Mining Difficulty: Block vs Network Analysis from 2009 to 2024

Hey folks, Someone recently asked me if there's a rundown on the different mining difficulties. So, I whipped up a script, pulled a few blocks from the blockchain, and did some analysis. In the end, I figured out how much higher the diff was compared to what was actually needed to solve a block. Also, I've got an overview of mining hardware history. If my script keeps working down the line, I plan to gather historical data and keep it linked with the raw files. Cheers, Willi Year|Network-Diff|Block-Diff|Factor|Block|Date|Mining Hardware | | | | | | 2009|1|9.430|9429.52|26561|11.07.2009|CPU2010|352|13.636.577|38722.54|73373|08.10.2010|CPU / GPU Cards2011|16.307|523.343.935|32092.38|101777|01.09.2011|GPU Cards2012|3.304.356|100.999.288.823|30565.50|206712|06.11.2012|FPGA Cards2013|908.350.862|63.950.590.039.772|70402.96|274352|12.11.2013|ASIC 130-55nm Chips2014|19.729.645.941|186.698.545.823.321|9462.84|315024|08.11.2014|ASIC 28nm Chips2015|52.278.304.846|59.299.689.224.187.320|1134307.81|368527|05.08.2015|ASIC 20nm Chips2016|254.620.187.304|4.330.991.235.116.156|17009.61|438452|11.11.2016|ASIC 16nm Chips2017|1.123.863.285.133|19.441.910.175.490.528|17299.18|488837|10.08.2017|ASIC 14nm Chips2018|31.931.136.454.488|29.838.308.432.657.944|15451.17|502579|01.04.2018|ASIC 10nm Chips2019|5.618.595.848.853|89.440.376.123.463.312|15918.63|556828|01.03.2019|ASIC 10nm Chips2020|19.157.154.724.710|194.259.588.698.898.016|10140.32|660632

Other view --> Maximum Network-Difficulty and also maximum Block-Difficulty per month and the factor

Update the years 2017, 2018 and 2019 with the statistics. ############################################## Statistics from csv file 2017.csv Total Unique Blocks (all data): 55928 Smallest Block Number: 446033 (Date: 01.01.2017) Largest Block Number: 501960 (Date: 31.12.2017) Max Factor: 141379.24 Block: 458091 Date: 20.03.2017 Block-Difficulty: 67.254.838.294.083.544 Network-Difficulty: 475.705.205.062 Most Blocks / day: 197 on 05.09.2017 Least Blocks / day: 80 on 11.11.2017 ############################################## Statistics from csv file 2018.csv Total Unique Blocks (all data): 54498 Smallest Block Number: 501961 (Date: 01.01.2018) Largest Block Number: 556458 (Date: 31.12.2018) Max Factor: 31068.97 Block: 515910 Date: 30.03.2018 Block-Difficulty: 107.577.625.064.494.656 Network-Difficulty: 3.462.542.391.192 Most Blocks / day: 193 on 11.01.2018 Least Blocks / day: 101 on 30.11.2018 ############################################## Statistics from csv file 2019.csv Total Unique Blocks (all data): 54232 Smallest Block Number: 556459 (Date: 01.01.2019) Largest Block Number: 610690 (Date: 31.12.2019) Max Factor: 79174.5 Block: 585774 Date: 17.07.2019 Block-Difficulty: 717.650.326.508.740.224 Network-Difficulty: 9.064.159.826.491 Most Blocks / day: 189 on 05.07.2019 Least Blocks / day: 114 on 23.09.2019 ##############################################

I have inserted and analyzed the data from block 0 in 2009 to 2024. It's a nice table and you can see some pretty big jumps. Impressive how the development has progressed The largest factor was in 2015 and the largest block diff reached was in 2022 Have fun with the data Willi

