JJG’s Bitcoin Investment Ideas Explained

Lately, I’ve been feeling like I keep repeating myself when I share my thoughts on BTC and how to manage a bitcoin portfolio. So I decided to start this self-moderated thread to have some control over what gets posted here, kinda filtering out any crap like shitcoins, trolling, or shilling that might come through. Honestly, I probably won’t delete even the critical comments on my ideas, but we’ll see how it goes and if anyone else joins in. I think this thread will help me keep all my thoughts in one spot and maybe cut down on how often I have to say the same things… whether it’s through DMs or across the same old topics that keep popping up. Who knows, maybe this thread won’t really stop me from repeating myself anyway, but time will tell. To start, I’ll probably need to flesh out the first few posts as I go along. I’m thinking about breaking things down into categories like: 1) This post: Intro (Opening Post 1) 2) Opening Post 2: Getting started looking at your financial situation to see how much you can invest in bitcoin 3) Opening Post 3: How to accumulate, maintain, and liquidate BTC (or pass it on as a legacy)

Reserved 2 Opening Post 2: Getting started – assessing personal financial situation (in relation to ability to invest in bitcoin) First things first, no? Before any of us invest into anything, we should strive to figure out our own situation and individual circumstances to the best of our abilities.  Of course, we do not necessarily want the perfect to become the enemy of the good, but at the same time, if we cannot figure out various aspects of our own personal circumstances, then any investment that we make, whether it is into bitcoin or into some other investment, we may well devolve into gambling rather than investing. These 9 principle individual factors that influence your decision whether to invest into bitcoin and how to invest into bitcoin have financial, skills and psychological components that include: 1)   your cashflow (which also includes ideas of income versus expenses and surely discretionary income is the difference between income and expenses), 2)   how much bitcoin you have already accumulated, 3)   your other investments (including considering your emergency fund, your float and your reserves - which are usually kinds of liquid ways to hold value in cash, dollars and/or your native currency in away that many of your expenses tend to be denominated), 4)   your view of bitcoin as compared with other investment possibilities, 5)   your timeline, 6)   your risk tolerance, 7)   your time, skills, goals (investment/lifestyle targets, which includes figuring out the extent that you are in BTC accumulation, maintenance or liquidation stage),   8 )   your abilities to strategize, plan, research and learn along the way including tweaking strategies from time to time,   9)   your considering your time, your abilities and whether to trade, reallocate from time to time, to use of leverage and/or to use financial instruments... (and for sure the use of financial instruments, leverage and margin trading involve higher level skills and are not even necessary to still become richie in bitcoin's already existing asymmetric bet.) These are ongoing areas in which anyone should be working upon without necessarily concluding that they need to perfect all of them or even to perfect any one category prior to being ready to start investing into bitcoin.. whether that is investing with their time, their energies and/or their finances. I will say straight up that it can take a pretty long time to figure out all of these factors, and even if you do not know the exact answers for each or any of the categories, that lack of perfect knowledge should not stop you from getting started into investing in bitcoin including that you can continue to learn and to improve upon each of the areas (and all of the areas) to better get to know yourself and your particulars with practice and continued attempts at application and tweaking along the way. In the near future, I will be fleshing out the above 9 categories a bit more and adding them here.. but just my providing the above 9 categories should already be helpful for anyone investing into bitcoin and the main aspect still remains that bitcoin investors should be spending some time figuring out some of the application of each of these ideas for themselves. ONLY after we go through some preliminary steps of understanding our own situation in respect to the above categories, then we should be able to set our BTC investment target allocation, and of course, our target could change over time, so if we are an already established investor with several investments and a decently long history of investing that has allowed us to accumulate investment assets.. perhaps over 10 years or more, then we might well decide to get off of zero and have a BTC investment target anywhere between 1% and 10% of our total investment portfolio.  The 1% to 10% range is a starting out area, and of course the more that we learn about bitcoin might cause us to gravitate to some level outside of the range.  I would suspect that the more that anyone studies bitcoin should cause him/her to go higher in terms of allocation and perhaps above the 10% level.  Furthermore, the more bullish we are about bitcoin would cause us to gravitate towards the higher end of the range and the more bearish (or timid) that we might be about bitcoin would cause us to gravitate more towards the lower end of the range. If we happen to be a less established investor and we have no other assets, we may well allocate all of our investment into BTC until we reach a certain level that would thereby allow us to diversify after we had already reached a certain level of investment whether that is $10k or $100k or some other amount would be our determination regarding if we might need to start to diversify into other investments besides having everything into bitcoin. The power of compounding. There surely is a certain power to compounding.  Let's imagine a hypothetical purchase of 20 BTC starting out with $5k invested in 2015... **(so that is about an average of $250 per BTC). It would just take a few of the compounding events to really start to feel the power of the compounding..   Even if you were to start to cash out 20% of your BTC stash after 10 or 11 compounding events, you would not deplete your BTC by cashing out in such a manner. **this example was inspired by my earlier post on the topic. 1) $250 to $500     = $10k  (early 2015 to mid-2016) 2) $500 to $1,000     = $20k (mid-2016 to late 2016) 3) $1,000 to $2,000     = $40k  (late 2016 to mid-2017) 4) $2,000 to $4,000     = $80k  (mid -2017 to early 2020) 5) $4,000 to $8,000     = $160k (late-2017 to late 2020) 6) $8,000 to $16,000     = $320k (late 2017 to late 2022) 7) $16,000 to $32,000     = $640k (late 2017 to late 2024?) 8 ) $32,000 to $64,000     = $1.28 million (early 2021 to ?) 9) $64,000 to $128,000     = $2.56 million  (Early 2021 to ?) 10) $128,000 to $256,000     = $5.12 million (?) 11) $256,000 to $512,000     = $10.24 million   (?) (20 BTC) (otherwise if spending 20% reduced to about $8.192 million with a remaining stash of 16 BTC) 12) $512,000 to $1.24 million     = $20.48 million (?) (20 BTC) (otherwise if spending 20% reduced to about $15.872 million with a remaining stash of 12.8 BTC) 13) $1.24 million to $2.48 million     = $40.96 million  (?) (20 BTC) (otherwise if spending 20% reduced to about $25.3952 million with a remaining stash of 10.24 BTC) So think about it, if the BTC price gets to $500k, then this hypothetical holder starts cashing out 20% of his stash each time the BTC price doubles, he still is allowing the stash to grown more than the amount that he is cashing out.    You can work out the raking numbers with a spreadsheet that I developed and discussed in another thread which fillippone has also linked a google spreadsheet to it so that you can plug in your own numbers to see how the compounding and raking works out with various numbers plugged therein. Here is an excerpt / example of a similar but later posted description of compounding (For clarity, I edited the below post) Here are 15 hypothetical examples** to show how length of time investing in BTC, how much of an investment portfolio the person has and investing strategies can make significant differences in regards to choices that the investor will have available and whether he is going to want to consider either continue to accumulate BTC or maybe to convert into some other strategy (such as maintenance or liquidation).   The wealthiest starts out with both DCA and lump sum is reflected in Hypos 1, 4, 7, 10 & 13.  The medium wealthy only does DCA is reflected in Hypos 2, 5, 8, 11 & 14.  The poorest only does DCA is reflected in Hypos 3, 6, 9, 12 & 15. **The first 6 hypos are clarified slightly from the original post. For these next Hypos 7-9, we can imagine similar kinds of hypothetical folks with ONLY 2.5 years investing into BTC. Hypo 7 (2.5-years BTC investor who came into bitco

