Is the H&S pattern on the BTC.DOMINANCE chart still valid?

I just came across this image on Twitter. It's not something I noticed on my own charts, so I can't take credit for it. But I know experienced traders tend to spot these patterns way before they become obvious to the rest of us. What do you all think? If this pattern plays out, it could lead to a pretty significant trend shift, at least for a few weeks or even months.

Some people may not know what Head and Shoulders formation (H&S) pattern is. The OP of this thread is only implying that bitcoin market dominance may fall and which you can see in the chart. It is good to know that bitcoin dominance that fell recently from above 60% is not because of volatile coins, it is because of the stable coins. I am referring to all stable coins like fiat pegged, those pegged to bitcoin and RWA that are tokenized.

The chart above is biased as it only plots H&S over a short period of time and does not take into account many current variables or further technical indicators to support the H&S hypothesis. Generally, even the Bitcoin dominance index should be considered a general indicator for determining market direction.

This topic is completely having no meaning to me. H&S can be used to predict possible probability of a trend reversal, but the kind of trend is not about bitcoin dominance which is not a trend at all but something normal in the crypto market. Many people posted something like bitcoin dominance will fall on social media when they were expecting altseason since 2024/2025, but ethereum disappointed them all, while the other altcoins did not pump at the same time because they are now too many, making investors to jump from one to another. H&S can be used for bitcoin price or market price of an asset prediction, but it is pointless to use it for bitcoin market dominance prediction.

According to CMC, BTC.D is around 58.5%, and the graph was published yesterday. Then the dominance was around 58.8%. We should keep in mind that CMC also includes stablecoins in BTC.D, so we can ignore it or not, but for now I am counting it as the person in the image counted it. So if the neckline is at 57.7%, then we have to be careful because if it really follows this indicator, that means we will see a 6% to 9% drop in BTC.D. If it drops by this amount, that means $100 to $300 billion will leave Bitcoin and enter somewhere else like alts, and that would be the start of altseason. But this looks like a fairy tale, to be honest, because this won't happen in my view. We need strong indicators to judge the next movement of Bitcoin; we can't just risk our stakes because the H&S indicator is saying the neckline is near. Dominance shows the money in BTC. The more it increases, the higher it becomes; the more alts and stablecoins lose, the higher it rises. So it goes both ways. No need to panic here because this single indicator is not enough.

The time frame for the analysis is very important because if this analysis was made on a lower time frame and then the analysis on a higher time frame is something different This analysis becomes totally invalidated even if it is showing a clear head and shoulder pattern. Another thing to note is that patterns do not always work as people who have some experience in trading have said, there are chances where the market totally disobeys them so you should also put that into consideration before making your trading decision based on this sort of analysis.

Honestly a chart is a chart, you can use patterns to identify a trend direction or change on a chart of literally anything. It won't tell you the drivers behind a trend or its change (as in the OP's case it could be the growth of tokenised RWAs), you need fundamental analysys for that. But many if not most trading desks trade technicals, if there's a trend change on BTC.D they will start positioning in altcoins even if it wasn't altcoins growth that caused the BTC.D reversal.

This is BTC dominance; it's between the Bitcoin market cap and the whole crypto market cap, and there are a lot of things that affect this. It is not the same as trading bitcoin; we are only using BTC.D to measure how BTC influences altcoins. No one is trading BTC.D, so the H&S is invalid. This pattern will only work when you trade BTC and altcoins but not the BTC.D. However, I had seen this before, but I expected the altcoin season to arrive, but no altcoin season has occurred as of yet.

Before looking at the B dominance chart, and analyzing anything, you must know a first very important thing about it. Bitcoin dominance comes from Bitcoin market cap and altcoin marketcap (total altcoin market cap). Bitcoin is only one cryptocurrency while altcoins are abundant and have never stopped their creations. Therefore, now I hope that you see a clearer picture about cryptocurrency market and Bitcoin dominance, that is affected by new created altcoins. Even most of altcoins die with time but their creation and launch rate is very terrible, that affect and pull Bitcoin dominance down. That's it, Bitcoin dominance drops not because Bitcoin becomes weaker, if you have such belief, let's get rid of it because it's terrible misconception.

You are right to take this seriously when a macro chart pattern spans several years like this one, its completion or failure usually dictates the direction of billions of dollars of liquidity for the next 6 to 12 months. If that neckline snaps, expect a massive trend shift. If Bitcoin's USD price holds stable or climbs while this drops, we are looking at the launch of a genuine, high-conviction Altseason. But if BTC is dropping while dominance falls, it means capital isn't buying alts it's running to the absolute sidelines of on-chain stablecoins.