Bitcoin Approaching Key Support Level

Hey everyone, I'm back with another important update Bitcoin is getting really close to a significant support trendline that held strong back in 2022 and even during the COVID crash. This trendline has been a key factor in Bitcoin's price movements for around 8 years now. If Bitcoin drops below $60,000 on the weekly candle, that support will be broken. Looking at the Cycle Low Multiple Chart, it seems like Bitcoin is heading down just like it has in previous cycles. If we stick to the 364-day pattern we've seen in the last two cycles, the next Bitcoin bottom could be around the first week of October 2026. Let’s see how this cycle plays out. I’ll keep you posted in my next update. Good luck to everyone for the upcoming cycle!

I think the spike in oil prices due to the pool being closed might be followed by a recession just like in 1975, 1990, 2001, and 2008. BTC price will most likely face collateral damage from everything else crashing if that happens. Private credit, circular funding, and overvaluation of AI/LLM companies are the culprits this time instead of housing. Do you think that the 4 year cycle will line up with the possible recession or the BTC price behavior will act independently from it? October is still 6 months away and a lot can happen involving the broader world ecomony/markets between now and then. Nice post btw, cool charts.

Pandemic during COVID-19 outbreak is ultimate proof that Bitcoin will be fine even with recession since Bitcoin is being used to hedge against economic crisis. The price pump and recovers after the sharp fall even the pandemic back then is still in effect and hurt the global economy. It’s been a long time since I look on chart for a long trend line but that shows both positive and negative depending on what will be the movement on the price when it touches the trend line.

The BTC price wouldn’t actually act independently but will always get influenced by this global market, if recession actually hits the world economy then bitcoin will react. The reaction though depends on the investors take, could me more demand for bitcoin in time when people actually do want to get away from anything fiat currency or more supply for it. Yes October is two quarters away and you might be thinking about the events that could unfold in this period of time that could actually Changes bitcoin market trend. This analysis by OP is just his own personal prediction but I tell you with it been an historical trend it might happen, bitcoin has the ability to consolidate for so long in midst crisis just to actually fill the inducement at that support. The timing though might not be accurate due to the fact that bitcoin cannot be perfectly predicted

It's good to see you're doing well. At least the bottom looks above $36,000, which is a good thing. we can expect the worst is yet to come.

I like that you're optimistic. I, on the other hand, would view it negatively. Anything below $60,000 before next month would be a disaster in my eyes, as it would mean a negative 5-year return. To date, Bitcoin has yielded a return of just 23% over the past five years, underperforming both gold and the U.S. stock market. Turning negative would be a blow.

I don't think the last five years have been normal enough to judge Bitcoin's long-term trend; it's been roughly the craziest six years in decades. Let's hope the worst is yet to come, something above $35,000.

Bitcoin isn't even two decades old, so talking about “decades” in the plural makes my head spin. Given that Bitcoin has been around for 17 years, talking about a 5-year period means looking at 30% of that time, which is a significant time frame. Furthermore, it’s more common to rely on recent years to predict what might happen in the future rather than on more distant ones. We shouldn’t expect that with a price of $70K and a market cap of $1.41 trillion, returns will exceed 1,000 percent as they did in some of the early years. It is normal for an asset that matures and grows in price and market cap for returns to flatten out, as has happened over the past 5 years. While this does not mean the price will remain flat in the future, I do believe we should not have very high expectations for future returns (though if, for whatever reason, the future price of Bitcoin surprises us positively, so much the better).

What makes it look optimistic is when he say above $36k but overall both are still negative (at least for us) because we are born to be bullish on Bitcoin . But what about when the price drops below $60k next month? Would that makes it not a disaster anymore? But maybe you are only thinking that the decline is quick if it catches up on the last minutes of this month and then it equates to continuing on the next month. Even if that is true, I still don't think that it can last a long time. As you said, Bitcoin gained 23%, therefore it did not have a negative performance over the 5 year course. In fact, Bitcoin blown up last time, saying it surpass Gold and maybe even the U.S stock market.

I am not born to be anything. I prefer to observe what happens in the real world and draw conclusions from it. 23% compounded. That's the total return for 5 years, it's like 4% a year. It's pretty shitty, especially compared to former Bitcoin returns. I'm not sure exactly what time period you're referring to. But on a positive note, I wouldn't rule out the possibility of strong growth cycles in the future, well above that 4% annual rate. What we do need to be aware of is the historical price trend and what it takes to push a market cap of $1.4 trillion higher. So better to be cautious when expecting future price rises and if reality surprises us with higher returns, the better.

I think the price you mentioned is too terrible Bro. So I pulled the Fibonacci Retracement line to gauge that possibility, I found the Price point of the $42000-$44000 range as the lowest Price of the year. Since you said it looks above $36,000, so I think the price of $42000-$44000 is still reasonable because it is above $36,000. I think to be optimistic in Crypto there must be two, namely Optimistic Uptrend and Downtrend Optimist, unlike someone who is always Optimistic of Uptrend and always echoes DCA. DCA is not always right if the Crypto is in a Long-Term Bearish state, it is better to wait and gauge the possible Lower Price limit. I am not surprised that the people who always echo the DCA are Investors or Holders. If they know the chart below, maybe they will pause to become a Holder. Because according to this global chart, the accumulation of BTC does not grow but continues to decrease, it means that globally Investors are still refraining from rushing to buy BTC. Image Source: glassnode

Bitcoin is obviously bearish in trend. But it has been rollercoaster for it in recent weeks, as it finds its path shortly above $71K and shortly below $60K. It's expected to continue to move within this range until a tangible breakout happens. And in its simplest sense, if at all it had a successful breakout, it's possibly likely going to be on the bearish path. The monthly chart's EMA50 at $65,508 has helped it recently in line with the monthly bullish candle formation. However, they look ineffective as days go by, and if the level is broken lower, Bitcoin might hit $59,835 again before deciding go lower or not.

I still have hope until next month! As long as we are above $60,000, I'm still positive. But this crucial support is kinda alarming, let's see. Since it's a weekly candle, I tend to wait longer before we decide what the future of Bitcoin will be in the long term. But what I can see now is short-term bearish, especially as we keep rejecting the $70,000 level.

What? You are still positive despite Bitcoin dropping from $126,000 and heading lower? This is a clear bearish market, my friend. What happened last week and this week should even hint you of the bearish continuation. If Bitcoin would be going up, it wouldn't have succumb to the negative close of last week. That exactly rekindled the bearish movements we are seeing, and this doesn't look like what will end soon, especially when it also closed this week negative across the traditional broker platforms. Eyes are now at the year-low of $59,835, and a successful breach below the level could send Bitcoin towards $50,000.