Reserved 3 Opening Post 3: Accumulation, maintenance, liquidation (or creation of legacy) of BTC Of course, accumulation, maintenance, liquidation (or creation of legacy) of BTC are on a spectrum and should not be considered as absolutes, unless you have very narrow circumspection of your bitcoin involvement.   And, BTC accumulation should be attempted with some kind of target in mind whether striving to get to some percentage of portfolio level or to get to some dollar value number or to get to some BTC accumulation amount.  Another possibility would be to set an amount that you would like to invest over a certain period of time, such as over the next 6 months, and then to subsequently reassess the matter. When I initially got into BTC, I was thinking that I would invest a certain amount that I had set aside for the next 6 months and I would strive to stay invested in BTC for at least 2 years, and if things kind of evolved in a negative way or I became bearish on bitcoin, I would shoot for staying invested in bitcoin for at least 1 year out of consideration of long-term rather than short-term capital gains tax ramifications. It seems to me that these days, some of the downside risk of bitcoin has been removed, so anyone getting into bitcoin these days should be able to come into bitcoin and attempt to have at least a 4-10 year investment time horizon, and of course, if there are abilities to stay invested longer than 10 years than that would even be better to have the ability to have a longer than 10 year investment timeline. Now if for some reason you are not able to commit to at least a 4 year investment into BTC, then most likely there would be needs to tamper down the amount that you invest, and sure there could also be some situations in which it just does not make sense to invest at all when the time horizon is less than 4 years.   Of course, there are other considerations involving not investing more than you can afford to lose, which has to do with making sure that your cashflow is in sufficient order as to have your expenses covered.  On a personal level I have frequently projected my cashflow and expenses out for at least 6 months.. but as my various cashflow expenses responsibilities and debt usage became more complicated, my desire to project out further began to make more sense to me.  So these days instead of projecting out only 6 months I tend to project my cashflow/expenses out at a least a couple of years.  Of course the period of 1-3 months into the future will retain a lot more specifics and the period of time that is out further can be more general and without as many specifics.. while at the same time there could be some needs to keep in mind that some decisions that are made today can have cashflow ramifications quite a ways into the future and frequently it can be quite helpful to project those numbers out on a spreadsheet. Frequently also there can be fears that there is too much volatility in bitcoin or I am scared that bitcoin might go down in price, and a variety of concerns about the government cracking down or their being a software bug or that banks and rich people are able to drive/manipulate BTC prices down, or we might have another corona virus liquidation event scare or Armageddon etc, and these scenarios could well justify some folks to cut down the amount that is invested into bitcoin.. so instead of investing 10% you invest 5% or instead of investing 5% you only invest 1%..     Sometimes people will allow smaller probability expectations to justify that they do not do anything and they do not invest, but such scenarios most likely ONLY really justify a reduction of risk rather than not investing at all in BTC. Once BTC accumulation targets are either established or at least there is some directional appreciation that you have to accumulate some bitcoin, then the next strategy would be to consider how to go about BTC accumulation.  Surely, the best three ways to consider BTC accumulation is through 1) dollar cost averaging (DCA), 2) lump sum investing and 3) buying on dips.  The consideration of these three strategies is also best in the order that I presented them.  DCA has the advantage of having a kind of regular flow into your BTC investment that can really add up over time.  Lump sum investing is many times not available for the vast majority of normies, and sure of course, if you have some abilities to lump sum invest there is nothing wrong with exercising such option because having a lump sum gives you options to invest it all at once or to even engage in some kind of DCA approach with investing the lump sum over time rather than all at once.  Buying on dips is not a bad idea, but it requires timing the market. Fuck you status: created: December 28, 2021 -Last Edited 4/17/23 Around the time that I got into bitcoin, there was some reasonableness in asserting that $1 million could serve as a kind of entry-level fuck you status.  There could be an assumption that a 4% withdrawal rate could generate a passive income of $3,333 per month, and surely any kind passive income is a good thing in terms of NOT requiring very much work besides perhaps managing the money.  In recent times, especially after seeing some of the irresponsibilities of money printing following March 2020, it has become more likely that some kind of higher level of principle accumulation may well be needed to get into entry-level fuck you status, which in the last year and a half or so seems to have gravitated to $2 million.  So these days we can use $2 million as our entry-level fuck you status, which would then allow for $6,666 per month of passive income based on a 4% withdrawal rate. Because historically bitcoin has been so volatile and volatility seems to be one of bitcoin's ongoing guarantees into the future, I find it very problematic to attempt to use bitcoin's spot price to determine BTC portfolio value, and therefore, I have considered that the use of some approximation of the 200-week moving average is going to be much more helpful in terms of valuing a BTC portfolio and lessening the likelihood of prematurely entering into fuck-you status.  Of course, the 200-week moving average is a very conservative and quite a lagging indicator and usually is only met in extended bear markets or short-term liquidation events.  Prior to 2022, the BTC did not tend to go below the 200-week moving average for more than a few days; however, in 2022, we saw the BTC price largely below the 200-week moving average for 9 months (see this website for historical BTC prices juxtaposed to the 200-week moving average).   In this revised chart, I attempt to approximate the 200-week moving average - within reason.. but still allow for consideration of the fact that there may well be periods in which the 200-week moving average has been breached, and will likely be breached in the future (and still attempting to presume that such breaches of the 200-week moving average are not likely to be sustainable for extended periods of time). The "BTC Bottom" is meant to approximate some reasonable variation of the 200-week moving average. One of the difficulties in my whole attempt at projecting a BTC price bottom remains that historically, the 200-week moving average has tended to have spurts of going up but gradually has continued to go up - even though there seem to be periods in which it goes up at a lower rate - so my chart attempts to put in numbers to show the gain time and the rate of change as decreasing with the passage of time, which largely signifies an anticipation that the 200-week moving average is likely to go up at a decreasing rate with the passage of time. We can see that the amount of BTC that we need to reach an entry-level fuck you status of $2 million to be getting smaller and smaller with the passage of time.  Even though currently (based on bottom price projections), it would require about somewhere between 77 BTC and 95 BTC to arr

