So yesterday, someone hit the jackpot when they solved block 924569 with just 6 TH/s, raking in 3.146 BTC. With that level of hashrate, you're looking at about a 1 in 1.2 million chance of cracking a block every day. Even if you grind for 10 years straight, you'd still only have around a 0.3% chance of hitting it big. And let's not forget, this assumes difficulty stays the same, which it definitely won’t over time, so it’ll actually be even less.
Is trying your luck a smart move? You could say the odds are stacked against you, and it’s super likely you’ll never win, plus, miracles don’t happen... or you can take a gamble, because hey, hope is the last thing to die. In this thread, I’m going to compare the traditional lottery to lottery mining with a Bitaxe Gamma 601 and explain why lottery mining might actually look better for anyone still rooting for miracles.
Chance
In the typical 6-number lottery where folks pick 5 numbers from 1 to 49, the odds are about 1 in 14 million. A Bitaxe miner cranks out 1.2 TH/s, giving you around a 1 in 7 million shot at winning every single day.
Reward
Winning the lottery usually nets you around $1-3 million before taxes. Meanwhile, mining a bitcoin block can reward you with at least 3.125 BTC if you hit it before 2028, down to 1.5625 BTC before 2032, and 0.78125 BTC before 2036. In conservative forecasts, we can all agree those amounts could easily hit $300k at each of those points in time.
Cost
In my country, a lottery ticket runs about €1, so I’ll be kind and call it $1. A Bitaxe with 1.2 TH/s uses about 17 watts, which translates to roughly 12 kWh a month. In my place, that’s around...
But...at least here in the US most lottery prizes are not just the "big" one but many lower tiers also so that does have to be taken into account.
https://nylottery.ny.gov/all-winning-numbers
As an example.
-Dave
They are all more expensive, in my experience. In bitcoin, you can just play every day, for as long as the mining chip works. No lottery game can be played 30 times a month for $3.
Just for the record, Bitcoin Cash has a difficulty of 938 G. That's 6.82 EH/s. That means you have 0.000017595% chance of hitting a block in 10 minutes, or 0.0025% in a day. That's 1 in 39 thousand days. At 5 years running, you'd have ~4% chance of hitting a block, which today is worth something around $1600? And that's until the next halving which is a lot sooner than 5 years.
Better go for the big bucks.
What I was saying that (using 30 days months) that it's usually not $30 a month @ $1 a day.
It's usually $30 a month - some small amount of tiny $1 and $2 wins which skews the math a bit.
-Dave
I think that I was really conservative with the cost. Powerball ticket costs $2 and you have 1 in 24.9 chances to win any prize; with $4 being the lowest, you're expected to pay something around $55-60 a month. Mega Millions ticket costs $2 and you have 1 in 24 chances to win any prize. Lotto America ticket costs $1 but only wins on jackpot (1 in 25 million). "Lucky for Life" is another lottery ticket that costs $2 where the lowest prize odds are 1 in 1.8 million. In fact, I challenge you to find me a lottery ticket that costs $1 and has a lowest prize odds better than 1 in 1 million.
Interesting comparison! Lottery mining really highlights the extreme odds in both cases. With 6 TH/s, hitting a block is incredibly unlikely, but unlike a traditional lottery, mining still provides some tangible progress, like accumulated fees or small rewards, even if you dont hit the big block.
I agree its mostly about hope and risk tolerance. For someone chasing a miracle, mining gives a tiny chance of a huge reward, while at least contributing to the network. Its a fascinating way to think about lottery odds in a more technical sense.
I'd like to add a few important points.
The equipment can break down in a year, but here it's five years.
I'm looking at reports of winners in solo mining lotteries, and the winners usually have higher hashrates than 1.2 TH/s. So, right now, I'd be playing the lottery with an AVALON Q 90 TH/s ASIC or something similar.
Exactly my point, I am happy for this person to have use 6th to solve a Bitcoin block but I won't dare try it because I knew the chances are too slim, also there are many 6th solo miners like him because such miners are dirty cheap now.
I will prefer to use 90TH burning somewhere between 800watts or max or 1000watts per day, having the energy available and moving on with your life you will likely get lucky some day compare to someone who depends on 6TH.
I have to accept with you, it is better to play the lottery with a significant amount of hash rate than to settle for something very small like 6TH, this person is simply just extremely lucky, the impossible happened in his case.
