Mining difficulty drops, but I've got a question

Not sure if this is a solid question, but I’d rather ask than stay in the dark. So, I’ve been getting alerts on my phone saying that Bitcoin mining difficulty is going down. Last week it dropped by about 1% and today it’s down 2%. I’m wondering if this might actually benefit solo miners during a bear market. I know some miners go under when the market's rough, and some ASICS gear isn't as profitable anymore. Does this mean blocks will be easier to mine too? 😕 Just trying to figure things out, so if it sounds silly, my bad.

I recently published these statistics. Solo mining is a lottery; the difficulty is constantly changing. For solo miner, this statistic is important: Odds of Finding a Block: https://solostats.ckpool.org/users/bc1pgmjf3naje4543gzge0a2tk5kxnpqu0gdckt54kp34jpv8wvasskqltysfy I haven't paid attention to daily or weekly hashrate fluctuations for a long time. Looking at the year-over-year results, the hashrate is constantly growing. On January 1, 2025, the hashrate was approximately 0.84 ZH/s, and now it's 1.100 ZH/s.

Solo miners continue to mine a block, but they calculate the mining hash rate in a way they know they might be lucky and some are lucky. Even when the hash rate was higher than this, single miners continue to mine a block. Yes, block will be easier to solve but with bitcoin mining hash rate is still very high and nothing like that for now.

I think it has something to do with the AI/LLM craze. Mining difficulty is going down because big investors are started to invest in llm datacenters instead of btc miner farm. Both are valid ways of making money in the end but btc farms didn’t have competition till now. Now they do. One can invest in a big llm datacenter and have his own llm app running on those free llm models. I don’t know the details in full but I am sure something is eating the btc mining share / hash rate out there and it is those llm investors.

The possibility of a solo miner to mine a block is slim and he needs sophisticated lastest mining equipment with high hash rate. I don't think that those second hand mining equipment that would be sold in the bear market by miners will be efficient enough to mine a block compared to a mining farm even if the mining difficulty is low. The cost of electricity is also very expensive only if you're in a region with cheap electricity. I will rather use whatever money I plan to set up a solo mining farm to buy bitcoin and hodli to avoid unexpected losses. However, a few solo miners are lucky enough to solve the puzzle.

it is a good question  the diff was as high as 155t it is now 149T that is easier to hit a block for a solo miner but it is still really really really hard for a 10th miner to hit one. a 10th miner earns about 38 cents a day a block is about 285,000 dollars so 285000/.38=750,000  so the chance is 1 block per 750,000 days or 1 block per 2054.8 years 1 block per 20.54 centuries it was worse. maybe 1 block per 780,000 days 1 block per 2137 years 1 block per 21.37 centuries so yeah we improved a bit. these are ballpark numbers but close enough I have a down clocked miner spent 100 to get it and I burn 12x24=288 watts a day. I will run it till it breaks and it is now easier to hit a block than last jump

hey das me lol

Where do you think I got these statistics from? You previously published your address, so I decided to use that example. We've already discussed how difficult it is to win in such a lottery. Your chances might be better in a regular lottery. There are exceptions, such as free electricity.

Lottery miners who buy Bitaxe mining equipment are a great find and a major source of profit for the company that produces it. If it were profitable, the company would be mining itself. But not all miners know how to calculate probability. The problem isn't actually calculating probability, but understanding it using a simple example.