Reserved 4 Opening Post 4:  Attempts at BTC price predictions For now, I am going to revive and revise my earlier estimations that attempt to account for predicting when the BTC price peak will be this cycle and also the amount of the BTC price peak (here's some links to my earlier posts on the topic going back to mid-August for BTC price and going back to early November for timeline). I will go over price first, and I will just point out that our November 9 peak of $69k (ATH), our December 3 correction down to $41,967 and our subsequent bouncing largely between $45,750 and $52k in the past two weeks.. has caused me to consider various points in which there is likely resistance.  As I attempt to flesh out below, I have recently established that I believe that noman's land has likely shifted from $55k to $80k, and is now in the ballpark of $62k to $92k (assuming that there continues to be enough buy pressure to get back above $62k and into what I will now consider noman's land.   Accordingly, I will currently (last revised December 16, 2021), in my opinion, I will place odds for UPside scenario within the below parameters:** above $1.5 million  - unthinkable of most bullish of scenarios  -   about .5% odds $800k to $1.5 million  - nearly most bullish of scenarios  -   about 2% odds $650k to $800k  - aggressively highly bullish  -   about 4.25% odds $450k to $650k  - Optimistically highly bullish  -   about 7.75% odds $220k to $450k  - Moderately highly bullish  -   about 14.5% odds $120k to $220k  - moderately bullish -   about 15.5% odds $92k to $120k  - not very bullish -   about 5.5% odds $62k to $92k  - Not getting through deadman's zone.. (and therefore having a top somewhere in this range)    -   about 5% odds $52k to $62k  - Topping out in this pre-deadman's zone range, and not getting into deadman's zone - about 11.5% odds DOWN from our current range of $45k to $52k as the top for this cycle  - most bearish - but surely possible with decent odds -   about 33.5% odds **Note: that I have been providing these kinds of percentage frameworks as a proposed way to consider the assignments of percentages at any particular point in time.. .yet not so much for whether the percentages are accurate or even that they would be the same between one person and another person or that the assignments would be the same for the same person at time 1 versus time 2 after events might have occurred causing some justifications to change the percentage assignments. As far as timeline: (last revised December 16, 2021) Already peaked out in 2021 at $69k: 45% Peaks out higher than $69k at some point in 2021: 2% Peaks out 1st quarter 2022: 24% Peaks out 2nd quarter 2022: 17% Peaks out 3rd quarter 2022: 8.5% Peaks out after 3rd quarter 2022 (such as 4th quarter but before 2nd quarter 2023): 3.5% Peaks out after 2nd quarter 2023: 1% Of course, the numbers in the above chart are somewhat opinion-based, and may also be substantiated based on hunches that could end up being whimsical, even though they were honest attempts at capturing my best approximation of my opinion at the time they were last revised. Just a tip on reading the above charts, by adding up the numbers in each of the charts, we could assert that I have proclaimed that the odds are 51/49 that the BTC price for this cycle will top out at some point above $92k (which might be a bit too bullish), and that the odds are 47% that the peak for this cycle happens this calendar year.. and sure seems a bit out of my ass and surely there are ONLY about 15 days left in this calendar year, as I type this post.   Many times the discussion of BTC price prediction models will attempt to give some kind of weight to credible BTC price prediction models that are in existence, and surely some folks also try to spin their own models.  For sure, there is a certain amount of guessing that is involved in coming up with various predictions to put values on where the price has been, how we got to where we are at and an attempt to assign some level of probabilities to where we might be going.  The three currently credible BTC price prediction models that I have been trying to use are 1) Stock to flow, 2) four-year fractal and 3) exponential s-curve adoption based on Metcalfe principles and networking effects. Even my outlining of what I use has a kind of loosey-goosey attempt at approximating factors that I believe to be relevant in the long term, and surely, I have way fewer inclinations to attempt to figure out short-term BTC price movements with a kind of hope./expectation that the BTC price will end up being higher 4 years down the road than it is now. Also, in recent times, in about late July and early August, I had been asserting that it would be my belief that the $28,600 bottom was in, so long as BTC prices went above $46k - which ended up happening in about mid -August, and then we did get stuck in the $46ks for a bit longer in September but thereafter went above $50k for October and November and only recently to come back down below $50k in December. So surely between about September to November I had been asserting my belief that the price arena of $55k to about $80k would be a kind of noman's land - largely signifying that BTC prices were likely to pass through $55k to $80k-ish without hardly any resistance.  Nonetheless, it seem that in recent times our BTC price move up to $69k on November 9, and then our correction back down below $50k since December 3rd had seemed to have had caused my noman's land thesis (at least for that $55k to $80k range) to have been mostly was negated, so based on the most recent price correction, I have thought it prudent to tentatively re-establish the noman's land price range to be somewhere between $62k and $92k.. .so at this time, we likely have our price range of current price in the mid-to upper $40ks and to see whether we can back into noman's land.. so at this time we are kind of in a pre-noman's land price arena.   Then of course if we do end up entering into noman's land and getting above $62k, then I would expect that the price resistance would be pretty light until perhaps becoming stronger once the BTC price goes above $92k.. that is if we were to get above $92k... so therefore, I am expecting some potential pre-noman's land resistance (so before $62k), and then perhaps less price resistance in the $62k to $92k price range and then additional price resistance in the sub $100k to $112k-ish range and then again maybe less resistance between $112k and $200k. and then it becomes more and more difficult to attempt to assign any values to price ranges that are further out - even presuming that there is some possibilities to get to those prices in this cycle.. Downside Scenarios  (last revised May 19, 2022)   As I type this downside scenario, we seem to largely staying within a $27k to $32k range, so it seems that the $25,401 bottom from May 11/12 is not currently being tested in any immediate sense. To me it seems that after we have gone below the 100-week moving average (which is currently at $35k) and we have now been below the 100-weekMA for nearly two weeks.. we have transitioned from a bull market into a bear market... so the odds have become greater to break down than up... but still how far the BTC price breaks down is not exactly known in advance, either. So consider the below assigned percentages as possible Downity scenario peaks from where we are at currently and where the peak of the bottom would end up being.. Based on ongoing downward momentum and even short-term bearish macro factors, at this time, I am going to ascribe our down odds for the whole down range at about 51% right now.. even though I am somewhat just stabbing in the dark, really...  But in the end, all my assignments of probability numbers (even though somewhat out of my ass) on the way down currently add up to 51%.  Note also that if the BTC price breaks further down, the n

Reserved 5 Opening Post 5:  Other considerations / resources, bitcoin podcasts, threads of other forum members or my other threads Last Edited: December 14, 2021

