Thoughts on BTC's future price and potential returns

Bitcoin just crossed the $50,000 mark, which honestly seemed impossible a decade ago. Is this the end of the line? Not really, but those days of turning a few bucks into a fortune are pretty much gone. I feel like Bitcoin and the whole crypto scene are still undervalued thanks to the craziness in the world and the economy over the last five years. But looking ahead, I think the profits we’ll see will be pretty modest compared to the past. Sure, there'll be some wild meme coins and other disasters like Luna that end up making some people rich while wrecking others. When it comes to Bitcoin, I think it’ll keep climbing gradually over time, with the usual market ups and downs every four years. I’m seeing it hit $100,000, then $500,000, and eventually break the $1,000,000 barrier. Will inflation and future economic shifts send BTC skyrocketing to millions or even billions? Maybe, but who knows if the internet and our tech will even be around then. So realistically, I’m expecting returns of maybe 2x, 5x, or even 10x in the next 5-10 years. It’s a solid, safe store of value with steady returns. I really appreciate the practical side of cryptocurrency and plan to keep using and investing in blockchain tech. There’s real worth in the ledger and transaction history tied to every crypto. Just like those Rai stones that keep going up in value, even the one that sank into the ocean is still counted as a record and store of value. But I won’t ever again throw all my time, energy, or cash into crypto. Diversifying investments and assets is the way to go. And honestly, gold and silver still hold real value.

You make a fair point - it's smart to be cautious but openminded about crypto.  Bitcoin and cryptos are still new, with lots of potential upside, but much more mature now compared to a decade ago.  But they also carry risks.  So diversifying across assets often makes sense for savvy investors rather than betting everything on one coin or token, which is kinda like a gamble. I respect your balanced perspective.  You seem to grasp both the possible rewards and pitfalls.  Maybe that nuanced view comes from experience or from following the space closely.  In any case, kudos for not just chasing quick wins.

I like to trade tokenized gold in the crypto market but I do not think I can hold gold for a long time except I do not want to spend the money at all and let my hires to inherit it. Aside that I can not buy gold. I prefer bitcoin. I will prefer to wait for the next bear market to be over and invest in bitcoin instead than to go for gold that is boring if my investment plan is not more than 2 to 4 years. I posted this on a thread: Gold has a boring time as well. But if you know you want to invest in it for a very long time like over 10 years, it would be a good investment. Bitcoin is better if you know the right time to invest.

That doesn't make sense. Gold funds are far more common than Bitcoin and not to say heavily regulated and legalized. If you're looking for assets to inherit, I would argue that it is easier to inherit gold than Bitcoin given the legality of it. If you measure how good your investment can be in terms of ROI with a good balance of certainty and risk, then stocks are possibly better. It is also better to invest in crypto in a bear market rather than a bull market. I've also explained in that thread with a caveat when considering investments. With how volatile crypto is to the general market and regulations, it is quite difficult to know the "right" time to invest. It is better to just DCA if you expect the value to rise.

There has never been 100,000x of Bitcoin or any crypto in the past and so it's not entirely true that such period has past when it has never existed. We've only seen Bitcoin @$73,000 which is 73,000x that's if we are considering those that bought Bitcoin at $1 per BTC. Your usage of massive figure seems too big and non factual for me and although the chance of Bitcoin getting to $200,000 is still possible it's still best not to do a speculation of $500,000 to $1000,000+ too soon as the chances of those happening might appear too slim and even if it will eventually happen, it might take longer than the few years years time to see such kind of figures. If it gets to those range of price, Bitcoin will technically turn out to be what's mostly usable by institutions and the whales and will get out of the reach and usage of the common masses. that gold started off earlier before BTC doesn't mean that it has a better guarantee than bitcoin. No investment is worth going into with 100% of your funds. No matter the level of certainty you have in the investment, it's best to allocate only a fraction for it knowing that uncertainty is an integral part of all investment which is why diversification if done the right way could be an added strategy to building a good portfolio.

