2009

I gotta say, the title "2009" isn't really accurate or only kinda fits, just like any other year like "2025" or "1981" or even "2104". The only reason for picking this title is we’re on a this forum and it kinda works for Bitcoin, plus it might catch some eyes more than something like "Searching for the roots of opportunity" or "The nests of black swans" which probably describe the issue better. So, reading through this forum, I've noticed a lot of nostalgic views that the early bitcoiners had an advantage over later ones. Some argue against that, claiming everyone started on equal footing and it was just a matter of when you jumped on the Bitcoin train since we all had the chance to grab BTC at low prices. But let’s take a step back and picture 2009 in the Bitcoin scene. Only a tiny handful of people maybe less than a thousand globally, which is like 0.00001% even knew about Bitcoin. And if they tried to share it, 99% of folks thought it was a scam, a ponzi scheme, a total joke... basically, nothing serious, definitely not something worth investing in (even if it had some future potential, anyone could just replicate it). So here’s my first thought (hypothesis 1): "About 99% of people just go with the flow and follow the leaders (like 'The Times', the president, etc.): they can see and hear but that’s about it." I think that’s pretty spot on.

Where is Bitcoin and where is Shitcoin? What did you compare it to? Shitcoin is constantly being created and is taking away people's money. But Bitcoin did not embezzle people's money in the beginning, but due to its trustworthiness, it is making people's future successful at the present time, people can invest in this Bitcoin to eliminate economic shortages in the future. Not only people, but you can eliminate economic shortages of the entire country through this Bitcoin. At the beginning of Bitcoin, people neglected Bitcoin and they are the ones who are regretting it the most today. Yet there is still enough opportunity to invest in Bitcoin. You can use the DCA method according to your ability and hold Bitcoin for a long time and eliminate future economic shortages.

It's not the same because in 2009, it was early and it was really design for micro-payments by Satoshi, so how can it be a shitcoin when it was established a used case already. Of course it's not the same as 2025 because Bitcoin has evolved, a. store of value b. hedge against inflation c. sound money d. can be traded in an exchange So your argument is very flawed mate.

Early stuff usually get fudded so hard. Back then internet was no different, being called bubble or just a fad. Turns out it's what revolutionize 21st century. Same thing with bitcoin in the early days. Back then the risk of it going to zero is huge because FDV and market cap is still small, therefore people are fading it and yes bitcoin back then compared to today is different if we talk about volatility, valuation, etc. Bitcoin of today feels like a precious asset, it's like gold but digital. Bitcoin back then in my opinion feels a lot more like currency and it is a currency.

Exactly, no one for sure even those who buy some during the early years thought that Bitcoin will go this far. But they are all wrong as obviously, the price goes off, still a lot of FUD around, but still as the prime mover, it slowly goes on every halving and bull run the price increases. 2017 - almost $20k 2021 - almost $70k 2024 - almost But it's going to be above $100k that is for sure. So it's a totally different Bitcoin if we look at in the beginning. Not even close and we don't know that it will evolved so big that everyone wanted to get a piece of sats.

The WINTER, I use this name to mark a period where the market is clearly irrational and tends to become even more irrational. Just like 2009 in the Bitcoin context (2010 and especially the second part of 2010 were the quite different season already with sharp price rices, winners and losers and some already declared that "they had missed the bus"). The WINTER is time full of potential, but the fruits are far far in the future. Hypothesis no 3: "The investors abilities to being aware, exploit and enjoy the WINTER are the main determinants of their success". Hypothesis no 4: "The WINTER is quite usual thing: every year has WINTERS." Hypothesis no 5: "Being aware of WINTER is unusual". Being aware of the WINTER is not the same as exploiting it, it is possible that investor has no resources to take a position (to go long or short) in irrationally undervalued (overvalued) asset. Exploiting of WINTER is not the same as enjoying it, it is possible that the impatience to get fruits is so great that investor loses his position before the next season begins. Some WINTERS are more liquid than others (enable to invest more resources is it). One prominent example of very liquid WINTER was the first part of 1991 in the Soviet Union where the prices of domestic assets formed only a fraction of the prices of foreign assets but the rouble/usd nominal exchange rate (instead of rising to eliminate this inequilibrium) prepares even to fall even more making domestic asset cheaper and cheaper and cheaper and it seemed that there were no end to this process. The Bitcoin WINTER was not liquid - it was not possible to invest even hundred thousand usd into it. You had not to be wealthy to be an early Bitcoiner. But you definitely needed some other resources. What kind of resources?

Its impossible to go back and compare then with now.  You would have to find a present blockchain with no monetary value and not considered much to begin with, too much has changed to really see things as they were then. Not 99% but sure most people just follow and its easier to do so just like following an established path vs trying to find a new one is alot more effort and prone to fail. Not really just people dont give a dam about something new and unproven, most of the time expecting failure or it just fades out to nothing would be correct; BTC is the rare exception and few thought or even cared to think otherwise.

I think I has much more fun to find a new bath even if it would not give a great profit. But I understand why others do not think so. Hypothesis no 6: "If you nostalgically think that there was some time in the past that was more wonderful, profitable and full of great opportunities than the present era, then you are destined to think the same about the present era in some future era". If you miss 2009 in 2025, then you will miss 2025 in (for example) 2033. Hypothesis no 7: "The greatest profit you can get from history studies, is reaching the hypothesis no 6". There could be the subject "The WINTER" in schools, or at least the subject "The crisis" that is its close relative. When I studied economics almost nothing was talked about these wonderful themes.

I don't think you know what "shitcoin" means. A shitcoin is not a cryptocurrency that is small with low price and is used by a few people. A shitcoin is a cryptocurrency that has one or more of the following characteristics: useless, has many bugs, has nothing new to offer, centralized, mutable blockchain, has a flawed protocol, etc. Bitcoin is none of that, not now and not back in 2009. When Bitcoin started, it was (as it is today) a decentralized censorship resistant payment system with a solid protocol and an immutable blockchain and a capped supply.

Even if it was now still vast majority of people would still be against Bitcoin because they don't know about the technology. Same it's to when new things are introduced to people especially when they have no ideas of how it functions they would automatically kicked against it because they don't know how it being used or how it functions and the benefits it would give them. And Yes, we can't turn back the hands of time to where it was before or where it started before but now, I think people are becoming to understand how the technology works and also the benefits for holding Bitcoin in their custody. I think here you are getting it twisted because Bitcoin still remains Bitcoin and since then there was no other Bitcoin that has launched or introduced, rather what I think that happens is that more people are delving into Bitcoin to know more it, and now it's not mostly valued unlike the initial time it was launched. So, I am against you here saying it was shitcoin and in fact if I was to say I would directly refers that to altcoins and not Bitcoin where all altcoin tape their knowledge to produce their coins.

Yes, I have concluded from the context that shitcoin is purely subjective term. It is a coin with low reputation. "A shitcoin is a slang term for a cryptocurrency with little to no inherent value, purpose, or long-term potential". If these words was not said about Bitcoin in 2009, then I am wrong.

There were big dreamers who dreamed in 2009 that Bitcoin will hit 10 000 or more usd some day, but there were ignored.