Is the 4-year cycle still relevant?
Why do folks keep saying I should hold for ages when I genuinely think Bitcoin will hit a new all-time high in the next four years?
Are there really people out there who don’t care about hitting new ATHs every four years?
My plan is to cash out every four years and then buy back in to increase my Bitcoin stash.
When people suggest holding for 10 years or more, it feels like I’m being told to hold forever. Who knows if I’ll even be around in a decade? That’s why I prefer to take profits and enjoy them, then set my sights on the next 4-year cycle since it’s still a thing.
Am I off base here?
How do you handle your holding and profit-taking?
Am I missing something here
19 replies 31 views
Selling at every ATH to buy back wouldn't grow your bitcoin portfolio compared to when you are only DCAing for two or more circles. It's your bitcoin, you sell whenever, you want but don't regret your actions in the next ten years when bitcoin price will be very expensive and you are still here. Plan for your future by buying and hodli for more than a circle because your profit isn't running.
your fears about not staying alive for the next 10!years is well understood. However it is best to have a good holding in bitcoin before you think of taking out profit from your investment. Bitcoin rewards patients and consistency and for majority it takes time for them to be able position there bitcoin holdings well.
The best time I believe is appropriate to take profits is when we have accumulated a reasonable amount and our holdings is in good profits.
The longer your holding the better the hances to make more profits, however, this is being tied to the condition of when you're about to sell your asset, lets take for instance this period, if you're selling now, its still in profit but far away from the $126,000 we had already, while if you should continue holding at the same time till at the next bullrun, you can as well make up to $250,000 to $300,000 by then.
You mean not to be here in the forum or what?, actually even if you left here before 10 years doesn't mean you should also do the same in Bitcoin, while you are not here you can still be on your Bitcoin investment, the key fact is knowledge and since you have it you don't have to be in a place before you can have the feeling of holding it. However I can see that it was because of the halving you are keeping it with four years holding but after selling at that time don't you think you could have missed alot of things because the fifth year is also were you could see a price higher than all the ones you have seen within the four years, that's why I believe five years is better on this cycle scenario.
If you are talking about uncertainty, then there is no point of investing in the first place because there is not a guarantee that we can even make it to the end of this circle. the reason why it looks like we are looking at a very long term while investing is because for the most part, the amount a average investing his putting into his bitcoin investment is relatively small and for that, it will take time before he must have accumulated a reasonable amount. The four year circle is still a thing as long as during that period you are able to accumulate a good amount of bitcoin and have attained your goal. if after being invested for a circle and the asset you have is not something you can boost with, then what is the essence of exiting because you have stayed a circle? is it now about how many circle you have remained invested or how much bitcoin you have acquired during that period?
Over the years there has being a lot of changes and that includes the value price of bitcoin and what many people can afford in owning it in sats. That's why a lot of persons now align towards holding beyond just one ATH. And right now people don't only view bitcoin as a digital currency but as an asset they ought to have as part of their portfolio, so making them care less about selling over an ATH.
How does the idea make you think you can grow your bitcoin quantities by buying and selling in between ATHs? The very best method to grow your bitcoin and make huge returns in profit that's if you're investing is to hold without selling for more than just one cycle, especially since some of us ain't buying a whole bitcoin at a go but in sats.
You mustn't hold for 10 years, particular if you're already advanced to an older age but if you're young and vibrant then holding for such years as 10 can be immensely beneficial to you if you are accumulating constantly within the years.
In a nutshell, our age should also influence the numbers of years we plan on holding aside from our income sources.
cold5tor4geSenior Member
Posts: 349 · Reputation: 1415
#8Jul 2, 2020, 01:29 AM
You have misunderstood the concept of long term and volitilities, and what you should get clear right now is that bitcoin four year cycle doesn't mean the price will do an all time high even though in most cases bitcoin will record multiple all time high price within that 4 year cycle, so is not a guarantee to have such price records and not an impossibility.
Bitcoin cycle refers to bitcoin halving cycle which happens every 4-year cycle, you can do more research about Bitcoin halving to better understand what bitcoin cycle means
I find your post more interesting, I've been in the space for a longer period of time, it takes period of 4-6 year cycle to reach ATH and not exactly 4 years. If that is your plan to keep within that period, you should start the investment now 2026 and be ready to sell it off 2032.
Because, buying now at bearish season is more better than waiting for it to start rising, it's better earlier than later.
Yes, 4 year cycle is still a thing and there's no such thing as super-cycle. This year is the start of the bearish cycle, so you might want to start your accumulate phase here. Depends on your method, whether you want to buy in lump sump or DCA for the next 4 years or so.
I guess those who advises that wants you to maximized your profits. But then again, it's really up to you, if you wanted to sell every 4 years and take profits then do that. Investing in crypto is not set in store. Everyone is very different in terms of their investment goal. If you have one then stick to it. Don't be bothered by what others is saying.
So there's no right or wrong investment scheme.
boss_wizardSenior Member
Posts: 270 · Reputation: 1192
#11Jul 3, 2020, 09:50 AM
You're free to do what you want. 4 cycle is clearly still a thing and saying otherwise would be delusional. If you can find the top, you're gonna make good profit but not many of us can do that.
That is why we are using DCA strategy to manage our investment and we generally do not care about the 4 cycle, only sell when we want to otherwise hold all the way until it has grown big enough.
It's a choice between buy low sell high and risk doing it wrong or simply holding.
CalmLedgerSenior Member
Posts: 236 · Reputation: 1270
#12Jul 3, 2020, 04:04 PM
No one know if the 4 years cycle still a thing or not and that is what we see until now. You don't have to thinks about 4 cycle but only focus on your Bitcoin investment.