i expect my post to be deleted. but before clicking the button treat this as some positive criticism you seem to fear the bears and dips.. why? bears and dips are not a time to get scared and drop your % accumulation. not a time to sell. its actually the perfect time to buy in more at a discount. dont fear the bear/dips. enjoy and get excited by them. its discount. edit to explain references to fear/bears sounds like when markets go bear, you NOW halt purchasing and force yourself to not listen to the voice telling you to sell and pay taxes, and instead just hoard and wait out the bear yet you have the premiss still to just 'wait it out' rather then buy buy buy good advice is buy low sell high. buy the fall sell the rise not buy the rise fear the fall. you keep mentioning bitcoin price downs as a negative. dude its discount. its a positive here you are saying in times of bear you advise people decrease their DCA amounts from 10% to 5% to 1% when bears happen. you even call it 'reducing risk' EG if the price tipped $20k in 2017. and you had 1%DCA, and then it corrected down. you should have increased to 5% when it dipped to $10k and increased to 10% when it dipped to $5k. meaning your buying 10% of your wealth at only $5k and only 1% of wealth at $20k put it this way if you are happy to put in say $1k (rep 1% of wealth) a month at $20k spike. you  are getting just 0.05btc a month, however if you put in $10k(rep 10% wealth) at $5k you get 2btc meaning you gain more coin per dollar, which is a good thing ..then when the price increases, once you are above break even. then you reduce your risk by reducing your %, to avoid you getting less dollar per coin in times of temporary pump drama changes however your fear method of having $10k a month(10% dca) buying the $20k spike only gets you 0.5btc that extreme month. then when the correction happens you only want to buy $5k a month(5%) at $10k which is another 0.5. and the $1k(1%) at $5k which is only 0.2btc a month. and for many months you are only buying 0.2btc a month. instead of the opposite to fear which would net you 2btc a month while the $5k a coin option was discounted. actual good investors buy more when there is a discount.. put more in per month at discounted prices. not less basically you should accumulate more during dips.. not less .. as for your prediction models. i do hope you know that the stock-to-flow graph everyone is sharing regarding bitcoins price history is actually misleading. this is because the daily price of bitcoin has a pattern with S2F because bitcoins S2F has a yearly average price variable included to bend bitcoins S2F curve into resembling the separate market price chart. so its not actually comparing just coins in circulation, deviated by production rate(true s2f) to then compare to market daily price. its actually just daily price compared to yearly moving averaged price at the point of the same day. where stock is added to make it not look exactly like 2 mirrored lines everyone knows that bitcoins pure 'stock to flow" (circulation) is this step down curve so when the year average price is added as a variable. ofcourse it will start bending the stock curve to resemble the price wiggle its not predicting future prices. its using the historic price to resemble the historic price

I cannot respond in detail right now.. yet on the face of your above attached responsive post and with a kind of quick overview of some of your ideas contained therein, at this time, I do not see any reason to delete your post, and for sure there might be some prematurity in aspects of the substance of your post in terms of my not having had yet been able to flesh out the outline portion of each of my above initial 5 posts.... .. and so maybe when I get an opportunity to read your above-attached responsive post more thoroughly (I expect to do that before continuing with my 4 posts.. within the next 12 hours or so), then I might reconsider if there is some disingenuineness contained therein.. but overall with your starting out idea about my supposedly being afraid of downward BTC price movements or being afraid of bears.. that is untrue on its face.. and I will want to respond to that... and it just seems strange to me that you would even think that I am afraid of down or bears or that I am trying to spin UP or whatever without being in touch with real actual BTC price dynamics.. but maybe your conclusion is based on my not yet having had finished the whole of a few of my posts (including a few aspects of post 4 - the price prediction one)? Fair enough.. .. I will concede that I am still trying to figure out the level that might fall into deletion territory, but this does not seem very close to merely because it is making various criticisms of some of my points as they currently stand in the OP posts.  My current intention is to largely have the first 5 posts as ongoing edited outlines and to mostly allow subsequent posts in the thread to stand as is without editing (or deleting for that matter unless they go too far in terms of their shilling or trolling).  As I already mentioned, I am not sure where you are getting the idea about my supposed fear. Of course, I have a personal preference for the BTC price to go up, just like anyone should likely prefer if they are sufficiently (or heavily) invested, so in that regard, there are more profits from going up as compared with going down.. but at the same time, anyone who has been in bitcoin for long enough should realize that BTC prices do not just go straight up and one of the BIGGEST guarantees would be up and down price movements (aka volatility), and in the short term, it is not always clear about what direction it is going to be, and surely those who invest in bitcoin for long enough (which is the case with me) have developed a premise that there is an expectation that the BTC price will be UP in the longer term, and for me, that expectation of the BTC price being up is at least on a 4 year timeline.. and even that is not guaranteed, but I think that the odds will be that the BTC price will be UP on a 4-year timeline from any time that anyone invested; however, on a shorter timeline, the price may or may not be up.. so in that respect, it can be quite a bit more difficult to have expectations in regards to short term price movements - and surely there may be larger deviations from price expectations, such as corrections into the 80% plus arena during a bear market or even corrections greater than 30% in a bull market tht cause frustration regarding where the price is at in contrast to where the price might have been expected to be. I see no reason for anyone who is investing in BTC to get excited about corrections.  Sure, taking advantage of such corrections when they occur and buying more BTC during corrections does seem to be an overall sound strategy that I have been following since I got into BTC in late 2013.  My first 3 years in bitcoin was largely down from the price in which I had made my initial BTC purchase at around $1,200... so surely, I am familiar with down and I am familiar with buying on the way down and continuing to buy at lower prices than my initial BTC purchase in late 2013.  Actually, that first BTC that I purchased in late November 2013 did not become consistently profitable until about April 2017, which would have been about 3 years and 5 months after that initial purchase. You seem to be projecting here.  For me personally, since the beginning, my system of getting involved in BTC was intended as a long term investment, so I have very little inclination to fuck around with getting in and out of bitcoin, so in that regard, I am mostly in all of the time and mostly accumulating. Perhaps my strategy will come out more after I flesh out some of the points in my 5 OP posts.. but the gist of the matter was that my first year in Bitcoin I was still in the process of figuring out the level of allocation that I was going to end up making into bitcoin, and I largely figured that out by the end of the first year and considered 10% to be a good target allocation level (which I reached by the end of 2014); however, any of us can look at the BTC price charts and see that the vast majority of 2015 had the BTC price largely bouncing in the mid $200s, and so during that time I continued to accumulate BTC, so towards the end of 2015, my accumulation level was around 13.5%, so in that respect I started to feel overallocated, and therefore, my relatively small and incremental sales strategies that I started to employ towards the end of 2015 and continued to carry out subsequently (and even to date) were somewhat responses to considering my overall portfolio to be overallocated, so there was not any kind of real motivation to worry about if I had enough BTC.. so I could freely sell incremental amounts of BTC in pretty liberating ways and without too much worry about if I had enough, so I started to consider some other factors but the factor about having enough BTC started to play a much smaller role in my considerations. As we know the BTC price pretty much went up from late 2015, so in late 2015 and even into 2016, some of my earlier plans to sell BTC as the price went up were more aggressive than they ended up playing out.. Since I did not really end up selling as aggressively as I had originally intended starting in around 2016, my BTC allocation started to go up mostly due to BTC price appreciation rather than my continuing to throw new money into it. So largely my BTC allocation went from 13.5% in late 2015 to around 85% in late 2017, and corrected back down to 45% in the deeper of the BTC price corrections in late 2018 and even the March 2020 liquidation event... and in recent times, my BTC allocation has hovered between 87% and 91% depending on the BTC price levels (such as down to $28,600 and up to $69k) and maybe some other shaving around actions that I might take from time to time.. but the allocation remains pretty high in BTC and seems to give a lot of liberty and options in terms of shaving off profits whenever I want or if I want... and another thing that I like to assert on a regular basis is that even though I went back and forth regarding some of my BTC holdings in earlier years and sometimes mistakes were made in terms of my average cost per BTC.. but even if we consider my average costs per BTC to be around $1k per BTC (which is a nice round number for calculation purposes, there should not be a lot of worries whether some BTC needs to be shaven off at 20x, 40x or 70x.. Of course, it is better if the shaving off is at higher profits, but once a portfolio is considerably in profits, there are no real BIG motivations to quibble in regards to what to do, and it is not any kind of BIG deal if profits might be taken at smaller levels of profits - even while at the same time, there still might be some preferences to curb behaviors in order to get some of the greater benefits to cash out some amounts at 70x rather than 20x profits... when it seems feasible and practical to be able to accomplish that without any kind of meaningful burden.. so in that regard there are options but there can still be decisions in terms of trying to better manage the portfolio.. even while pe

