Just wanted to share my thoughts on BTC, and I’d love to hear any other insights you guys might have about the chart I'm looking at below. Maybe there's something I’m missing, and I’m hoping some experienced traders can drop some tips.
Here’s what I see on the daily chart:
Scenario #1:
We could see a bounce around $112k on August 20, 2025, which might just be a temporary retracement before we push back up to $125k.
Reason: Stochastic is showing an oversold signal.
Scenario #2:
We might also face a breakout, with prices potentially dipping below the $106k-$108k range, bouncing back near the anchored VWAP.
Reason: RSI isn’t oversold yet, and there’s no divergence signal present.
Just a heads up: this isn’t financial advice, so don’t bet your capital based on my analysis. This is just my take on things, so feel free to point out any mistakes!
What's the support to watch so we will know it will fall below the level of $106,000 - $108,000?
It seems that we fell from $115,000; it just continues to dump. From the recent peak around $124,000, this seems the lowest dump it has gotten so far. Could be more or already best opportunity to buy the dip.
A good support can be at $110000 which I think I have discussed before but that was before bitcoin later increase above $120000 again and got to over $124000. Also the same thing still applies but in a way that the support move down a little but now at $110000 as it was still at a price slightly above $110000 before. Bitcoin must not fall below $110000 because if it falls below that price, it is not a good indication at all.
I will choose scenario 2 because of the JP speech at 22 August can dump the market, even if the FOMC turn out to be good today, and market bounces back from the current price but the speech can bring bad impact to the price and considering the already dump it can dump more and I also think the ranges you gave from $106k to $108k are possible here or maybe it can go even lower.
This chart is very clear to me, and I am very positive on a dump to $105k as you mentioned, it is not financial advice it is just what I think of the market, but maybe after 22 August market makes a good pattern and we will see it retest its ATH again.
Interesting setup, thanks for sharing it with us. The BTC is still respecting that big ascending channel and the $125k rejection is not surprising but what I'd watch is the momentum. The RSI is already low but the price isn't showing any strong reversal candle yet, if the buyers can't hold the $112k, we might not just retest $108k but would even see a deeper dip towards the middle of the channel before the bulls comes again.
On the other hand, a quick pump to $115k could bring it back to $120k easily.
Also wasnt suprised seeing bitcoin actually dipping immediately after it created this recent all time high, I was actually expecting it considering that technically they were some inducement left behind when you look at the internal chart and I was expecting it to actually filled up those spaces gaps and thats exactly what it did. The only FVG or inducement left is that at the region of $109k and I expect it to only come to fill it if the bearish sentiment spread continues.
But I will say the market isnt overbought at the moment to think that sellers will get in control, I think that little weak hands have been shacked off and we might see the market actually doing a double bottom (W) by actually going up from this $112k support. For me I still dont think we will go dipper than this.
The moment of truth will be there tomorrow (Friday), A few moments a way from now. I usually noticed some serious movements on Wednesday and Fridays. I right now we are at a support level, but I think we are going to breakout downwards towards that EMA. By Monday, we shall know the position of the market.
It seems to be bouncing back looking up the latest price action.
But not that big of a bounce which indicate that it can still go down. We all know if support being retouched many time it will lose its buy orders and eventually can't hold.
This one supposed to be pretty strong support though. Will see how it plays out.
Well, we don't know but it looks like there's a reason why it bounces after touching that support in that area. After digging, it seems that it is because of the recent news about upcoming rate cuts in September, according to Powell.
I see a huge candle, and it is still pumping up. It looks like we are going to see $118k before the end of this day.
If $118k breaks where people place liquidity, then expect for $125k target as a new ATH, but if it fails, then it's just a retracement from the previous uptrend breakout.
When viewed from a larger time frame, $110k-$111k is the strongest support (demand zone) that aligns with the daily and weekly charts. Of course, this is not easy to break down. After a rejection, the price will likely rise first, as is happening now, or this could even be a reversal point for the price to attempt to reach a new all-time high (ATH) again. However, i believe we are already at the end of the bull market, and it's just a matter of time before the bear market arrives. Additionally, there's been some good news recently, which has brought a breath of fresh air to the market, with most major coins already on the rise.
Here's my update currently on my phone watching BTC and notice something that looks like it built a bullish megaphone pattern.
It also respected the EMA 126 which a support are on the previous dip around $98k as you can see on the image below. RSI is currently building a double bottom so this might be the end of bearish and let's see if the price could break the $113k liquidity.
If the $113k got broke then expect for more price pump this next few days.
Update: For another confluence
Adding this on SMC it is inside on OB. So there's a chance that this is the end of the dump.
It looks like the drop might continue for another week
Like I said Last time, There are usually some serious movements on Fridays and sometimes on Wednesdays. From the looks of things, it seems ETH has also lost the upward momentum for now so I fancy Bitcoin correcting all the way to somewhere below $100K in the coming weeks.
But the $107,500 isn't broken yet and it still inside the megaphone pattern. Plus my confirmation looks like this would create a double bottom because there's a liquidity building up under $107,000 or below that area and for daily time frame using EMA150 it is already double bottom and possible there's upcoming reversal.
We might experience consolidation today or bullish order block and EMA150 are confluence it must be bullish within this week but still risky since the previous trend still not broken. For some traders they take this opportunity as try and error meaning they risk here and hold if success because it's a strong bullish sign but if failed the next target price to entry is $105k or around $103k.
Here's my current chart:
If price bullish within this week and the $110k and $111k broke based on fibonacci sequence then there's a possibility of market shift if tha price broke I'm going to wait for a pullback in 50% fibonacci or the golden zone if it reacts on that area I might buy as my try and error.
I am not sure about the current market because there is no enough signals for me to specify if the market is actually going to continue the bull run or take another direction. Analyzing the crypto market especially the price of Bitcoin is not easy at this particular time that we are. The market has been fluctuating for days now without knowing what could be the next direction of the market.
Let's keep anticipating for a better outcome because Bitcoin is always going to go into a particular direction after all the ranging movement we have been seeing for weeks now. If op analysis finally playout, that would be a kudos to him for plotting a cool market chart for the next price direction.
I hope the OP is involving himself in the various bitcoin price prediction contest ongoing in the forum because with his analysis, he has a shot at winning.
There are a couple of them, in the Games and round section of the forum.
Of course the market has been facing a strong resistance where the price fell below 113k to even 112k if I am not mistaken, though the month of August weren't that bullished and same is applicable to the month of September, but currently we have Bitcoin at nearly $115k which it just gained little percentage. Historically the month of August and September has always proven to be a month of bearish but November and December always shows strong support.
Hard to comment without seeing the exact chart, but on the daily TF the main things I always check after my initial bias are: market structure (HH/HL vs LH/LL), where price is relative to key daily EMAs, and whether volume confirms the move. A lot of solid-looking setups fail simply because volume is drying up near resistance.