Crypto isn’t really a currency. It’s more like a betting agreement that heavily favors the house.
So what comes next after the US decides to ban cryptocurrencies? Well, maybe it’d be smart to give a nod to the Chinese communist leader for his surprisingly sensible approach to this issue.
Charlie Munger, who’s basically Warren Buffett's right-hand guy, is all about this.
To play a devil's advocate, Charlie Munger is 99 years old investor who spent his entire career chasing stocks with good "intrinsic" value. You can't really expect him to pivot on his approach at this stage in life.
He has a lot of interesting things to say, which doesn't mean he cannot be wrong.
And I don't get the "100% edge for the house" remark. Who would even be the house here? Satoshi? Early investors? 2nd wave of investors? Devs?
he could be right about crypto being securities and mostly being dumped to the retail investors for the early investors to make money. but SEC itself is not considering BTC as security and this is why Charlie did not say anything about BTC because he understands there is no entity nor insider trading that could happen in Bitcoin.
the problem is that even if they can ban crypto, it will exist somewhere else. and there is a lot to lose when crypto thrives without the US.
Yeah, I really don't understand here, it's not like gambling (maybe that's how they see it), but for us, it's a investment vehicle, sometimes to lose if you make the wrong decision and sell early and maybe the edge goes to the buyer because they got it cheap. Still though, you can't say it's a 100% guarantee win on the others party as he could also sell it at a lost.
As for Charlie Munger, he has a lot already, has the experience, but this is a new kind of investment that maybe this old dinosaurs don't have any clue that's why they attack it.
Charlie Munger & Warren Buffett have made a lot of people a lot of money and are USUALLY correct when it comes to markets.
They have also had some really impressive failures.
They are looking at BTC as investing in a stock / business which is what they do.
If you look at it as investing in a currency it's a different thing. Because in this day and age with most countries money no longer backed by gold or some other physical thing but rather just by that country promising that it's worth that much and people trading on that BTC looks a whole lot different.
It's also just his opinion. I think the entire Berkshire Hathaway thing is going to implode when Charlie and Warren do pass away. Most of the value they have built up is because of their passion and their drive. It's rare to find people like that who can drive a company that size for as long as they have and as well as they have. Once they are gone I don't see it staying up as high as it is.
-Dave
As a reason for the ban, the official cited the example of the FTX exchange collapse, adding that this is only one huge part of the overall problem. According to Brown, cryptocurrencies are dangerous and pose a threat to national security.
The most interesting thing is that while one high-ranking US Senate politician is doing everything possible to ensure that the cryptocurrency market is subjected to a rigorous audit, others are using cryptocurrency for personal purposes.
Despite the proposal for a ban, I think it will be very difficult to do so, as the activities may go to offshore jurisdictions.
FTX was the result of one manbaby and his schoolyard classmates running a $32 billion dollar exchange and getting ran all the way down with it when a bear market kicked in (they did not exist during the major 2018 bear market). That has nothing to do with any other reason that could be tangibly ascribed to "why crypto is bad".
True they will not easily move from one instrument to other or in this case bitcoin, and as far as I know that warren buffet itself doesn't believe in crypto.
I watched on youtube that some people don't belive in crypto there is other who don't believe in forex or other doesn't believe at stock. for me is just their perception
just do what u believe :
The US public debt is a global financial security issue. It has long been clear that no one will return 31 trillion to anyone, and the interest on the debt is growing every year. And when this bomb will explode, no one knows, but it will definitely explode.
The data for 2022 says that the US public debt is slightly less than $27 trillion, but if you look at the public debts of other countries in relation to their GDP, you will see that there are many whose debt is over 100% in relation to GDP, and Greece and Japan have even over 200%. It is undeniable that the US is in a problem, but a lot of other countries are in an even bigger problem and I am much more worried about everyone else than about the US - because they will find a way to get out of the problem, just like before.
https://eamond.com/public-debt-by-country-2022/
I have already said in other threads about Buffet and Munger that they simply come from another era and at the brink of death they are we are not going to make them understand what Bitcoin is.
And it's not that they don't understand this. They didn't understand tech stocks either. Only very belatedly did Buffett buy Apple stock.
Besides if they talk about "cryptocurrencies" they are not that far off the mark: there are currently a total of 22,505 and growing, 99% of which the only thing they are going to do is fleece the savings of the unwary who invest in them thinking they are going to make 1,000x in a short time.
Most of us here are below 50. Imagine having almost 100 years behind you. That's a lot of time in traditional finances. We're talking about people who were older than many of us bitcoin holders when Hitler was on the cover of Times magazine. We're talking about someone who went to school when nobody had a TV at home and you had to crank a telephone before making a call.
I'm willing to bet you this man doesn't use a smartphone and you expect this him to have an opinion about bitcoin? People who call it a scam or a ponzi should be given a simple test with a few basic questions about bitcoin, like what's the difference between public and private keys, what's a block, what is hash rate and only if they answer these should their opinion be taken into account.
Maybe we can estimate.
Assuming democrats put an unlimited debt ceiling and the debt continue to increase without limits (that is, the US won't suddenly decide do default early), interest rates will eventually become larger than most of the GDP.
According to this, 2022 interest payments were somewhere around $400 billion. So if we assume it goes up by 10% each year (and it's compound interest), then we have $1 trillion in 10 years, $2.6T in 20 and almost $7T in 30, and we're looking at $18T and $47T in 40 and 50 years from now respectively.
So yeah. It sure doesn't look like the US economy will be the world leader in 50 years time.
The debts of US is USD which they could just print $31T if they want to and give it to whoever they owe. Its the easypeasy way, it will however worse the inflation.
What the tinfoil hat guys are saying was that banning crypto will be the way to introduce the CBDC to the public. They were never wrong with their forecasts though which if its true then Americans will be using their CBDC and they'll be happy with the stimi along with it.
Well if inflation goes too up it will damage the GDP and will affect the gov's ability to make interest payments anyway, so that is hardly a reasonable option anyway. In fact the only lever that still works is issuing more bonds (and finding more bond investors and/or investors willing to buy more in bonds).
Yes, the phenomenon already grew too big to just ignore it.
Imagine what boring world we would live in if the current crypto demonization campaign came earlier...
I do not wish to seem disrespectful to the elderly, for we can certainly learn a lot from their wisdom. But wisdom is not knowledge. Investing in modern technologies like Bitcoin requires both wisdom and knowledge. This is why I do not trust the words of old people who do not know of how to do things in our modern times. They still live in the past and cannot comprehend the technology of today. Just watch one of them try to use a computer and you will understand what I mean.
This explains why there are so many boomers trying to "ban" something which is unbannable.