Did you know you can predict bitcoin prices on prediction markets that run from 5 minutes to several days? It’s kinda like binary options.
Are there any fans of binary options here? Prediction markets claim they are more like trading than gambling, but honestly, we used to call binary options gambling even before prediction markets popped up.
I’ve noticed binary options on some centralized exchanges, which I brought up in this discussion a few months back. They are labeled as Event Futures there. I still see binary options as gambling though.
What do you think? Can binary options be classified as trading or are they just gambling? It’s cool that more crypto users can engage in this now using crypto as the currency, unlike before, which makes it a bit different from traditional options on exchanges.
Binary Option is 100% gambling, and not trading. The trading aspect has been stripped off when a time expiration is introduced. That is a constraint that has to be beaten, which further put stress on the trader's psychology and ease of making a decision.
I'm indifferent here. Whether it's good or not depends on the user, as it's not forced on anyone.
A market that is more of a trading platform is definitely a bait to get gamblers into the predictions market.
As long as you have a time duration for your bitcoin price predictions, it means you are gambling and not trading.
A leverage future trader is more related to this prediction market, but those trading the spot market can be said to be gambling since they can send out their bitcoin regardless of the price.
Binary option is same as gambling, I didn't know because right when I started learning forex trading, I was taught that binary is the same as forex but that was not true, although I'd rather do binary options than prediction market but I don't use both platform, if I want to trade Bitcoin, I will rather use a centralized exchange carry out the trade after doing a proper analysis.
I have never traded in binary. It was risky, and yes, it was very close to gambling because of its yes-or-no style of betting. I avoided it from the start. Although it is not very common here either, I came to know about futures first, and then I started spot trading.
The main question was about prediction markets. I think those markets as a whole are gambling and betting platforms, but the difference I see between prediction markets and binary trading is the time frame. We get to see bigger time frames on Polymarket or other prediction markets, and most of the betting is on real-life events which are hard to predict, but not impossible.
I prefer trading over prediction markets because there is too much risk in them. It is either lose it all or win it all, while in trading we can book at any time with any amount of profit or loss.
I have the same view as you, classifying binary options as gambling because from the elements we can see that gambling is more appropriate than trading, this is just a modification, but the fact is that just like we bet on a team, binary options have a time limit just like we wait for the results of the match, even though we do technical analysis and everything else just like we do before trading, it does not eliminate the gambling element that is much more inherent in binary options.
To me, binary trading seems like gambling in some ways and not in others.
Aspects that don't seem like gambling
Even if you do binary trading, you have to learn about many thingsRisk managementFinancial managementSupport lineResistant lineCandles movementAnd so on and so forth
Things that seem like gambling for it
Results are made within 1 minute or 5 minutesIf our guess is wrong, then we face a complete loss of money.Etc.
However, I once heard some big Forex traders' comments on this subject. I was completely shocked and disappointed after hearing what they said. They said that binary trading is a complete scam. All the people involved in binary trading are associated with the company and will open an account with you through their link and when you lose, that trader will get some money from it. I don't know how true this is, but of the few people I've met who were involved in binary trading, none of them survived.
I've seen so many binary options in crypto and now in fiat that I'm not sure why they're still calling it trading, but the truth is that it's most likely a dice game with only two options: high or low.
Most binary options I know have no higher time frame, but the majority of them are in seconds, which is too fast. How can you immediately analyze it? That is too choppy and can be manipulated with minimal effort.
The disadvantage is that you can only get 85% if you win the trade, and you lose 100% if you lose, giving them a greater advantage.
So, for me, you are just likely playing a dice game with two choices, high or low. So the result means this is 100% gambling, just like what others said above.
For me what I mostly noticed is that gambling are in many forms, to me what I observed is that trading is another advance form of gambling we can call it trading but everything goes directly to be gambling since is another method to earning money from trading, especially the future aspect of trading. Predictions market are most being Used for a future occurrence, that is why we must use the right market to make our trading.
This will be us going back and forth again about maybe Trading is gambling or not, so we wont discuss that as the discussion will end with everything in life is actually gambling, which is the most common way people end this argument. I will not go through this lane now, but lets be clear that similar to OP wrote there are games that havf highly chance of losing than winning or even using your experience and this are pure gamble which are clearly different from what others are.
If you look a the clearly explanation by BitMaxz binary trading or prediction market are just not in any way close to the other trading options we have its actually Clearly just pure gamble of yes or No without any more further option and this is also in the favour of the house as the percentage of loss and win are twerk to always favour the dev or exchange in question
It's hard to know if traders like binary options.
