael Saylor and Cathie Wood keep claiming Bitcoin will hit a million bucks in 5 to 10 years. I can't help but think they’re either out of touch or don’t grasp the basics of economics. I’m not saying Bitcoin is worthless, but I really doubt it’ll ever get anywhere close to that amount.
Here’s my reasoning: I just can’t see how Bitcoin could reach those heights without a solid demand that isn’t just based on speculation. I call it "organic demand" that means real demand for a product or service, not just people betting on the price.
If Bitcoin were to hit that price, its market cap would be more than the combined value of the so-called magnificent seven: Google, Apple, Amazon, Tesla, Microsoft, Facebook, and Nvidia. To say that something like Bitcoin, which has no genuine source of demand, could be compared to these giants that all generate trillions in real demand is pretty wild to me.
Organic demand means having products and services that billions rely on. Think personal computers, smartphones, electric vehicles, social media, computer chips, everyday goods, etc. These are essentials people can't live without today, and the Mag 7 excel at providing them.
I just can’t put Bitcoin in that category. When you buy a shirt or some pants on Amazon, you’re not doing it to speculate or to flip it later. You do it because it's a need.
You don't have to stress yourself too much on this, all you may do now is to invest and hold, and try to see what could happen in a few years to come, another conviction you needed is to be able to check on the history of Bitcoin right from the start to this time, this will help discover how the price and market value has been increasing over time consistently.
I think comparing Bitcoin to simply buying stuff in amazon, tshirts or anything we use is totally different.
And the same thing has been said before when Bitcoin was still cheap like a couple of dollars, to a thousand and before reaching a hundred thousand.
While you've got a lot of points that it's a real speculative asset and that's one of its character. The real demand is there.
People don't buy Bitcoin because they're going to use it for their daily lives, but they're also doing just as how the usual investor buys gold for their future. I guess that's how we say that we're betting in our future.
Whether it reaches a million or two or not, it's the same as other assets and stocks that we will never know what the future holds with it.
Above all, because of the denominator. Bitcoin is priced in dollars, but no matter which fiat currency you take as a reference, they are all devaluing. The price will reach one million, but the question is what the purchasing power of that million will be then.
In five years, no way; in ten, not so impossible, but considering the last couple of cycles, it's also difficult.
You're wrong about that. Bitcoin fills a gap in the market left by fiat currencies. It's the best invention for storing and transferring wealth without relying on a centralised entity. Gold is similar, but it's more difficult to verify and very difficult to transport and transfer anonymously, especially when we're talking about medium to large amounts.
So, what are you doing in this forum?
Before the 1 million dollar figure appeared, there was a figure of $400k and even that figure had not been reached.
So anyone is free to predict the price of Bitcoin as it is normal, and if this is done by people who are quite well known in the crypto world, the purpose is to influence so that more people turn to Bitcoin to buy, and the more demand there is, the higher the price will be.
You've all right to doubt their speculation and speculate yours. It doesn't change anything that the market has to offer in the future. Don't also forget that there're also those who argued and criticized that bitcoin won't ever see a $100,000 value rate but had become a reality and so on anticipation for long term price keep soaring as much adoption is increasing while inflation also becomes a disaster diverting investors attentions to invest in it.
You either don't need to be overwhelmed with the influencers speculations because they also get it wrong in predicting bitcoin price in the short term but as an enthusiast, you just have to trust the system that it'll always be profitable in the future because as long volatility remains high with increases in adoption, bitcoin price maximization might likely be indefinite.
However, I'm also one that speculates bitcoin would get to $1,000,000 in the future but at uncertain time. If you think it's impossible then you must stay to live for as many years as Methuselah maybe at the "EDGE" where bitcoin won't be volatile. Probably where bitcoin reaches the finite of potential investment value.
In my understanding and my assessment, Bitcoin reaching a price of $1 million does not seem impossible, it could happen even in the long term considering that if Bitcoin is adopted globally, clear regulations, institutional investment and looking at current technological innovation if it runs in harmony, well if that is done I am sure that Bitcoin reaching $1 million will no longer be a debate.
I guess you need to consider whether fiat will keep its value, too. While it's unlikely to see 1 million dollar suddenly become worthless, we have examples where the finances of a country turn bad quickly. If Bitcoin still retains its value in a situation like that, then we may see its price rise significantly.
At the end of the day though, I don't care much about others' predictions. If I still believe it's useful for me, I'll continue to use and hold it. Other options to secure wealth are also important, so there's no need to go all in without proper risk management at all.
In the future, yes, it will reach a million dollars per coin, but in 5 to 10 years, it is not possible if we are to be honest and more realistic.
But headingnorth also knows that anything is very possible. Hope you know, Bitcoin can reach $200k to $300k this year?
The more people buy bitcoin to hold them for long term, it beomces more scarce which will affect the price to increase significantly.
OP, at first, I will advise you to put up your reference if you have an excerpt in your OP. However, if you had followed Bitcoin from the very moment it was launched till now, you could tell that it has come a long way from the least cent to some thousands of dollars, which has given it the place it is currently. So far, I can boldly say that Bitcoin could exceed that price you have mentioned in the years to come because its value would keep increasing as the adoption keeps increasing with time, and that alone could mean more scarcity for bitcoin which would trigered increase in the price of Bitcoin.
The volatility and lack of organic demand is exactly why I would not hold bitcoin as a long-term investment, at least not anymore.
