Bitcoin Kicking Off the New Year in Search of a New Low

There's a triangle showing up on the daily Bitcoin chart. This pattern really shows some uncertainty, hinting at both potential rises and drops in the crypto market. But if we check the on-chain stats, they tell a clearer story. Bitcoin is set to kick off the year with some new price lows. Right now, the CryptoQuant data shows that the UTXO age group (12 18 months) is at just 9.67% and that means we’ve really only just started the accumulation phase. Looking back, previous cycles indicate that true price bottoms only formed when this indicator hit around 30% to 45%. Things are looking worse due to a noticeable drop in demand from institutional investors. The Coinbase Premium Index is in the red, which suggests that US traders aren't really keen on buying BTC at these levels right now. As a result, Bitcoin’s price is taking a hit because there's just no purchasing power left with the supply being too high. Unless something changes to drive interest, it’s pretty likely we’ll see this downward trend stick around until we hit that real bottom. I covered how to accurately figure that out before.

When there are no big drivers to move the market, the market will definitely settle for a decline and a downward trend is likely to remain in the market. The downward trend of the market has been seen earlier since the market went bearish and broke below $100K. Not being able to break back above $100K has become the most reason why everyone is beginning to settle for the worse, which is the market going into a bearish phase. Bitcoin move is unpredictable but for this one, it is showing a more signs of the bearish market than a bullish one.

Bitcoin has been on a downtrend below $100k for quite a few weeks now, so saying that bitcoin will continue its downtrend movement is a norm because there's no sign of bitcoin pumping above $100k yet. I am not expecting the price of bitcoin to reach $100k again before the bears take over the market. This is the best time to keep your DCA ongoing because it's sowing time. The bull run has come to an end. Just my speculation.

Seeing this thread I quickly checked the market to know the current price of Bitcoin and supprisely bitcoin have not dip so much than it has been for the last few weeks now, alot of speculations have been on and we all know the bitcoin pattern already and how unpredictable bitcoin price could be, between that we also know that each time bitcoin make a significant correction there must be a corresponding upwards movement also. Let be straight up on this, no matter the theory or scenario that anyone could analyse, bitcoin will definitely be dine in 2026, and we also will be fine if we take the right steps to position our portfolio lowering the risk and always buying at each discounted price depending on your avaliable cash. For me, I am more positive on bitcoin in the coming year 2026 that the price will definitely be in the positive dimension that can trigger an all time high.

Yes, or just settled on a sideway patterns with no break out run. But I'm not sure about the excess supply though, there could still be demand in the market, but the thing is that there is selling pressure that's why we don't see that much of the demand on buying. Or there is buying, but it's not as big as what we expected. Sooner or later we will be entering the bearish trend and so most likely, there will be less buying. However, that's the difference between smart investors against those who don't want to stay and buy because they are afraid. Those smart investors knows that when there is blood in the street, that is the time to buy. So we should take advantage when the price of Bitcoin is declining in the next couple of months or even years and keep on stacking sats.

Most likely that's what his analysis is showing, however, we all know that there will be moments, wherein our analysis is wrong and will be invalidated. So this is still 50/50. The market can recover anytime if there will be some positive news. For me the best time to start accumulating might be at the start of next year, we might have to give the market some breather. But then if January if the market continue it's downward trend then we might be officially in the bears and so that could be a good start to do DCA the whole bear market.

Because the cycle is finished it should be like that, Bullish will not come here again with conditions like before to see the price increase above $100k, I myself really don't believe that there will be another increase, but to find a price dip at the current price level it looks like we will not fall further than $50k in the bearish season considering the price decline will not fall further -50% with the level of adoption and trust, especially since institutions have entered Bitcoin at a price above $50k which is basically what they Whether you want to hold the price or buy a lot of Bitcoin on the market, it's time for us to add Bitcoin little by little for long-term accumulation.

I am not expecting bitcoin to go down 80% from the last ATH, I think the current drop would be realistic and I think we will hit a new ATH in 2026. It means price will be recovering from here or maybe it test again the below $80k level one more time and won't go under, but somewhere between 80 and 90 would make sense if sustaining for a recovery toward a new ATH. I really do not think it will see under 30k, that would be too low and I think it's a steep fall, anything under 30 and we are talking about a 80% fall and I think that is way too much for right now. I am still confident about governments and institutions for not letting bitcoin market to go as per usual bearish conditions.

Do you see any extra bears taking over the market much later than now? I think the bears are already in control and it is the reason why we are yet to see the price going up above $100k because the buyers have failed to be in control. Personally I am not expecting much from next year, not a regular blood bath like we use to have in those bearish days because the market seems to be less volatile as the year turns by and we would not be seeing bitcoin falling off 70% like in the past again. But like you said this is the best period to accumulate bitcoin at a discount price.