I believe the reason why people consider binary options to be gambling is that it's a pure speculation trading option, just like a casino crash game, but players have to bet whether the asset will go up or down within a very short time.
It is also almost the reason why people consider prediction markets to be gambling.
I consider binary options to be gambling based on the chance of winning, speculation, and the risk involved, which is quite different from trading crypto
I don't know the deeper and thought of your reasoning but as for me I take any prediction event or market as gambling because it's a guessing that's traders and gamblers are left with the opinions to predict an uncertainty outcome.
It may either be of the real world activities like the bitcoin or crypto market, economy and political activities.
The binary option is like that or gamblers predicting which sport team wins or predicting which outcome your spins will fall in.
The only slight difference is that trading or the binary option is a buying and selling of assets prediction market whilegambling is of eentertainment events while participants goals remains the same of making profits with their confidence also differing in both events due to strategies and lucks involved.
It is gambling.
That kind of "trading" as they label it that way means that you'll just have to pick a guess of hi-lo game.
The flow is you'll need to guess if it will be higher or lower in the preset period of time. So, it's more of luck in that sense.
Because if it's an actual trading, you can apply analysis on it but with options it cannot be.
Now I'm curious, let's say a person uses Prediction Market / Binary Option. Can you consider yourself a trader for doing either of the two?
For me, it's kinda new if you can still call yourself a trader by just doing that.
If that is a guessing, I consider that is similar to gambling. We don't know the right price will be and just guessing. I used it in the past if I am not mistaken before I know crypto. I don't know if that is gambling as I just guess where the line will be, up or down.
Fortunately, I am not deposit and just used their free gift so I can spent it without worry. But I am not yet withdraw the money as that needs me to deposit some amount.
I uninstalled the apps without hesitate after I found that is gambling, I don't know much about trading like that.
I think binary options are a high risk gamble disguised as trading because in real trading like spot or futures you have control over the asset you buy. If the price goes down you can hold it or use a stop loss to get out but in binary options you have no time even if you are in the opposite direction you will lose your entire capital. This all lose or all gain feature is what makes it akin to gambling. That is why it is better to use a centralized exchange to trade bitcoin because it is the best path to long term success.
prediction market and binary not a trades, when we are on binary and prediction, we are buying a speculations, just like a gambling, we can speculate if i buy one spins, may I get a free spins. It's not different with that. a buyer got nothing for paying, just a speculation within a single click, minutes, or hours, they will lose everything or increased their money from winning. while a trader, they not just buy a speculation, but also got a coins as a return. If they hodl that coins, it may back to ATH or even lower. No matter market happens, they still have a coins on hands. this mean they are doing trade activity, same as someone buy a sheep, buyer get the sheep, this sheep alive and increased it's value or will died later, it's not a problem for buyer. while predictions and binary they only bet for sell or buy position without coins as a return, its mean doing both activity is not part of trade but a gamble.
Not really a big decision to make for me. Prediction markets are just gambling and nothing more, so you are basically gambling on the price of bitcoin instead of actually trading it, why would I do something like that when I can actually trade the real thing? You do not even own bitcoin, you are just betting with other people on how you could trade.
It means that you are taking money off the market, something that could actually be a volume for the market, suddenly becomes secondary and you are taking money off the market and putting it on a casino. There is no benefit of this neither to you nor the market so there is no real reason why this is better for anyone. There is no valid reason to prefer something like this.
Honestly it's a gambling since it's a win or lose situation like if the prediction is wrong after 5 minutes you will lose your bet and if it's right you win your bet. While in trading, it would never be zero if the price crashes it will only reduce the value of your coin and if it goes up the value of it will increase. Of course not unless you do a leverage trade where it can literally liquidate your position and became zero. My honest take is, if you're going to use binary option, why not go straight into trading? If you really wanted to take risk, you can have higher leverage and if you hit it good you will not only receive x2 of your position but might be more depends on your leverage.
Binary options are purely gambling, they've nothing to do with trading but surely in prediction markets it's on a user to go for which part. Most people try their luck on real world events that's where prediction markets become interesting.
However, predicting correct outcome of a real wold event isn't that easy and there has been some rumors that in prediction markets insider trading is pretty everywhere.
We can't say much about that but most of us somehow know that in such markets there's highest chance of insider trading especially when that insider is someone with power.