Bitcoin is 100% dependent on investor sentiment, because anyone who holds it can and will sell it at anytime. Which also makes it highly volatile.
But such features DO make bitcoin ideal for short-term speculation and day trading for those who are into that kind of thing.
But such things are not good for long-term holding or long-term investing imo, unless you were an early adopter.
Because something goes up hundreds of per cent per year in its early years doesn't mean it will keep doing that forever.
If you invested in Tesla or Microsoft in their early years of existence you could have made similar huge returns as bitcoin did in its early years.
But you cannot expect a mature company like Tesla or MS to keep giving you exponential returns when they are now very mature companies that are
worth trillions of dollars. It is another ridiculous fallacy that keeps getting repeated ad nauseum by every idiot influencer on Youtube.
"Because bitcoin 20X'd or 100X'd in 2012 proves it will do it again in 2030!"
First the question was about bitcoin reaching $10k, it got past it and then $50k arose it went past it and then many said it will never get to a six figure and have that already smashed. For seven figure now I wouldnt outrightly say yes but historically I will say yes its actually going to get to that price, just that there is no threshold period for that but certainly not in less than 10 years to come because of the reduction in volatility.
As for your prediction of $200k above this year I dont also agree with that because this year is predominantly a bearish year and there wont be much time for such highs. But in the next cycle thats after next halving yes I expect bitcoin to go higher to this levels.
Im someone who doesn't believe Bitcoin can surpass gold in market capitalization, no matter how much more time it takes. But I have no doubt am confident that Bitcoin will reach the $1 million. Given the potential and demand for bitcoin, this is not an impossible task for it.
But the problem is this will not happen anytime soon, within the next 5 to 10 years as many investors predict. It will probably take a very long time, perhaps several decades, for Bitcoin to reach the $1m. Bitcoin has matured and its market capitalization is no longer small, expecting it to grow exponentially as it did in the past is unrealistic.
Although you say that Bitcoin does not have natural need of any business that sells simple product to people such as phones or chips but information shows change in which big companies and even countries are beginning to use Bitcoin as money setup in country to country payments and as stash to protect against the falling value of money. In my point of view although regular market remains tricky casino, start of GENIUS Act has made market need by governments that need neutral item, which creates bottom price of about 54,700 and is helped by company buyers such as BlackRock. So one million dollars price in near future may seem silly but it is Bitcoin so anytime anything can happen.
If you believe that Bitcoin will reach $1M dollars for one bitcoin, let's make your long term plan in your finance and profit withdrawal too.
Don't just think about the target price and ignore what you must do in the meantime. The $1M price can be reached but not too soon, so your plan for what to do during that waiting time is not simple.
See this interesting opinion years ago
The world GDP in 2025
It's interesting that Bitcoin ATH in this cycle is about $126,000.
And therein lies the problem with something like Bitcoin, as you have just acknowledged, and it is simply this: 100% OF BITCOIN BUYERS ARE FUTURE SELLERS.
But for the price to ever reach a million $ per coin you need to have the majority of buyers to NEVER sell their bitcoin at least not until then. But how realistic is that?
It is not likely to happen imo unless bitcoin comes up with some killer app or use case that give BILLIONS of people a compelling reason to want or need
to buy bitcoin beyond just speculating on the price going up. That is what you need to grow a very strong and stable price floor to support such a huge valuation ($1M per coin).
Why do I say it needs BILLIONS of people buying it, and not just millions? Because the Mag 7 literally have BILLIONS of customers (not speculators),
if not tens of billions buying and consuming their stuff everyday. And if bitcoin hopes to compete with that then of course it also needs to have BILLIONS
of buyers (most who aren't going to be future sellers).
I bet bitcoin movement and improvement you have seen in so many years has made you believe in bitcoin and seeing bitcoin as a valuable asset that can outgrow even gold because bitcoin grows rapidly over time.
I do have that believe just as you that bitcoin will definitely reach a million dollars in the future but just about what you stated, seeing bitcoin reach such expectations right now or in the coming few years then that just unrealistic despite the facts that bitcoin grows and it is a volatile pair but still such expectations is very high for the short period of time.
To be realistic, of course we know a lot of things are possible in the cryptocurrency world but there are some certain expectations that might be difficult and hard to achieve under some circumstances. Like about the price range expectation of $1m of course that is possible to occur but not right now or coming years. That a high patient one need to put in.
Agree with the people that said OP is thinking too much about this. My simple recipe for bitcoin's path to 1 million per bitcoin is scarcity from the lost bitcoin overtime, the never ending fiat money printing, and shift from cash society to cashless society.
All that factors could make 1 million a bitcoin real, don't need to overthink about anything else. Bitcoin has come this far because bitcoin has demand.
To be fair, Bitcoin reaching the $1M is not as easy as many Bitcoin investors are dreaming. This is much more difficult than Bitcoin going from $1 to $10k or $100k. Because we need trillions of dollars to pour into the market, not just a few billion or a few hundred billion dollars. Achieving that requires large scale involvement from organizations, governments, central banks...Bitcoin will not be able to achieve that goal if it relies solely on speculators and get rich quick schemes like us.
However, that is not impossible, because as we can all see, bitcoin is gradually attracting the attention and interest of governments and corporations. If this trend continues, in the future they will recognize it as digital gold and invest in it. 1M per bitcoin is entirely possible
I all depends on the value of the dollar. When the dollar is inflated so high that it takes a wheel-barrow of cash to buy a loaf of bread, the value of a bitcoin will be really high with relation to the dollar.