So, the war kicked off and the markets opened on Monday, only to see a drop. Not every market was up on Monday; some only opened on Wednesday, and guess what? They’re all dropping too.
Bitcoin took a slight dip after the war, like it always does, but then it started climbing back up. It's sitting around $74000 now.
Honestly, it’s pretty great to see bitcoin throw a wrench in their expectations. People were betting on it to drop.
I think bitcoin decoupled from the rest of the markets for some time now. It's hard to predict what it's going to happen anymore.
Gold and silver were doing great a couple of weeks back, bitcoin? not so much. In fact, it was quite the opposite.
The war started? A lot of people were expecting it to go down (with everything else) as you mentioned, it did but not as much as people expected it to.
So where are we at? the 4-year cycle bear market? a super cycle? It's hard to know to what's next.
Gold and other precious metal are also performing poorly
The sad truth is Bitcoin performs well during crisis especially one as war
Where a payment method that isn't tied to a single country would be needed
i.e A neutral Currency.
But I don't think this would last long
The market general sentiment is still bearish and this feels more like a relief pump
Even if I want to be the start of an iconic rebound.
Bitcoin seems to be telling those who expect it to crash like other markets that the Bitcoin market is not the same as the stock market and other markets that crashed when the war started.
Today, I witnessed how the price chart slowly rose to $74,000 from $67,400.
Around me, I also witnessed how people lost money trading on Nasdaq. I didn't dare remind them that it's not a way to make money, it's the same as gambling.
You can't say that stock trading is gambling, because stock traders make quite good money from the stock market. You could say it's a gamble for those who don't know much about it, and in that case, any market or any sort of trading can be called gambling if the person doing it knows nothing about the market and how it should be done in the first place, however, if someone has enough knowledge about the market, understands the movements of the assets available in that market, they can actually make good money from it.
In this market, the crypto market, there are so many people who lose money on a daily basis, but there are also people who make a lot of money from it regardless of it going up or down, and that's because they have knowledge and experience and they put that to work, they do spot trading when they know the market can go up, and they short it when they know it could go down, and they manage their risks very well so that they don't lose more than they are making, and that is how it should be, and that can only be done with knowledge and experience.
I think everyone understands that Bitcoin is extremely oversold right now. 🙋 It traded around $100,000 for almost a year, and then the price dropped to $59,000...
Institutional players have entangled Bitcoin in a web of derivatives, stocks, bonds, spot ETFs, KYC, AML, laws, regulations, and so on. However, a major war broke out in the Middle East, and everyone realized that Bitcoin is the best way to evacuate capital from a war zone, and not a speculative asset at all (as institutional players tell us)...💸
I think many people in the Middle East have now started using Bitcoin for its intended purpose (that is, as real money). The cost of evacuating a family from Dubai (via private jet) reached $250,000 (!). In such emergencies, Bitcoin is precisely what can help people. When war breaks out, luxury real estate becomes a liability, not an asset. And Bitcoin becomes money.
It's up to you.
I'm not a trader in any market, even though you say stock trading makes money. For me, not everything that makes money has to be through trading.
I want to laugh to myself when the Bitcoin market disappoints people who expect it to fall like other markets, so that when Bitcoin rises while other markets fall, it disappoints these people.
Stock market movement has always been different from crypto of course, stocks are down because or not because of the war? Can't tell.
Besides, can stock market override the weight of the war just the way Bitcoin did? Can't tell.
But the story not ended yet, there may be shocking movement in the future both in crypto and the stock market, who knows,
Well, most of us here are thinking a lot about the war and thinking that it would have a negative impact on Bitcoin.
Honestly, I'm not relying too much on news; it is a gamble for me to analyze the market just for the news. That is why most of my analyses are more on technicals than news that only gives a bit of impact unless the news is related to the whole market that affects worldwide.
About some stocks' correlation I saw some a few weeks ago but I think the only reason why it correlates it's because of the tariff or any event that affects the whole market but right now is different.
When a war starts, bitcoin will fall a little. This is what is deceiving people.
I have posted that during Russia invasion of Ukraine, bitcoin fell immediately Putin made the speech about the start of the war, but bitcoin rose back before the next day.
How about the war in East Asia?
Example is when Hamas launched over 2000 missiles to Israel, bitcoin first fall. How about when Iran sent missiles to Israel also, bitcoin first fell. How about when Isreal with the United States launched coordinated attack on Iran last year, bitcoin first fell. All these happened during bull run, bitcoin increased. The thing is that, bitcoin first fell in all these that I mentioned but within hours, it increased back which were less than two days. It also happened now which is no more new.
The same scenario happened before in the Russia-Ukraine issue, we saw even stock markets plummeted but recovered after.
Now, I'm already curious whether it's a good thing or not that Bitcoin is starting to become correlated with the stock market, especially a few months ago, but the dumps on Bitcoin are too huge compared to the stock market.
Bitcoin is as unpredictable an asset can get, everybody is spouting some speculation but nobody really know whats gonna happen.
It will always caught people off guard at the time people least expected. The war should've made bitcoin price goes down but the opposite happens and you will never know why.
As a holder, I'm happy though.
Yes, a group of critics have kept their mouths shut when Bitcoin's price started its upward trend. They thought that the war would cause a much larger decline. Bitcoin's price fluctuates based on its demand, not against the tide. The market decline has not intensified and the index is rising a few days after the start of the three-way war in the Middle East (between the United States, Israel and Iran). This trend continues today after the upward trend of the last two days.
It's truly hard to know tbh. You can't tell if it's the cycle, but you can tell if it's a cuper cycle. You can't even tell if Bitcoin went down because of the 4-year cycle or because of the geopolitical events. Now that it is going up amid a war involving the biggest economy in the world and one of the most economically strategic countries in the Middle East, we can't even tell why or what's next. I must say, I don't envy Bitcoin traders.
So many small and grand things are happening at the same time, and when you put them together it has an impact of Bitcoin, but it's difficult to know hoe all these events will play out.
You, who claim to be an expert in trading, should know that just because two assets are correlated does not mean that the correlation is 1 to 1 and that it will remain so over any period of time. What has happened over a couple of days does not invalidate the correlation. And mind you, I'm not saying that the correlation exists. In fact, I don't believe it does. If anyone believes it does and wants to convince me otherwise, they would have to explain why the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 are flat so far this year, while bitcoin is down 17%. Or why both indices ended 2025 up 17% and 20%, while Bitcoin fell 6%.
Before the Israel launch the missile the Bitcoin is dropping when gold and silver hit all time high bitcoin keep decline I think this just matter liqudity move the money stay same but they just move from different instrument to another.
Back then Bitcoin doesnt have corelation with stock nor other geopolitical issue but after getting recognized by lot of people I believe now have correlate with the stock this week lot of stock is tanked here in indonesia too but we can see the Comoddity starting soaring high that including bitcoin
In my opinion, the entire financial market is equally unpredictable, not just Bitcoin. Unlike usual, gold tend to rise whenever a war breaks out but something unexpected happened in the past few days as gold fell. Everything seems to be completely turned upside down in this war, and it is almost impossible to predict.
Therefore, I think that to become a successful investor. What we need to do is manage risk and prepare for all possible scenarios, instead of spending too much time trying to predict.