Congratulations on this topic. Personally,  I feel that most members here are basically all in in cryptocurrency and ignore traditional assets. I am not one of these people. I will share my personal experience and strategy here. When I learned about bitcoin in 2017 I decided I was going to put 3 to 5% of my overall portfolio in it. It was like a fun money, a gamble. I wasn't going to sell it on 1000%. I wanted it to exploded. So I holded it when we jump from 2500 to 20000, and from 20k to 3k. I just holded , and I am selling just small parts of my stash each month (as I said earlier,  I sell about 5k usd every month because there is a tax free law in Brazil below 5k usd) This strategy fits my overall personal finance strategy.  Most of my portfolio consist  of bonds and ETF, which I believe are more solid. I will never have less than 10% of my bitxoin in my portfolio just because I am too involved in it, and I am really bullish about it.

my portfolio management is not about selling the hoard at all.. i am a hoarder. i still have my stash from 2012. my premiss is about the accumilation to add more at the best rates possible to add to the stash nothing about what i said involves selling. its simply if your average regular investment is say 5% of regular income. and the price today is $48k knowing that it can go into the $65k range or the $40k range as thats the window of the last couple months. then increasing to 7% at $43k if the price dips. 9% if $40k and if your lucky to see the price go down to below $40k increase to 11%, take advantage of the lower prices. not increase to 9% if the price rises to $65k+, as you have promoted .. for me. i dont even value my hoard. i dont get emotional about my hoard. i have no clue what the dollar total of my hoard is as of todays price because i never value my hoard daily. i have no intention to sell it now so why bother even knowing what its worth now. what i do is just look at the advantages i can take to buy cheap coins when the price is lower than the last ATH and not buy coins when the price looks like its peaking near or above a previous ATH i buy the dips and just not buy the hype. if people are looking to hoard for 1-5-10 years. there is no point in/no reason to value the hoard daily and getting emotional about it. your not gonna touch it. so dont think about it, leave it at the side untouched and unvalued. the only thing to concentrate on is your regular buy-in amount. and how much value you can gain from the regular buy-in trades by looking at the risk of 'buy low vs buy high' its literally explaining the risk level in the term buy low(low risk) vs buy high(high risk) and that should be as simple as buy less at high and buy more at low nothing at all to do with selling

Thanks.  I did go back and forth in my head for a while regarding whether I should create this topic or not, and surely once I started to embark upon it, questions regarding how to frame the issues were not exactly clear to me.. so hopefully, i will at least be able to flesh out some of the first 5 pages of OP. and then not make it too confusing if some of the information is not necessarily going to be evergreen, so there are likely going to be some needs for revisions from time to time, and hopefully I will be able to accomplish some if not most of the revisions without losing the earlier perspectives.. .. I  am not sure how that is going to work.. because for example, if I end up posting a chart that shows my assignment of probabilities on x date, then surely one month or two months or six months later, those revisions might NOT be large, but they are sufficiently large enough to cause some potential necessity to show the earlier version in contrast to the later version.. .. so I am still not sure how I am going to deal with revisions while at the same time attempting to NOT overly edit out material and significant information (especially if it might show that I was either right or wrong about some issue.. and then subsequent edits might lose the earlier claims that had been made, perhaps?) Personally, I believe that there is going to be a decent amount of nuance, so surely there are going to be a variety of ways to allocate portfolios, and for sure if you are brand new to investing, then you might start out your positions way more heavily weighted in various crypto.. and really I am not going to want to get into any of the possible balances that might be considered in regards to other non-bitcoin crypto investing, but you never know whether changes of the times might cause me to have to reconsider my interest in non-bitcoin crypto investing.  I may well try to treat aspects of the topic more generally ... because surely, I am not interested in talking about some of those topics.. especially shitcoins and then when it gets into some goals that people might have to trade shitcoins in order to increase their bitcoins, so there surely might be some tensions with some of the balancing of those ideas in this thread. As far as making investments in other asset classes including equities and property or keeping some money in cash or even in precious metals (PMs) such as gold or other PMs, I think that it is going to be appropriate to attempt to ongoingly address those kinds of trade-offs, and for sure there is going to be some differences, again, with folks who had already established some of their earlier investments, and still those investments are not going to be going away including the idea of hedging including the idea of relative trade offs in storage of value and including utility considerations, too.  So the extent of the relevance to this topic might be more general because for sure from my perspective and even my area of topical interest, there will be more needs to attempt to stay mostly focused on bitcoin and to leave the details of some of the other possible investments for other places.. even if some general references or some levels of details might be acceptable and even appropriate from time to time. again from my discretionary point of view and also part of the justification for creating a self-moderated topic rather than leaving the subject matter to forum admins/moderators. Great.. nice to bounce off some ideas.. while hopefully attempting to mostly preserve OPsec, too. Well $2,500 to $20k is nearly a 1,000% (or 10x), so that would meant that you had the potential of meeting your goal, if you had been concerned about shaving some off in the upside... of course, in this thread, I am going to want to be trying to talk about the value in considering both tops and bottoms, especially when it comes to bitcoin , and surely I have come to appreciate more about ways to attempt to consider bottoms at least in terms of some of my current frameworks in my BTC management and aspirations. For sure, we should be talking about these kinds of matters too.. if you believe that you are in a kind of maintenance stage or a liquidation stage or if you have other considerations.  I am more likely going to talk in terms of percentages rather than actual dollar amounts or I will talk about some hypotheticals in order to attempt to make points regarding possibly generating cashflow from BTC holdings. I believe that I can somewhat presume that if you had an initial goal of not really shaving off any profits until you were at least 10x in profits, then surely anything above $25k meets your goal if you had maintained a cost per BTC of around $2.5k.. .. and for sure, those kinds of calculations seem reasonably fair, and I expect to be discussing some of that more in this thread and also presenting some of those kinds of ideas in OP, too. Yes.. hopefully, we can discuss some of these ideas further, and for sure, I had already mentioned that if you have achieved a kind of overallocation in BTC due to its appreciation rather than putting value into it, then quite a few options can develop from having overallocation due to profits.. .. and so we know that some traditional financial advisors or consultants are restricted in the various ways that they can manage portfolios, and they sometimes want to propagate ideas about how to manage portfolios based on restrictions that they have to follow, and in several senses, individuals have way more flexibility than those traditional financial consultants/advisors, and there may well be instances in which it is way more to our advantage to not reallocate into losers and to let our winners ride.. .. so we may well understand that we are not having to reallocate merely for the sake of reallocating but instead considering the extent to which our situation might justify some (if any) reallocations or just continuing to allow the winners to ride, and in this case I am mostly talking about bitcoin, but for sure there could be some other investments such as bitcoin related investments that cause several aspects of a guy's portfolio to have  lot of bitcoin allocated into it, and s/he is faced with potentially conflicting information regarding whether it might or might not be justifiable to reallocate away from having too much value that is tied to bitcoin .. or too much value that is tied to the dollar or some other asset category that may or may not be good for your finances or for your psychology.

