I came across something interesting today. Apparently, before bitcoin shot up past $110K and hit new records, it had a support level around $105K when looking at daily candles. I think there’s definitely some truth to that.
Last time, it dropped close to $107K before bouncing back to where it is now. Just one support break could’ve changed that, but it didn’t happen.
Right now, bitcoin isn’t climbing above $113K, and the resistance has dipped a bit to around $112K. We really need it to push over $114K again to start seeing those higher numbers.
Or maybe the bulls are getting tired, turning into bears as we speak. Hard to say for sure.
A random analysis by a random person from an analytics firm yields a random results. The only real answer to things like this is, maybe. It could be the case, but it also does not have to be the case. People still haven't learned that analysis does not work and is mostly fake. The markets strongly depend on the news. Even if all technical analysis showed that this week we must experience a massive crash, a single major news event could defeat all of those. Since this is easily possible, it indicates that technical analysis for crypto markets is mostly quackery.
Do you know why there is organized posting of these analysis? They open positions to make money, and then try to promote the market movement that will give them the most money. In essence, it is just manipulation of retail to get them to artificially validate ideas that were incorrect all for the sake of profit.
I'm thinking of any reason for Bitcoin to reach $104,000 this month especially now that the FED cutting down interest rates might happen a week from now, but I can't think of any TBH. Maybe some tariff-related news again from Trump that might cause the market to go down significantly?
Anyway, looking at the daily chart, it seems like there's a bit of a resistance at around the $113,500-$113,700 level which also coincides with the 38.2 FIB retracement level. I still believe that we will see a different September this time the same as last month where we saw Bitcoin ended up in a red candle where in fact, the past 3 bull run years, Bitcoin ended up in a green candle during the month of August.
Also, there's a CME Gap at around the $117,000 so we might see a resistance on that price as well, and it might be filled on the 17th of September. Who knows?
This Glassnode analysis was all over the place, but let's all agree on something.. historical data has and will always play a vital role in how price behaves and any trader knows that old highs or lows could be unmitigated and a reaction will always be expected, so for these guys to say a pullback towards $104K will likely replay the post ATH, come on glassnode..
But otherwise when it comes to having a bullrun, market naturally needs to sell before the main move going to the upwards...
Essentially, and with that level of precision. I quote from the article:
To me, believing in this level of prediction is like believing in God.
I see this part of what you're saying as more conspiratorial, and I don't believe it so much. I'm not saying it doesn't happen in specific cases, but I don't think it's widespread.
I agree with you, it is ridiculous to even attempt to make such predictions. Humans are notable bad at making future predictions, with or without analysis. At best I could accept claims regarding the overall trend but with fair disclaimers.
What makes you think that? I don't mean to say that there is a widely organized group that does it together as would be the case in a conspiracy. It is more on the individual person or entity level. This is going on regularly at lower levels of the market, so why would it not be happening at the higher levels? If you look at smaller altcoins, usually the team and insiders open massive longs shortly before a major announcement. If the announcement is good it can fuel the price rise itself, but they tend to invest in massive and exaggerated marketing campaigns to provide more fuel. If there are very bad news, they still open shorts but try to not invest as much in marketing it as it could spiral out of control and they could lose more than they gain.
The larger the asset, the harder it is to do though. You can also think about it more simply on a personal level. If an average person opens a long now, what will he most likely be talking about? How the price of Bitcoin will increase very soon and all indicators say that.
This is essentially how these types of companies make money and they do it jointly with market makers. Basically most market makers in crypto are frauds, they are making artificial charts in altcoins all the time. This does not include only smaller caps it involves most things in top 100 too.
I want to see Bitcoin ranging, ranging, ranging before we can know what direction will be the next. Analyzing quickly might bring is not good enough while price is ranging without a known direction for now. If you want to analyze the price of Bitcoin accurately, you can wait for more time before taking a conclusion. Price will sure move and I don't know where it will go whether up or down. The bear market is not here so the bull move will continue prolly.