Soon, it won't be a speculation anymore. Because the bulls idea to have ended is going to be a real thing and we're having some scene of it already. I don't want to see its ending but sadly, it seems that we're going to that route. If it ends by 2026, that's normal because it's said to be the bear market based on the cycles that we're entering.

Bitcoin hasn't fallen much in recent days, but there are also no signs that it start rising again soon. The overall cryptocurrency market situation remains extremely bleak. Furthermore, there are no rules or regulations stating that every time Bitcoin undergoes a sharp correction, its price will definitely be a corresponding price surge. Optimism is good, but we also need to acknowledge reality and face it. Clearly, the current situation is unfavorable, and based on market history, 2026 is predicted to be a bear market year. We should prepare for that instead of making biased predictions and clinging to them.

When there is no strong push that can drive Bitcoin to a higher price, we will see the formation of a new pattern in Bitcoin's trajectory. This downward trend will likely be a turning point in the price formation before reaching an upward trend. The downward trend increasingly presents opportunities that anyone can exploit, and this is not a bad thing, but rather the greatest opportunity we can exploit for accumulation. We are looking at the opposite direction for both positions, and it is possible that Bitcoin will break out of predictions and then recover to reach a new price formation at a stronger position. Similarly, no one can accurately predict and bitcoin is difficult to predict because it is quite speculative.

Currently Bitcoin is still in the position of $88.6k. According to speculation, currently the price of Bitcoin has fallen far from the ATH price which was $120k. A few days ago the Bitcoin chart showed a trend at $86k. Many experts say, even though the Bitcoin price has now touched 8 but that is not the end of the decline, experts speculate that there will be a continuation at the end of this year, meaning that the lowest point has not been reached, we will see this new year at least early 2026.

In the previous cycle, Bitcoin fell from $69k to $15k, a drop of about 77%, and as we all know, the more mature Bitcoin becomes, the less volatile it is. Therefore, the likelihood of Bitcoin losing 80% of its value in this bear market is very low. But to assume that bitcoin will not fall below $80k is also an overly optimistic assumption. I agree that it won't drop below $30k, but $50k-$60k is entirely possible, and that's only about a 60-50% drop. In the end, as markets become increasingly dependent on macroeconomic and political factors, the severity of a bear market will depend on the macroeconomic landscape in the coming year. Anything can happen. If the economy goes into recession, I wouldn't be surprised if it dropped to $30k.

I'm still positive we bounce in the $80k-$90k region even next year so probably it's a distribution phase. What if institutions are just making retail exhausted or they've been into stocks and metals and not yet on risk assets like cryptocurrency? It seems the macro sentiment was bearish for crypto but still hopeful and just hold than panicking.

An average Bitcoin holder who doesn't understand charts but knows about demand and supply will know that that there must be excess supply in the market making it impossible to see an uptrend as long as supply still exceed demand. This Christmas season is a time of celebration, despite the dip many investors will want to sell off part of their stash to have enough money to spend and enjoy the season. So far price is still below $100k at this time I don't see any miracle happening in the new year, I can as well say that we are already in the bear run, no much expectations about an upward trend from me.

I still predict Bitcoin could recover to $100k or more, but that would likely be a dead cat bounce, not a recovery preparing for a new bull run. To be fair, the market is very unpredictable, but I agree with your view that the bull market is over. Bitcoin has fallen more than 30% since its peak, and there are no signs that the market trend will reverse. Therefore, we need contingency plans instead of continuing to hope in vain. Personally, I planned to accumulate and build my investment portfolio before a new bull market emerged.

That is not a bounce though, if we wanted to see a good bounce then our goal is to hit $100k again. But we knows, market sentiments have shift already, there are not that much investing because if it did then the market could have recovered already. I think investors are just shifting around, from stocks to precious metals. Everything that they can get their hands on to profit. So if we talk about crypto, it's very hard to see how it can go back to it's bullish state.

You've done an extensive analysis that also aligns with my Bitcoin disposition. Kudos on that. From my monthly chart above, the blue vertical line marked the opening day of 2025, and the brown line marked the opening price of the year, which is at $104,700. It's clear that Bitcoin has performed negatively this year, judging by the opening and current price. I don't see the miracle it can do to undo that when the year has less than 5 days to end. Since Bitcoin will likely close the year "negative," even as the current price action on the monthly chart is also negative. There is a high chance of a bearish continuation in 2026. Hence, this buttresses your context of Bitcoin finding another bottom in 2026.

My bad shouldn't have been bounced but what I really mean there was the range. Yeah, a $100k is a psychological level for investors and probably it will trigger some investors to ape in too but I'll take caution as it might be a bear trap. There are lot of those bullish news but the market seems not absorbing it and most of these news are vague though for now but long term I guess it will play out especially with how US is committed now to crypto.