My main point here is not 1000% or whatever. 1000% is not enough for me, I started tô sold on about 45k, which is nearly 2000%, but I am not really selling too much of my stash. I will be selling for as long as possible using the tax free range, but I am not really dumping my stash. I don't have a number for really aggressive sell offs, maybe in 100k, 150k? I really don't know. I am no professional,  but I do my own decisions s without any consultors. I buy mostly IWDA (developed countires) and EIMI (emergents) etfs  , and now I am searching about EMXC (emergents excluded China, because I don't think that country is going anywhere) On bonds, I focus in Brazil because I live here. Anyone can just buy Brazilian treasure bonds for 15% apy (inflation plus 5%) which is more than enough for me. My portfolio is basically that, and I am slowly relocating my btc gains to those few assets.

Some of your responses do NOT read as being consistent with this kind of an approach to bitcoin. Many of us can appreciate that time in the market is much better than attempting to time the market.  Bitcoin has shown itself to be a kind of poster-boy for this concept. So if you had a fairly consistent DCA strategy since your forum registration date in September 2012, then you would not have even had to have invested very much in order to have very strong returns. If you have strong returns and a good position, then I have trouble understanding why you would want to be recommending fucking around with trying to time the market when DCA has been very powerful in bitcoin and is likely to continue to be very powerful in bitcoin. Again, let's take your forum registration date.. If I plug in a modest DCA of $10 per week, that would put you at about 28 BTC, and of course, you can do variations of aggressiveness in order to show higher levels of performance, so even $50 per week will put you at 5x that amount at 140 BTC... So I am having trouble understanding why you might want to consider that you would have needed better performance than that? Sure, the more aggressive approach of investing more does give you higher performance, but I still would consider that DCA'ing is a very powerful strategy that can be supplemented by lumpsum buying and by buying on dips, and no need to be fucking around with selling in order to try to time the market.. but of course, once youhave established a decent sized  BTC stash, then of course, you can make decisions based on individual circumstances to play around with some portion of your stash;. hopefully not large amounts.. such as greater than 10% of your stash, but hey, people are going to have tendencies to gamble, but I have always been concerned about preserving capital, so really I do not want to be screwing around with more than about 10% of my stash, even though I understand that adults are sometimes going to come to different trade offs and balancing than me. Fair enough about my having had understood you to be suggesting selling to buy back cheaper, and so we agree that tends to be a risky approach. At some point, I will flesh out my ideas a bit better, but of course, I already mentioned that I believe DCA is the crux of any BTC accumulating approach.. and if buying on dips is meant to supplement DCA'ing then of course, there can be some pre-set buying on dip orders already set up, and if you do not buy through buy orders, then you can attempt to buy manually on dips too.. Of course if you already have a decent stash of BTC, then you can be a bit more strategic in terms of waiting for dips to buy and pre-decide how much of a dip you want before triggering you to buy.  After seeing some further discussion from you, we might NOT have very different views in regards to buying on dips.. perhaps.   You still seem to be mis-describing what I had been saying, and I do not disagree with attempting to be strategic about buying on dips.. but I still do believe that the practice of buying on dips is quite a bit more sophisticated than pure DCA, so in that regard, DCA remains a better overall strategy as a staple practice... so that you are not spending too much time trying to figure out if there is a dip, how much dip do you need and a variety of other factors that might cause too much waiting rather than just buying on a regular basis. Of course, quite a bit of this will depend on the particulars of the person and how much time s/he wants to spend watching the charts or trying to be strategic about his/her buys... If the person is an absolute beginner, then the best way to start is just figuring out how much of a DCA to begin to employ based on assessing personal circumstances, whether that is $10 per week or $100 per week or some other suitable amount, and then perhaps after setting up the DCA, the study into bitcoin and try to figure out if there might be ways that s/he would like to supplement his/her BTC accumulation in order to attempt to reach some target levels more quickly, if there might be some kinds of time preferences or investment amounts that are wanted to be achieved by a certain time period.   I would think that it is better to know how many BTC you have and what they are worth and also to have some ideas regarding your cashflow and the value of your various other investments rather than not knowing.  Once you know these various particulars, then you likely put yourself into a way better position in terms of figuring how much you want to buy/sell on a regular basis and maybe even figure out how much you need to have in order to reach entry-level fuck you status and perhaps even to be able to sustain a lifestyle that allows you to stay in fuck you status.... I do intend to flesh out several of these kinds of concepts further in this thread and to place the concepts at various points in the 5 OP posts.. and surely it seems to me that if you do not want to make those kinds of assessment regarding your own personal finances and psychology, then from my point of view you seem to be purposefully handicapping yourself in terms of knowing whether whatever you are doing is working, effective or needs to be tweaked in one way or another.  Of course, to each their own in terms of NOT wanting to assess your finances and/or your psychology (of course, you do not necessarily need to share any of your details withus or in this thread), but I would still think that you are even in a better position to even talk about what you are doing or to criticize the views and/or actions of others if you have a pretty decent grasp upon what you are planning, what you are doing, the effectiveness of what you are doing and if it is affecting you one way or another psychologically or financially.      Nothing wrong with that.   Sounds a bit superficial in your assessment or even your description of when you might be triggered by what is hype or not hype.. For sure, I believe that BTC buying needs to have pretty strong components that involve personal assessments, and hype (or however others might be feeling) does not play any kind of strong role in my usual assessment, even though sometimes market sentiment can be one factor to take into account too.. depending on circumstances... but my own personal approach is that I tend to think about my situation in advance and then I set up my various buy or sell orders.  When I first started buying BTC, I also had a weekly allowance.. at least for the first year, and then after the first year, I was a little bit less strict upon myself in terms of giving myself an allowance, but I still tended to set some parameters for what I was doing whether it involved setting buy/sell orders, and figuring out spreads between buys/sells, increments on one side or the other and amounts... once those systems were already in place, then I would not tend to change them based on what other people think or where the price might be going, so that for the vast majority of instances the price would be coming to me.  If the price goes up then I sell small amounts and if the price goes down I buy... so currently I have buy orders that start at about $44.5k and go down in $1k increments down to about $20.5k, and if the BTC price goes lower than $20.5k, I will need to reassess if I am going to buy more or just HODL.  On the way up, I have sell orders that start at $52.5k and initially they are $1k increments, but then they go to $2,500 increments and then $3,333 increments, and currently they go up to $150k.. if the price goes higher than $150k, I will set some more orders, but I have outlines that show the anticipated value of my BTC and the value of my anticipated dollars that go up more than 100x current price, and surely those are just outlines, because in 2017, it seemed that the price went up so fast that my earlier charts did not project very well up to $20k.. but I was able to extend and this