So you are saying that 2x, 5x or 10x gains are "minimal"? Try making 10x gains by investing in gold or government bonds. A 1 million USD Bitcoin price would mean 100 trillion USD global crypto market cap, which is above the global GDP. Such market cap cannot be achieved in the real world. My prediction is that the absolute peak of the Bitcoin price would be probably 250K USD and there's no way the price would ever go above that number. The global crypto market cap is 1 trillion USD right now. Maybe the market cap would hit 5 trillion USD after several years, but this can be achieved only if the big governments and central banks start supporting crypto(which is highly unlikely to happen).

That is what I explained also. That I can let my hires inherit gold. But not because of how legalized it is but because I have noticed that its price increased in over long time like decades. But that if I am only looking for 2 to 4 years investment, I will prefer to wait until the bear market come and over and invest in bitcoin instead. That gold is boring for me. I have a lot of money to earn from bitcoin than gold when I am still alive. But I can also diversify if it is long term and also let my hire inherit bitcoin also.

It makes sense too, I wouldn't bet all my money on bitcoin because it's risky but diversifying is the best way to secure assets and one of the choices is gold which tends to be more stable, I know the ROI is small but it won't make the price fall like bitcoin. 50% more I will risk in bitcoin storage because I have confidence in the next few decades bitcoin will be higher multiplying, but I will do as much as I can and will not target excessive especially up to $1,000,000 if I myself can HODL to that number maybe something I have with strong hands. But I believe every 4-year cycle will not be the same, it could be 6 years to see bitcoin bullish.

Bull market is not a good time to invest in Bitcoin, especially if you can't time your investments. Bear market is better in comparison. Gold is meant to be stable but at the expense of returns, but if you're actually looking for somewhere to put your funds for a long period of time with far lower risk and decent returns, S&P is quite good at diversification and returns. No doubt that Bitcoin can be an incredibly risky but great investment. It is probably better to diversify your holdings and make sound investment decisions rather than basing it off on historical statistics.

Example of the bull run that I am talking about is when bitcoin fall significantly to $15500 in 2022. I have predicted that 2023 would be a bull run year. After a great support at $15500 and bitcoin moved to $17000 which indicates buy at the time. As bitcoin gets to over $20000 and not fall back for days is the bull time that I am talking about. I prefer not to invest at bear market during the time. Also many indicators showed at the time that bitcoin will not get t below $14000. I can not see the short opportunity and prefer to invest in gold when I have small amount of money to invest.

Generally, what makes an investor a good investors amidst others in diversification of investment, as the future is not ours to say, it makes packing all your eggs into one basket  much riskier than even the risk embedded in the asset you're investing on. Irrespective of how much a lot of us here in the forum may be optimistic about bitcoin  we still do diversify some portion of our funds to other areas (assets) that seems brighter (profitable) in the future, all in expression of safety and cautiousness to whatever uncertainty that may arise. I like gold and real estate investment as much as I do with bitcoin though ROI from respective assets significantly differs. And for the first row former assets it demands a high capital or funds to invest and grow a significant profit from it. I think that's what discourages some people to even go gold-ish in terms of diversification despite how old as humanity gold has been around.

I agree that those prices are realistic but it might take time this time. Based on the historical heights of Bitcoin, the increase has decreased and we'll get stability from it. You're right that it could be over we'd not see anymore Bitcoin moving 1000x or more within a cycle and we're done with that era. But the stability that it has got will secure its way to $1M and more. That's what an investor must do. If you came from crypto 100%, you'd diversify that somewhere else since you've profited in here. It's a typical move that you're also moving your assets after you profit from them. But we might have different route after crypto, I think that the majority will never cross out the real estate.

gold/silver is solid but won't generate that much wealth it only good for combatting inflation. I mean, what you mean by solid anyway, is it the growth? or is it stability? if it's growth im pretty sure bitcoin is more solid since the past decade bitcoin has gone up really high and right now entire market of BTC worth trillions of dollars. regardless, diversification is indeed important like as you said, just make sure the capital is big enough that diversification isn't just a financial overhead.

