I noticed that in 2022, bitcoin dropped from around $69,000 to about $15,500 between November and December, yet the mining hash rate kept climbing throughout that year.
Now, fast forward to 2026, and we see a slight decline in the bitcoin mining hash rate. It's not huge, but it dropped from roughly 1.15 billion TH/s to 945 million TH/s.
I get that this isn't really impacting bitcoin's security, since the price is likely to rise again and miners will be back in business, but I'm curious why they're not as motivated to mine right now.
Is it AI? I’ve seen news about miners like MARA Pool shifting their focus to AI. But honestly, if they just mine and hold onto their bitcoin, they could end up making a profit later.
On the other hand, Bitcoin America has been complaining about losses, yet they actually boosted their mining hash rate. I think that's a smarter strategy.
Sure, mining isn't as profitable now compared to when prices were soaring, but things can turn around. Anyone got other thoughts on this?
Check out my current hashrate; mine is showing 1.095 ZH/s, even though mining is unprofitable
https://www.coinwarz.com/mining/bitcoin/hashrate-chart
There were several known causes: the US power shortage due to the cold, which has now been resolved. Another cause was the war in Iran, but there are no exact figures, only estimates. Even within 1 day we can see the hashrate change from 0.9 to 1 ZH/s.
I think you better go check the chart behind 2022; there's also a drop in hashrate between 2021 and 2022.
The only reason that I see why hashrate dropped in the year 2021 is due to Tesla selling their Bitcoin holdings and maybe the mining ban in China; compared to today, both have different reasons, and I think one of the reasons today, or since January, is because of the war and tariffs.
I believe AI is the main reason why mining hash rate is falling in 2026, most miners might be shifting their resources for AI compute and that's why the mining hash rate might be falling. However, the miners who believe in Bitcoin long term value growth will keep their mining operations and will not shift toward AI sector but surely a good number of miners will shift because they'll get better profit in short term in AI sector.
Some miners switch not most.
Most would be 51% or more hash rate and 51% or more diff drop.
the Diff high was 155t
the diff now is 134t that is only 13.5% drop in hash not 51%
and price went down from 126 to 71 which is over 43% drop in price.
So hash is off a bit.
I estimate at least 1/2 of the 13.5% drop is Iran hash rate turned off by Iran maybe even destroyed by USA.
So that leaves 6.75% drop due to AI shifts and/or companies going bankrupt.
The breakdown of the 13.5 total drop may be
6.75% Iran
6.75% AI and companies shut down.
Many people do not realize a large power contract say 3 years 10 megawatts at 4 cents a kwatt can be transferred in some cases. So a mining plant does not refit it just sells it remains power contract off to an AI company.
Sorting
1) Iran 2) A.I. switch 3) bankruptcy
will be hard. But If Iran war continues for a while say till Sept 1 we will know better just how much is lost due to Iran
I am not referring to 2021 which was a bull market year for cryptocurrencies, I am referring to 2022 which was a bear market throughout the year. But I can understand what FP91G is saying, let us wait and see if the hash rate will be backup soon. But the way the hash rate increased in 2022 was different with mild fall followed by further increase.
The op is right in that 2022 did not crush the hash rate and difficulty that much as compared to nov 2025 to March 2026
but the op is missing out that you could not buy gear due to covid. it was very hard to buy gear during the 2021 runup. So when prices began to drop miners were still making money in 2022 thus the hash did not drop much in 2022
the op is also missing out on the Chinese miners were cracked down on in 2021 so there was gear that need to be shifted out of China and was being put back on line in later 2021 and in 2022.
this year usa power got turned down the big drop on this years chart
and Iran is turned down the later drop on this years chart.
btw we are going back up as I type
Hashrate will always increase over the long term. You may find periods of several months when it declines. Every year, new equipment appears, older equipment becomes unprofitable, and miners are forced to buy newer equipment with the same power consumption and higher hashrate.
this may not stay true anymore.
it may be how the four year cycle ends.
I tracked difficulty and hashrate for years and we do not have a 18 month or longer drop.
Ie 18 months has is lower than it was.
but maybe we will this time.
2026 has just started, too early to jump to any conclusions and saying hashrate dropped this year, hashrate consolidate even during price up trend, let alone now with power prices and a bad overall Bitcoin market, so any drop here and there is just another Tuesday, you need to revist this topic 8 months later.
yep as that gets us closer to the 18 month mark.
we never dropped at the 18 month mark.
So nov 2025 at 155t
means we need to be under 155T to break the 18 month pattern
may 2027 not so sure we see this.
The price could fall to $30,000, which wouldn't be a problem if it then returned to $70,000. Miners will have a problem when the Bitcoin price remains below the cost of mining for a long time.
We've seen this before: small companies went bankrupt, while large ones survived.
pretty much true maybe 80%
once in a while a country breaks shit like china did in 2021 and USA has done to Iran only difference is Iran had 5-8% of the has in 2026 and Chia had close to 40% in 2021
I'm not sure turning on and off a plant that consumes tens of megawatts is as easy as turning on and off a toilet light.
Energy companies won't sell that kind of capacity without long-term contracts. As evidence, there's plenty of information about miners not shutting down their equipment, but rather transferring their capacity to the AI industry.
Who else is waiting for cheap Asic miners when Bitcoin goes down to 48k or less? There is no better time to buy asic miners than when there is aassive dump in Bitcoin value.
Many miners will be forced to turn off their machines, the more the value is going down the less mining will be profitable, it's only those who can settle electricity bill while mining isn't profitable anymore will want to hold their Bitcoin for long term, some miners are mining Bitcoin and settling the electricity bill straight from that mining returns, many won't be able to keep up.
ASIC manufacturers are still fulfilling their old contracts. I don't see any particularly favorable prices for mining equipment yet.
If Bitcoin drops to $40,000 and stays there for a long time, mining equipment prices will also fall, but it's still too early to talk about that. Don't jump to conclusions; the market needs time for significant changes.
well the s21xp was as high as 7200
it is now 3600
it is pretty much the best in stock unit on the market.
https://altairtech.io/product/bitmain-antminer-s21-xp/ Here it is for usa buyers in stock 3599 price.
that is not a referral link for me. if you want to use a referral link use my signature to join the website. and order it.
I am not sure how long it will take it to go much lower than 3600 price.
it is about 12-13 watts a th pretty much the most efficient unit in stock for fast ship in the USA.
Yeah it will drop in price, but not so soon.
Is this a good seller in the US? It's already listed at $3,250.00.
https://bt-miners.com/products/bitmain-antminer-s21-xp-bitcoin-miner-270th-s-bt-miners/
A Bitmain Antminer S21 XP ASIC (270Th/s), at the current price of $3,000-$3,600 and the current Bitcoin price, will pay for itself in a few years, after which it becomes useless. I estimate 4-5 cents per kilowatt.