Administrative details: December 16, 2021 Revised Opening Post 4 to include my probability assignments for BTC high price (amount) and for when the top of this cycle seems likely to happen. December 28, 2021 Revised Opening Post 3 added entry-level fuck you status discussion and chart to attempt to project out 208-week moving average based on about an expected 75% per year increase in such indicator. Response: The reason that I use the terms accumulation, maintenance and liquidation is because they are recognize-able. Also, I don't disagree with your characterization of these concepts and practices to be on a range or a spectrum, even though there may well be points in time in which a bitcoiner would be very largely stuck in one part of the range rather than another part.  For example, Let's say that someone comes brand new into bitcoin, yet s/he is NOT really sure about bitcoin as an investment; however, after a few weeks of looking into the matter decides to give it a try, and therefore creates a 6 month budget in order to accumulate bitcoin while further looking into the matter.  S/he has $6,000 lump sum and another $6,000 of extra income that is coming in for the next 6 months.   So the initial budget is $12k in total.  Even if our hypothetical person may have considered possible ways to liquidate his/her BTC (just in case there are emergency circumstances), those initial 6 months might well be almost exclusively focused on BTC accumulation.  Perhaps a combination of strategies to accumulate, as I already mentioned in OP - which would be DCA, lump sum investing, and buying on the dip.    When getting close to the close of the first 6 months, the hypothetical person might want to decide how to go forward, whether to continue to accumulate or to just go into a maintenance or liquidation mode or some combination of the modes depending on BTC conditions.  People can do whatever they want; however, my recommendation would be for the treatment of bitcoin as a longer term investment of at least 4-10 years, but it is understandable that people might not get to the point in which they are comfortable both financially and psychologically to treat bitcoin as a long term investment. So, let's get back to our hypothetical person, and let's say after the first 6 months investing into bitcoin, s/he has decided that s/he is going to aggressively invest into bitcoin to get his/her BTC holdings up to 10% of his/her total investment portfolio.  S/he already has a total investment portfolio that is somewhere in the ballpark of $200k, so s/he considers that another 6 months investing around another $8k into bitcoin could well bring him/her in the ballpark of 10%, which might end up being a total of $20k invested into bitcoin. After reaching the target investment level, then there might be some further questions regarding how to go forward, and of course, after investing into BTC for nearly a whole year, there should have been opportunities to further study into the bitcoin matter, and I would argue that if the goals had been to get to 10%-ish allocation into bitcoin, there might not have been too much waffling around regarding whether s/he might want to employ any other tactics beyond accumulation strategies.  I surely argue against selling or the use of margin in order to accumulate bitcoin; however, I am not against leveraging (or the use of debt instruments). So, surely almost any year long period of being involved in bitcoin could well end up showing a variety of ways in which bitcoin tends to be volatile, so surely there could be some ideas that come to any HODLer of BTC regarding what strategies might be employed to deal with volatility, especially after reaching or getting close to reaching accumulation targets, and maybe how anyone deals with these kinds of questions would partly depend upon whether their BTC holdings are in the negative or positive after reaching accumulation targets. My own BTC holdings were largely negative for a couple of years of my involvement in BTC, so I choose to continue to accumulate during that time, and even my very first BTC purchase of about $1,200 per BTC was in the negative from late 2013 until about March/April 2017, so that was more than 3 years of being in the negative for that particular first BTC purchase.  There can be a variety of ways that any of us might deal with our BTC portfolio management, and surely in my first year into bitcoin, I had thought that I had largely reached my BTC accumulation goals by late 2014 after my first year into BTC, but I decided to continue to accumulate, which was partly based on my total BTC holdings continuing in the negative, but by the time late 2015 came, I did start to employ more of a hybrid approach of accumulation and maintenance.  I understand that a lot of investors (whether younger or maybe just don't have a lot of capital to bring into BTC) are likely to take way longer than me to reach meaningful BTC accumulation goals, so if someone is getting into bitcoin and maybe only has about $100 per week that can be invested, and maybe after 3-4 years might start to build a decent sized BTC investment and might even be able to increase his/her BTC investment amount to $200 per week or $300 per week, but it still could take a decently long period of time to reach BTC accumulation targets, and surely I am not recommending to employ selling or trading tactics in order to attempt to reach BTC accumulation targets faster, but instead, I tend to suggest that BTC accumulation targets should be met or exceeded before getting into any of the more complicated tactics of selling or trading BTC.

Bump: Administrative details: Revision log: May 11, 2022 Revised Opening Post 4 to add Downity scenarios at the bottom of the post. May 19, 2022 Revised Opening Post 4 to edit Downity scenarios at the bottom of the post.

I was dumbfounded as I finished reading this thread. What a wonderful education and informative knowledge. After reading the thread I also guess that JayJuanGee is an economics scholar or Economics related course. From his writing skills and patterns. That is by the way. Please bump this thread for people to see and read always. I was discussing with friends last week and one of them said, trading is like gambling because one can lose all the Investment in the process of trading and also gain in the process of trading and I also see reason on the discussion, because trading also used prediction as gambling. I Know that they are not the same but in reasoning they are synonymous.

Damn amazing post Jay What other assets do you think are worth considering in the current economic situation? It’s just gambling if you don’t know what you’re doing and acting blindly. Acquiring shares of companies or something like gold, silver has nothing to do with gambling, capital needs to be allocated where value is created, for an economy to function.

Sell means Buying Again from a setisfied price close to me. If you are selling Intelligently sell on a Price in which you are not lossing much and Market is in its Top Blossom then Market will make corrections Buy such dips and stay Happy as Taking profit as well not lossing valueable assets.