Well, I wouldn't put all my eggs into Bitcoin even if it was the old days. It wasn't without reason that people warned it was a highly volatile asset after all. Can't say anything about it being underpriced idrk jack about that, definitely believe we're still going up though. Maybe at least 2 more cycles before we see an actual change? The sad thing is a lot of expectant investors actually think that 2x is minimal lol. They came entering Bitcoin wanting to turn their $100 investment to millions and well, I guess that's what OP was talking about being impossible now. I've also iterated the same thing before that Bitcoin ROI wouldn't be as big as most people expect it to be, but it's still going to be there and make profit in the long term which is what I'm accomodating for with my DCA.

Diversification needs to be done for several reasons, of course one of which is minimizing the risk of falling prices due to price volatility. Bitcoin is believed to become more expensive as time goes by, but over a certain period of time, the price will fall following market cycles and trends. But some investors have considered bitcoin as a long-term hedge, even without or diversification. You don't need to wait decades for the price of bitcoin to increase manifold, the time frame we need is even shorter. Bitcoin has risen hundreds of percent since last year, in fact this year we have seen its price touch a new ATH. It doesn't take decades for bitcoin to make its holders get 2x to 4x returns, usually it's just a matter of years. In the long term, I would also place high optimism on bitcoin especially regarding its price. Even if $1m is too high for now, we don't know exactly how much it will be in 5 to 10 years when there are several new cycles that will pass.

I have expressed similar opinions to the OP in other threads. I think the spectacular returns for Bitcoin are over, although I keep hearing influencers and evangelists expecting 50x or 100x returns for the next couple of cycles. Or in the stock market. If you do it in an index fund, it's normal for returns to be less than that, on average 10% a year, and I think Bitcoin has years left of exceeding that 10% on average. If you play the game of buying individual stocks, usually small caps, you're either Buffett or you're playing the lottery.

This must be an orthodox approach by traditional speculators who are all familiar with stocks and other such markets. You need to remember that every halving making bitcoin scarce which must be an all new concept where most most speculators may fail to be accurate when predicting the future of bitcoin. Those people do consider only the limited supply of bitcoin but not counting the other properties of bitcoin especially phycological aspects of bitcoin; for example, halving may trigger FOMO up to unimaginable levels. I mean still 10x growth will be possible on every bullish year of bitcoin market cycle. Because, the belief on decentralization against traditional banking is slowly spreading out by realizing its true potential in real time. Legalization and ETF are other step stones toward moon.

Gold and silver to minimize risk but by generating wealth takes decades because the annual rate of increase is very small, some investors still believe in securing their assets in gold and silver to keep it from declining. If the faster growth is of course bitcoin, we can see 119,540,049% since the last 14 years there has been no other asset that can grow this fast, so bitcoin is now the choice of many investors to make money despite price fluctuations. Diversification is part of the strategy, because no investor puts all the money in one bag, surely from them diversify in several assets and this as security when other assets do not fall.

Yeah, I think smart investors are into it already, they have multiple passive income from different source, including crypto, stocks and gold and other commodities or investments. But obviously for us though, it is Bitcoin that should be in the majority of out portfolio. For sure stocks and gold have good returns as well, but crypto is the new wave of investment. As you have said, it has given us tremendous profits in the last 10 years and I doubt that we have seen that returns on other assets that we have in the past including gold. And then crypto has one advantage as well, you can used it as sound money too, although you really need to be technically inclined as some point.

exactly, even investing in gold for decades doesn't mean it will create us wealth or anything, at best it'd just gatekeep inflation from creeping up to our wealth and it won't be a life changing investment unless if somehow economic crisis hits and gold is valued higher than the fiat then it' be a life saver but gold can be valued less as well if there's some technological advancement appear that could help us mine even more gold such as interplanetary mining. I mean it's still far away but it's indeed possible. that's why since I want to create wealth anyway i will just settle with bitcoin and any other asset that got the potential of rising and the growth that outperform inflation.