LuPosts: 34 · Reputation: 317
Anyone else here interested in figuring out how crypto Market Makers manage their risks? I've created some tools, and now I'm looking for people to put them to the test.
I've been working on my own options analytics platform for a couple of years now. The focus is on tracking whale hedging and what institutions are up to.
We're talking about the usual stuff: options, futures, open interest, Greeks, and Black-Scholes derivatives. Nothing too flashy, just solid financial math all in one spot.
The aim is to get a grasp on the market structure:
- where dealers are hedging
- how exposure changes with price movements
- what the big players are actually doing
Feel free to jump into the discussion here or shoot me a PM.
Just a heads-up, this isn’t trading advice. It’s more of a nerdy deep dive that probably isn’t very exciting for most people.
LuPosts: 34 · Reputation: 317
GEX ANALYSIS CHART
View GEX Chart (click to open)
This is ETH options across ALL active expirations from tomorrow's daily (04 FEB) to December 2026 quarterly. You can toggle any combination of expiry dates.
Left Chart = GEX (Gamma Exposure)
The bars show dealer gamma at each strike:
Green = positive gamma. Dealers are short calls here: they BUY when price drops, SELL when price rises. This dampens volatility.
Red = negative gamma. Opposite effect: dealers amplify moves.
Key levels on the chart:
Flip Zone: $2281 = the price level where dealer gamma flips from positive to negative.
Above Flip Zone: dealers have positive gamma they sell rallies, buy dips and price movement gets suppressed, lower volatility, mean-reversion regime
Below Flip Zone: dealers have negative gamma they sell dips, buy rallies (hedge in the same direction as price) price movement gets amplified, higher volatility, trending/breakout regime
Scenario 1: Large positive gamma above, small negative gamma below
Example: Green zone = +1000 GEX, Red zone = -10 GEX
Above the flip, dealers are heavily long gamma - they absorb selling pressure by buying dips. Below - minimal negative gamma, so even if price crosses the flip, there's little hedging flow to accelerate the move.
High probability bounce. The large positive gamma above acts as a cushion. Price may dip below flip, but without significant negative gamma to fuel momentum, moves get dampened. Mean-reversion dominates.
Scenario 2: Small positive gamma above, large negative gamma below
Example: Green zone = +100 GEX, Red zone = -10,000 GEX
Weak support above = dealers don't have much long gamma to absorb selling. Below the flip = massive short gamma exposure.
Breakdown risk. Once price crosses into the negative gamma zone, dealers must hedge WITH the move (selling as price drops). The larger the negative gamma, the more aggressive the hedging flow. This is where cascades happen Barbon & Buraschi (2021) documented that negative gamma days show significant intraday momentum or impulse.
The magnitude on each side determines the behavior.
Large positive gamma above + small negative below = wall, price bounces.
Small positive above + large negative below = trapdoor, price accelerates through.
This effect is amplified in less liquid markets : the same gamma imbalance moves crypto more than SPX because hedging flows have bigger price impact relative to available liquidity.
COG: $2291 Center of Gravity, the "fair value" based on gamma distribution
Max Pain: $2200 : where option holders lose the most. Price tends to drift here into expiry.
Discussion welcome.