I came across this video about Bitcoin traders getting excited over a call option that’s betting on BTC hitting $300,000 by the end of June. Now I’m curious how I can throw some cash into this for my retirement fund. Honestly, I don't know much about puts and calls, just that there’s a chance to make a good profit if you play your cards right. I’m thinking about risking $1000 on it, and if I lose, it's not the end of the world.
I’ve heard Derabit is where you place these bets, but I need to figure out what kind of bet to make and all the specifics.
From what I gather, the bet is whether BTC will hit that $300,000 mark. Personally, I don’t think so. $150K might be possible, $200K could happen, but $300K seems unrealistic. If it somehow does go that high, I’ve got a small stash of BTC, so I’d still benefit either way.
What's the deal with the June 26 call option?
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It is not that hard if you memorize key terms from options. There are only two:
Call, if you think the price will go upPut, if you think the price will not go up or at least not to the target
In your case, you need to use the put option on those high targets. I have never used Derabit, can you show an image of the available bets that you can make? I also highly doubt that there is a fair chance of reaching $300k by June, to believe so is a very bullish opinion.
There is no such exchange as "Derabit". There is an exchange called Deribit. Make sure you have the right name or you could be scammed on a fake website /fake app.
Also I recommend you try trading with the Deribit testnet before you start trading for real. With the testnet you can try out the functions and even try out trading without losing any real money.
Link: https://test.deribit.com/
yes you can try out calls and puts on the testnet. That is called option trading, or under a broader branch, derivative trading.
What options you are talking about, in trading in the crypto market there are generally three options that you do (spots, margins, futures) as far as I know there is no option to buy June 26.
Or you can take the Spot trading option step for the June 26 call, you know Bitcoin is traded today at the level of $96,800, maybe you can buy which know the next two weeks can reach the level of $150k, but I'm not sure of that.
However, if you are sure you can try it for your luck betting.
Sincerely I am still trying to comprehend what OP means in June 26 call options, I don't know if he is talking about future trading what could be the price of Bitcoin by then, and of course it's that hard to give exactly what the price could be, but one thing for sure is that one has to be Optimus about the Bitcoin to what it would result by then. Currently Bitcoin price is that higher which has shown that before June 26 there are all possibilities that we could experience higher price than this current price we are now.
This is a kind of gambling I don't appreciate, is $1k not too big for you to risk?, actually before you do anything try to read how the bet is all about because you might be thinking that if you predict $150k and the Price get lower you will win but at the end you will be told that it did not get to your number of prediction and is impossible to be accurate on that because even professionals or people that call themselves Bitcoin guru cannot get it right no matter how they study it. Actually if is a prediction that doesn't involve you to stake money then is better but betting with money is a no answer.
Don't think theres anyone currently bigger than Deribit but I would look into Binance as well, doubt you'll find 300k contracts there though but I remember there are some $200 expiring this year.
Always seems like easy money doesn't it? But there's always a reason people lose more than they win. GL, share with us if you do. Not a lot of options sharing on this forum
As the market may be it's actually that hard and difficult to be predicted and even if we are too sure about the market it wouldn't results as may have think where someone would go stake higher amounts for the market to hit a specific price by a duration of month or date, which I think the result might likely be that too difficult to come out as planned but using such amount is far way higher instead it would be better using an amount riskable to predict a certain outcome or occurrence of the market.
Short term prediction has giving people too much confident to believe that as they did it without distance of time they would also do it on the longer period, actually as the time is going that's how big changes is occurring in the price, it could be falling changes or rising changes, so predicting it right in the duration of month has a less possibility, imagine just yesterday or two days ago Bitcoin rose to $105k and now just a day later is $102k and some more numbers, so that is to say if someone had even predicted it with money to go further within two days they could have loss the money, so actually now is a hard time to predict Bitcoin because nothing is obvious.
What do you mean, what am I talking about? Watch the link I posted in the first video! It said $300,000 call option. That is all I know. I don't know the technical terms, all the options / derivatives whatevers.
All I know so far is make a put bet on it, saying I don't think it'll reach $300K by then, and collect a nice profit. And I only know to make a put bet because someone in another post in this topic said what calls and puts are for. If I put $1000 on it, I wonder how much I would get if it doesn't reach $300K by June 26. Does that depends on what dollar figure Bitcoin does reach by June 26?
I'll go make an account on the testnet and see what I can see there.
I tried making an account on the test.deribit site, and it says banned country. Can I not do anything from the USA? I tried Canada too, it also didn't work. Got to use a VPN from an allowed country to even use it?
And it showed bitcoin options for June 25 and 27, but nothing for June 26.
Of course there are options, they exist for almost anything you can imagine.
They are usually restricted by regulations. Actually if you have to do KYC on a service with such restrictions, it is possible that even a VPN will not help you especially if you need to do proof of address. By now I expect options for Bitcoin to exist in more regulated and traditional financial services. Have you tried searching for alternatives?
Any prediction market that features this type of bet will likely face bankruptcy because Bitcoin is not going to $300k by June. That is even to high of an expectation for the peak of this market cycle. I know there will be many theories and excitements now that Bitcoin have created a new ATH, this will make many people jump in thinking that will catch some nice quick profits but it is not always like that. If we see Bitcoin at $150k by the end of June, that is something amazing and worthy of celebrations.
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