Wintermute: Crypto Market Leverage Cleared Out

Wintermute just dropped their latest market update and mentioned that a bunch of leverage in crypto has mostly been wiped out. They've been stacking up Bitcoin, which has helped chill some worries about selling pressure. But they also pointed out that big buyers like ETFs and others aren't showing the same demand as before. Until we see some better flows coming in, it looks like we're stuck in a range rather than kicking off a new uptrend. Sure, if we get a softer U.S. PCE number or things calm down in the Middle East, we might see a little bounce. But Wintermute thinks any move we see is probably gonna be more of a short-term spike instead of a solid market bottom.

This is interesting. I'll have to check more on this to be sure if my forecast is visible. Will Bitcoin head to the moon???

Bitcoin is already on the moon.

I expected Wintermute to have pretty good insight regarding leveraged position being flushed out . I however won't downplay this information, the market is truly in a low demand and the most recent dip isn't getting reactive rebounce which in other word means, less people are enthusiastic with the price action. Folks aren't interested to buy the dip because they are afraid and preparing for another bearish market to buy at the bottom.

Wintermute are big manipulators but they are right here, leverage is largely gone. The fact that we don't even bounce anymore also hints on that - bounces are usually shorts closing/covering. Besides onchain leverage (leveraged loans) have been reduced as well.

A follow-up: We're deep into the bear market, but the true low doesn't feel in yet. Capitulation is happening, sentiment is bleak, and BTC is sitting on its 200-week moving average, which marked the bottom in prior cycles. Those are the right ingredients. What's missing is confirmation in the form of buying pressure ramping up. The flows aren't there. ETFs are still bleeding, OTC shows the same, and the structural problem is that any liquidity unlocked by an eventual macro easing has a more attractive home in AI equities than in crypto. That's what changes the playbook versus prior cycles. Seasonality doesn't help. The market has never really bottomed in summer, and accumulation on thin summer volume is not really expected to happen. The more likely shape is some pain into September or October, then a potential recovery depending on how macro resolves. The catalysts are Thursday's payrolls, brought forward ahead of July 4, whether BTC defends the 200-week and the $58k zone, and how STRC trades into the new framework. The bull case needs the AI trade to cool and the funnels to turn. Neither has really happened yet. Source: https://x.com/wintermute_t/status/2071911143233511528

When the market is going down, the rich should have been accumulating in tunes of billions, they have the money to buy and hold and they do not need to sell so they can use that for living expenses, these are billions that is on the market one way or another, even if not on bitcoin, it's on something else. These people who are selling and getting out while not needing the money, are making a big mistake and should avoid that as much as possible. I understand it may not be easy to handle seeing it drop, but they are missing out on a chance to make a huge profit.