That is no problem if you want to take profit every 4 years and buy back again when the bear run comes. But others may hodl longer than you and many of them already hodl for more than 10 years.
We have our own plan with Bitcoin investment. If you want taking profits as you say, that is good for you. I am taking profits in ATH whether that is 4 or 8 years. But if I have more Bitcoin, I will sell some amounts at 4 years cycle.
I would say 4-year cycle is still real because we have seen bulls approaching every 4 years. The bulls continue for a couple of months or maybe a year as we saw previously and it is hard to identify how long the bullish trend will stay but expecting the markets to climb every 4 years can be real. Many people invest thinking that in a few years, bullish trend will come and give them profits. This is the core reason why minor investors join bitcoins thinking they can make profits every 4 years and will continue to buy bitcoins just so they can have number of bitcoins in their portfolio like OP thinks.
There is nothing wrong in this though but OP, you should be prepared to not see the next bull cycle this time because we have seen the trends changing really fast. I think holding bitcoins for 4 years is anyways going to give you profits because in these 4 years, the price will definitely climb above your entry price giving you opportunity to book profits. You should have a calm mind to book profits though.
If you're not so sure you won't be here in 10 years, why are you so sure you'll be here in 4 years? no one can even guarantee they'll be alive tomorrow, you might stumble tonight and end up in a coma tomorrow, no one knows for sure.
and if people say to hold for a longer period, like 10 years, it's to ensure you can truly profit from your investment. although 1 cycle (4 years) is a long time, it's actually not that long, at least you can hold it for 2 cycles to give your investment more room to grow and to ensure that you can make a profit, but if you're so sure that 1 cycle can give you a profit, that's up to you.
I am sure that learned or experience users will only ask you to invest or treat bitcoin according to your own risk but must tell you from experience that Bitcoin investment is not like one of those you will hang closely to the window and regularly checking your time panicking over the parabolic volatility creating FOMO that eventually can lead you to sell before your early plans.
Long term investment does not necessarily mean you must hold for that period of 10 years, a minimum of 4 years could also be regarded as a long term goal because you are said to had hold along the bear to the bull which is a completely halving cycle timing.
The duration (4years) can also fetch you a perceive peak but in the case that Bitcoin somehow does not follow the historical cycle as thought, definitely you would hold in longer term unless you have press needs.
'a very long time' is a subjective phrase or length of time and could mean different lengths
of time to different people. 4 years in my book is a very long time, but so is 10 years.
Anything can happen within those time frames.
and thats a great thing to do. You will probably find though that those who take that
move every cycle dont sell all of their Bitcoin instead they 'hold for a very long time'
and turn a percentage into profit to buy back at a lower price.
This is completely different to those who buy towards the top of the market which is ok
but dont have a plan like 'hold for a (very) (extremely) (unbelievably) long time' and
end up selling at a loss.
Anyway regardless the general idea is to have a long term outlook, after that (or before it)
anyone is entitled to do whatever they like with it.
block_2018Senior Member
Posts: 155 · Reputation: 949
#17Jul 7, 2020, 07:47 AM
Everyone says to hold for a long time because it is to have the patience to control yourself even in unstable market conditions. No one can say for sure that every 4 years there is a cycle, but this cycle is a much bigger ATH than the first one. And that is why there is a bigger profit for holding for a long time. Everyone has a thought about Bitcoin cycles. Those who have been in the Bitcoin market for a long time know how the Bitcoin market reacts. Since the Bitcoin market is currently in a downtrend, now is the opportunity to buy Bitcoin to stay ahead of others in the next cycle, because a bear market is the perfect time to accumulate more Bitcoin.
Yes, if it's no longer a thing we don't see exactly after 4 years which was last year a new ATH.
Because of the cycle.
I don't think so, when someone does their research. They'd be very aware of the 4 year cycle.
10 years of holding is like for people who have decided to do that, you don't have to follow other people's decision of doing it. Because it could be for their retirement while you might still be young at that time. You can sell whenever you want as long as you're in profit in that period.
No strategy for holding, just hold. And for profit taking, you sell whenever you think it's appropriate.
If you're a firm believer of the 4-year cycle, that's the perfect mindset that you should have.
Buying during the bear market, accumulate after the bear market then sell it all during the bull market. Rinse and repeat.
Sounds simple, right? The problem is that, we've seen events that we haven't seen for Bitcoin, and while the 4-year cycle has became a "self-proclaimed prophecy" where many thinks that it will always happen every time, there's always a chance that it might not happen at all. We expect that the market moves every 4 years yes, but there's always this possibility that it will not that's why some are suggesting to hold it even longer which for me doesn't make any sense whatsoever. You're not wrong, but I'm a bit bias because that's my strategy as well. I don't see any sense of holding cryptocurrencies for more than 4 years.
I already sold all of my holdings during and after the bull market, and now currently stacked on stablecoins. I'll just wait for the bottom to happen then I'll DCA on buying Bitcoin as well as other altcoins.
probablynoth1ngFull Member
Posts: 43 · Reputation: 334
#20Jul 7, 2020, 06:50 PM
4 years thing is still a "thing", people will claim that it is not, it happens every time. Whenever we are in the bull year, there will come out some people who will say that it will go down, and whenever we are in the bear period there will come out and some people will say it will be a lot higher.
None of that will happen, but we can expect the unexpected things to happen which must the beauty of market. This cycle is so far different like a new ATH happened earlier than previous cycles hence bottom also may get tested earlier.