Three blocks found in three minutes. How often does this happen? [2025-01-10 14:22:45] [Process 0] Attempts: 580000, Nonce: 1667995565, Hash: fba9165f06e2ad63639a563036b8d0caa52d24f1cc3e8498309472c14a5a4eb7, version: b'\x00\x00\x00 ', previousblockhash: 9c58db52968e0366f18381741ae9c8fd1726e672f92d01000000000000000000, merkle_root: 22c2d9c1572e08baa14c9157c9d99901c9d1f17de1e793a6e793f52533705e98, timestamp: b']\xe3\x80g', bits: b'\\\x90\x02\x17', nonce_bytes: ad976b63 Block template successfully received. Previousblockhash: 000000000000000000003352e40fe81a6214aa8c198e531df88f0102b70afa21 Old previousblockhash: 000000000000000000012df972e62617fdc8e91a748183f166038e9652db589c New previousblockhash: 000000000000000000003352e40fe81a6214aa8c198e531df88f0102b70afa21 Block template updated. [2025-01-10 14:22:47] [Process 2] Attempts: 585000, Nonce: 1922814720, Hash: 1a8ff0df04916ee6c56eae95d92ad3c113c966c2790b3da024ab1cf45f31105a, version: b'\x00\x00\x00 ', previousblockhash: 9c58db52968e0366f18381741ae9c8fd1726e672f92d01000000000000000000, merkle_root: 22c2d9c1572e08baa14c9157c9d99901c9d1f17de1e793a6e793f52533705e98, timestamp: b']\xe3\x80g', bits: b'\\\x90\x02\x17', nonce_bytes: 00d39b72 [2025-01-10 14:24:46] [Process 3] Attempts: 660000, Nonce: 789154495, Hash: 42a7c13d93f0601176c425c39eefbbfcbfb6b5ff7b2dbe0670e8076750d08655, version: b'\x00\x00\x00 ', previousblockhash: 9c58db52968e0366f18381741ae9c8fd1726e672f92d01000000000000000000, merkle_root: 22c2d9c1572e08baa14c9157c9d99901c9d1f17de1e793a6e793f52533705e98, timestamp: b']\xe3\x80g', bits: b'\\\x90\x02\x17', nonce_bytes: bf8a092f Block template successfully received. Previousblockhash: 00000000000000000001b99c4b36a1a47550749c4eccf7bfea34610b3a71c159 Old previousblockhash: 000000000000000000003352e40fe81a6214aa8c198e531df88f0102b70afa21 New previousblockhash: 00000000000000000001b99c4b36a1a47550749c4eccf7bfea34610b3a71c159 Block template updated. [2025-01-10 14:24:52] [Process 1] Attempts: 665000, Nonce: 1607271685, Hash: 8f5a6218d5f6b37b8a15fd78df2a5623cd708f1812261581b5daa678fab87723, version: b'\x00\x00\x00 ', previousblockhash: 9c58db52968e0366f18381741ae9c8fd1726e672f92d01000000000000000000, merkle_root: 22c2d9c1572e08baa14c9157c9d99901c9d1f17de1e793a6e793f52533705e98, timestamp: b']\xe3\x80g', bits: b'\\\x90\x02\x17', nonce_bytes: 0505cd5f [2025-01-10 14:25:47] [Process 2] Attempts: 700000, Nonce: 3902634011, Hash: 903782d0d03d812077f49c6be5df83ba4004dd0334235c262ea04b468aed80b1, version: b'\x00\x00\x00 ', previousblockhash: 9c58db52968e0366f18381741ae9c8fd1726e672f92d01000000000000000000, merkle_root: 22c2d9c1572e08baa14c9157c9d99901c9d1f17de1e793a6e793f52533705e98, timestamp: b']\xe3\x80g', bits: b'\\\x90\x02\x17', nonce_bytes: 1b789de8 Block template successfully received. Previousblockhash: 0000000000000000000055033b18316a31e70360658239d9de4ac5002db814c0 Old previousblockhash: 00000000000000000001b99c4b36a1a47550749c4eccf7bfea34610b3a71c159 New previousblockhash: 0000000000000000000055033b18316a31e70360658239d9de4ac5002db814c0 Block template updated. [2025-01-10 14:25:49] [Process 3] Attempts: 700000, Nonce: 1985583091, Hash: d4f3d19113be4a7b17b6bbb9a3501f01a9b298fe58d1cfc1033d552d1f2c82c1, version: b'\x00\x00\x00 ', previousblockhash: 9c58db52968e0366f18381741ae9c8fd1726e672f92d01000000000000000000, merkle_root: 22c2d9c1572e08baa14c9157c9d99901c9d1f17de1e793a6e793f52533705e98, timestamp: b']\xe3\x80g', bits: b'\\\x90\x02\x17', nonce_bytes: f3975976