90 TH/s are also rookie numbers. You have 1 in around 83 thousand chance to find a block every day, and about 0.44% chance to find a block in one year. That's finding a block once every 227 years on average. The electricity cost is definitely noticeable, however. Electricity varies on location, but assuming kWh costs a conservative $0.20 in your place, and the miner burns 800 watt, you'll be paying $115 per month just for playing the lottery. Maybe if you're financially well, it's a fun game to play, but gambling $115/month is forbidden for most people.
Well personally I think it's pretty wild if you ask me. Basically let us consider a miner who for the fun of mining and running a node has a decent setup in his basement and then he wakes up one morning to his routine check and discovers he successfully caught a block. Well it's like the network giving back to you for your kindness.
Anyways I think the major turn off people experience when it comes to running a node is electricity cost and in some countries it's pretty high.
This equipment has 3 modes: ECO 800 W for 54 TH/s / STANDARD 1200 W for 80 TH/s / SUPER CONSUME 1670 W for 90 TH/s
https://www.rigsmineria.com/ru/canaan-avalon-q-bitcoin-home-miner-90-th-s/
An interesting analysis that may encourage some to try solo mining despite the fact that the chances of finding a block are very small, but as we see, it happens from time to time. It seems to me that I would rather find a block than win the lottery, maybe because I mostly play Eurojackpot which has 50 + 12 numbers (you have to guess 5 out of 50 + 2 out of 12) for the main prize - but the prizes are a minimum of 10 million EUR and up to 120 million EUR. The price per combination is 2 EUR.
If you were to make a comparison of how many people mine a solo block per year with lottery jackpot winners in the US or the EU, what would be the conclusion?
There are way more lottery jackpot winners than solo block solvers, but there are far more people playing the lottery than solo mining. Here's a math-based fun fact, though: If 7 million people bought a single Bitaxe Gamma 601, they would add 7 EH/s to total hashrate, and about one block per day would be solved by one of these devices. With "just" 7 million people across the world, or less than 0.1% of the population, having a Bitaxe running in their house, we would expect lottery miners to find block every day.
@BlackHatCoiner, thanks for the math I've actually always been interested in trying mining, not something serious, but something like what's being discussed here. I see that there are stronger Bitaxe Gamma Turbo GT devices that reach over 2 TH/s, and I'm really curious if they could be used for a dual purpose - mining and maybe heating smaller rooms?
I know that regular devices produce a lot of heat, but I'm not sure about these smaller ones.
A stronger device than Gamma 601 is the Nerdqaxe++, which generates 4.8 TH/s. It's essentially the same chip, but four times. You usually find it cheaper than buying four Gamma 601, though.
No, these devices do not generate any tangible heat. If you want some heat without buying a big miner, consider Canaan Avalon Nano 3S. It'd be nice to have it close to your desk, maybe it warms your feet. It isn't noisy either, 36 dB is nothing. And it generates 6 TH/s. Quite good deal for $300.
I'd recommend reading reviews of the equipment. Inexperienced users often buy this type of equipment, thinking it requires no maintenance.
If you plan to use it as a heater, be sure to clean it of dust.
I'm fairly jealous of the electricity costs elsewhere in the world. I believe even the US has some decent rates compared to the UK. I'd probably throw a lot more at it if it wasn't so expensive. Even running 50TH's units costs a little bit each month. I think I might get carried away though, and end up having a shed/garage full of them.
In the UK if you stacked 6 nerdqaxe++'s you could be north of £100 a month with the consumption at the wall. They generally take around 90-100W at the wall at stock settings. Tuning them you might get a bit less. Hydro units seem to draw less power from my observation, which I assumed with the additional components wouldn't be true. Also, could be just lucky with those units I suppose.
I think 25-30THs might be the sweet spot for cost, contributing a tiny amount of power to the network to benefit it, but also be in it to win it.
True, but 10 minutes every fortnight / month depending on your risk tolerance should do it. Obviously, every time you're doing maintenance there's a small risk of breaking things just by handling them, and the cleaning process itself. I'm assuming a lot of people go for a lot longer with their maintenance schedules.
You could potentially get fancy, and build a bigger case for them and have a positive airflow. Seems a bit overkill for lottery mining though.
Nano 3s are not strong, I read that people had problems with them, I guess this is the weakest out of all the miners built by Canaan in the past few years, I would still recommend BitAxe and NerdAxe over every other small solo miners, I would avoid Nano 3s and for anyone looking for something more stronger I would make a jump to Avalon Q instead.
I will choose solo mining over buying lottery ticket any time, coming from someone who runs electricity using solar panels and backup batteries, solo mining costs me nothing, free energy equals free lottery tickets every day, good luck to all solo miners on here, happy lottering.