I have some higher education and graduate school work and then some career (work) experience that had dealt with analyzing information, critically assessing the information and then making recommendations in regards to the findings or persuasiveness of the information. I have not really considered my research and writings in regards to bitcoin to have been very academically based nor very technologically (such as coding skills or cryptography skills) informed, but instead attempts to help myself and others to brainstorm ideas from more of a layman's point of view in order that we might be able to achieve better assessments of our own financial and psychological situations in order to help us to better tailorize our decisions whether to get involved in bitcoin, and if so how to allocate finances and energies in accordance with our personal particulars. Surely, I feel that I have been ongoingly studying these matters related to bitcoin since getting into bitcoin in late 2013, and surely some of my attempts to help others through the forum are likely more centrally meant to help myself too in better understanding my own approach and framing and reframing and consideration and reconsideration of the dynamic nature of bitcoin-related information. You are correct that I should probably try to bump this thread more frequently - even though from time to time, I feel that I need to tweak or update some of the posts contained within the thread to make them more comprehensive and more timely in terms of the sometimes assessment of price dyanamics that might get outdated...  or to maybe add some content on some other related topics that I find interesting and I have discussed in some other threads. It does seem as if investing and gambling are on a spectrum in terms of there are ways to engage in behaviors that are more towards one end of the spectrum or the other end of the spectrum, but they are likely not completely pure concepts in terms of being separable from one another as sometimes folks like to talk in terms of black and white absolutes. Trading does seem to have a lot of aspects that are closer to gambling rather than to investing, even though there are ways that trading can be employed to hedge risk, so in that regard be incorporated as part of an overall investing strategy. and likely if any of us are wanting to consider trading as investing we would likely need to attempt to trade in bigger and wider gaps to offset risks or to serve as insurance rather than considering trading in terms of shorter term profit making. but I suppose there are some folks who can become really good at trading in such a way that they feel that they are not really taking very many risks because they are striving to set up their orders in such a way to take both sides, so they are merely hedging their bets which could end up fitting more within a kind of investing perspective rather than a gambling perspective. I would also speculate that the more informed that you are regarding various factors, then it is likely that you are more able to set your bets in accordance with the probability of one outcome versus another outcome, so in that sense there would likely be less risk-taking involved. and it would fit less on the spectrum of gambling, even though some folks will still want to characterize such perspective and practices as gambling. It seems that when we are talking about how to accumulate BTC, I am recommending to accumulate BTC through dollar cost averaging, buying on dips and lump sum investing.. also HODL would apply within the same accumulation strategy that I am attempting to recommend.   I do not recommend selling BTC and buying back cheaper as a BTC accumulation strategy, and so in my own personal approach to BTC, I do not really get into trading as a recommended practice until getting to either the maintenance stage or to the liquidation stage.  I also believe that the use of any kinds of financial instruments is a more advanced technique, and really I am not opposed to employing various kind of leveraging in order to front load a BTC investment, but of course, front loading does take more calculations about the cost of the loan, BTC's likely direction and having other sources of income to service the debt in the event that BTC prices do not go up during the period of the loan which would have been the preferred outcome., which of course is never a guaranteed outcome, even if BTC's price direction happens to be looking quite favorable (bullish). So if we set our targets regarding how much BTC we would like to accumulate in terms of percentage of our overall investment portfolio, perhaps starting out with something like a target that 1% to 25% of overall investment portfolio would be allocated in BTC, so once we reach our target level of BTC or even if we have overachieved our target, then we may well have more options in terms of starting to employ some selling as the BTC price goes up, and using those proceeds to buy back as the BTC price goes down.  Surely these kinds of techniques of selling on the way up and buying on the way down could be considered as trading and gambling, but I would not consider them to fit so well in the category of gambling because largely we can preset the BTC selling amounts and the price and then just let the price come to our set amount.   If the BTC price does not go to the point in which we had set our sell order, then no sale is made... so we can structure the various sell points in a kind of laddering manner on the way up and choosing what amount of increments that we would like to set between each of our sell amounts and also how much BTC we would like to sell at each ladder rung level. One formula that I had frequently applied historically was selling somewhere around 1% of the value of my BTC holdings for every 10% that the BTC price goes up.  Of course those kind of formulas can be tweaked to be higher or lower, and they can be framed in different kinds of ways of flexibility, but if such a formula were to be followed you also be able to figure out how much BTC you would end up selling all the way up the spectrum to various price points and be able to figure out how much BTC you would have remaining and the value of that remaining BTC at various price points up the price ladder.  You should also be able to conclude that if your sell rate was ONLY 1% per every 10% price rise, then you would never run out of BTC by strictly following such a formula... so therefore you can figure out whether your sell strategy is overly conservative or overly aggressive depending on what you would like to achieve if the BTC price reaches your speculated price points. I got (and modified) several of my selling on the way up ideas from Rpietila's (Risto) (RIP) 2013 Thread entitled.:  (SSS) - A Sane and Simple bitcoin Savings plan

To me it seems difficult to even put certain types of investments on a spectrum of gambling, but i also get where y’all are coming from. Let’s say you’re buying something like gold or silver, you’re getting exactly the amount you paid for and your investment can’t vanish even if market prices fluctuate(the gold will always stay in your hands). Not really a gamble. Maybe the gambling factor comes into play when the underlying asset is ignored by the investor and the only focus is the market price and higher returns, like waiting for something to go parabolic without understanding/ being interested about what you were investing into/ or wanting to actually own the asset, if it wasn’t for money. Now if someone is risking their asset they didn’t previously gamble on, like the people that got their Bitcoin liquidated now, because they were over-leveraged, then we’re getting into high gambling territory. This has nothing to do with sane investing anymore. But if i actually wanna own a part of x company trough good and bad times, because i believe they deliver a great value, i dont see how it’s gambling(then owning a company would be gambling too), its simply providing liquidity to where actual value is created. It’s more like keep tuning a car till it can win a race and beyond. To me this was the original thought behind doing investments, tho i agree that this is getting more and more lost, but people who invest with strong principles will succeed more. Now sure if i go into 100 companies in 5 days, it’s nothing else than gambling, because no one can possibly gather enough info about the underlying assets in this short amount of time. Now if we go into the section of investing were no more underlying asset is bought, like derivatives, we’re coming closer into gambling territory. So i see why the both are on a spectrum.

I don't feel very comfortable getting into discussions about the various ways to apportion your investment portfolio outside of bitcoin and the dollar (or whatever other fiat that you might have as your local currency).. so of course you have to measure your circumstances to figure out what your balance is going to be. I don't have any problem with suggesting that any young / newbie investor to begin to build his/her investment portfolio by only focusing on bitcoin and cash, and once s/he gets up to a certain decently sizable amount, such as something like $50k, then at that point to consider the extent to which further diversification might be helpful.  Of course, the decently sizable amount has a considerable amount of subjectivity - because there might be some measure in which there might be questions about whether the investor feels that s/he is starting to feel that s/he has too many eggs in one basket.  Of course property and equity funds are not bad for attempting to offset having too much specialization but it might not even be any kind of compelling need to diversify until getting to some higher amount.. whether that is $200k or $500k or $1million.... at some point for each of us, we might feel some need to NOT have all our eggs in one basket. Property for sure can tie you down geographically, contain a lot of expenses related to maintenance, taxes, ownership transfer costs and even an attack vector for possible liabilities and lawsuits that others can easily identify that you own it and viola.. all of a sudden there is a lien on it.  But, if you are geographically tied down anyhow, and you need to live somewhere, so it is not a bad thing to store some of your wealth and to diversify outside of bitcoin (even though we also know that property is also suffering from the pumping/inflation mechanisms of the government debt systems). I will supplement by asserting that there is value in the fact that people make different choices in terms of how much value they want to allocate into a variety of differing kinds of asset classes - and for differing reasons.   If you consider your investment into bitcoin as a hedge against the dollar in similar kinds of ways that gold and silver used to be a hedge against the dollar, you might consider that in accordance with Gresham's law, bitcoin is likely going to suck away most if not all of the monetary value of gold and silver.. and maybe there might be some be some Armageddon-like fringe scenarios in which it would have been good to have some gold and/or silver.. but in some sense bitcoin is likely 1,000x-ish better than gold already.. so is there any reason to have both.. or maybe 1% gold and 99% bitcoin.. might be a possible way of allocating that portion of your hedging against the dollar aspect of your investment portfolio,  perhaps?