It is about 33% vs 100% 1 in 3 blocks are 3 minutes or faster. so ⅓ x ⅓ x ⅓ = 1/27 chance of the next 3 blocks getting solved in 9 minutes or less. Very down and dirty math. but close enough. could be more like 1 in 35 or 1 in 40. As I am disregarding the blocks over 100% luck and they will alter this a bit. This is assuming that the network did not add a huge amount of hashrate. which used to happen more in 2011 to 2014 Sometimes we would add 30% in 2 weeks back then.

That implies there is complete certainty that a block will be mined within the next 10 minutes, which is false. The probability that at least one block is found within the next 10 minutes is not 100%, but 63.2%. Explanation in here. The probability that k blocks are mined within the next t minutes is: P(X = k) = e^(-λt) * (λt)^k / k! For k=3, the probability that at least 3 blocks are mined within the next t minutes would be P(X >= 3) = 1 - P(X = 0) - P(X = 1) - P(X = 2). Applying with λ = 0.1 (blocks per minute), t = 3 minutes, X = 0, 1, 2 blocks, and you have: - P(X = 0) = 2.718^(-0.3) * (0.3)^0 / 0! = 0.7408 - P(X = 1) = 2.718^(-0.3) * (0.3)^1 / 1! = 0.2222 - P(X = 2) = 2.718^(-0.3) * (0.3)^2 / 2! = 0.0333 => P(X >= 3) = 1 - 0.7408 - 0.2222 - 0.0333 = 0.0037. So, the probability that at least 3 blocks are mined within the next 3 minutes is 0.37%. Pretty rare.

It just goes to show the randomness. It's the same sort of with small bitcoin miners. The amount of years it would take with 500Gh/s or 1Th/s for example, is crazy. But, someone did find a block with that amount of hashing power in mid-2024.

The update for 2024 is complete, and i have uploaded the raw data. I will also update the table once i have analyzed all the data to date. RAW Data Link Click... Statistics from csv file 2024.csv Total Unique Blocks (all data): 53473 Smallest Block Number: 823786 (Date: 01.01.2024) Largest Block Number: 877258 (Date: 31.12.2024) Max Factor: 143807.47 Block: 843946 Date: 18.05.2024 Block-Difficulty: 11.957.354.946.715.686.912 Network-Difficulty: 83.148.355.189.240 Most Blocks / day: 188 on 02.02.2024 Least Blocks / day: 108 on 11.09.2024

You should turn this into a website that visually shows the graphs. Then use some software that generates it itself. Self maintaining then

The 2025 update is complete. I have: - Added several columns to the CSV data - Reloaded all data with the additional information - Updated the image The following data is now included: Statistics from csv file 2025 =============================================== Total Unique Blocks (all data): 53082 Smallest Block Number: 877259 (Date: 01.01.2025) Largest Block Number: 930340 (Date: 31.12.2025) Max Factor: 11961.73 Block: 912658 Date: 01.09.2025 Block-Difficulty: 1.551.426.514.507.074.816 Network-Difficulty: 129.699.156.960.681 Most Blocks / day: 184 on 01.02.2025 Least Blocks / day: 107 on 22.06.2025