I don't care about these little movements. These 10K or 15K movements don't seem like big movements to me. I mean, we are kind of used to seeing this type of movement. There was a time when I used to get excited seeing a little movement like 10K in a week or even a month, but things changed now. I would take a look again once Bitcoin starts to move rapidly.
I am not good at looking at the charge and digging why is this and why is that, we got some people like you who would handle this part for us , so we would rely on you and watch out the market movement. I expect Bitcoin to reach 150K at the middle of 2026.
No need to worry there are good liquidation heat spot at 115k I think bitcoin will hit that price in this week and the sentiment will be bullish again.
Liquidation heatmap has been pretty reliable for me so far.
Personally I wouldn't worry about retailer bulls, price largely moved by institutional and I think they are really bullish about it.
Right, and just like that, the price goes to $114k as I type this message. I haven't check what's the reason for the sudden spike, perhaps there are really some good news from the Trump administration that bolster the price. As far as the prediction goes though, it's been invalidated. And what others have said, although it seems that the source is somewhat has a reputation, still, we should take everything with a grain of salt. We know that it's very hard to predict, nobody has the crystal ball and all we have is to predict and then have that luck so that it will he a hit. Otherwise, it's just like throwing something in the air with this kind of prediction and hope that it will be a bull-eyes.
Currently, Bitcoin is trading at $113k, having reached a high of $114k, representing an increase from yesterday. The market is also green following Bitcoin's increase so we can feel happy for a while although the market is now on the weekend. We need to be careful because usually, the weekend can make the market go down for a moment and it will increase in the next week on Monday or Tuesday.
I watched this movement for some time so I think we may see the same thing this month. If that does not happen, we may see a new pattern in the market so we need to hold on tight.
That is definitely going to be something that will take time so it is not going to be that hard for us to keep going higher. This should not be easy way out because we can go way beyond 114k and we can go way beyond 120k as well and that is the way to go.
If we can do that, which I believe we can definitely move further and that means we just need to buy/hold so that we can do better.
I agree that the down was a bad timing and did caused us to wait out a while longer than we should but the potential to go up is still there so we are going to get the best result that we are facing at the moment.
Hence, it should not be that hard, only thing right now is keep holding and that would be the best way to get the results that you want.
Yes, but that's not a universal law. I remember some very bullish weekends as well but the majority are not positive. Now we will have to see if Bitcoin continues to rise and is able to beat the previous all-time high of $125,000 without first falling to $107,000, which would disprove the OP's theory.
The result that comes with short term speculation that's not fact based is that within a short space of time, such speculation ends up being countered by bitcoin itself because it's actually baseless. Who doesn't know that before bitcoin will get bullish that it will increase pass $114k? That's more like addressing student and telling them that some of them will be successful. That's a vague kind of statement that anyone can make.
It is just going to be a matter of time before we get pass the last all time high and create a new one and that's one thing that's certainly going to happen. Creating series of threads after any sort of market sentiment does not disanull that fact.
Everyone can give their own speculation of the market but that doesn't mean that the market will play out as speculated. However, past performance does not guarantee the future results and it is possible that bitcoin will not retrace back to $104k before we will hit a new ATH.
I am not planning on taking any profit at this time, I only intend to add more stash to my portfolio therefore, if bitcoin price dips to $104 like the article says, it's an opportunity for me to buy more bitcoin in a discount price. We are still in the bull run and the bears will have to surrender the fight.
Bitcoin could of course dip time to time, that doesn't mean we are going to see it crash. We should realize already that four year cycle is a reality and has happened every single time and every single time there were people who doubted it and eventually they turned out to be wrong. I do not agree with these people and I think four year cycle will happen just as usual and we will not have anything hurtful or downside.
Just wait for it and in October to November period we are going to face insane increases in price of bitcoin and plenty of altcoins as well. This is the period where people get stupid rich from stupid projects and we are about to enter that soon enough. We just need to make sure that all of it happens in a good way and not really have any downside.
Ever since the rate cuts odds increased all assets are rallying. Look at the stock market or Gold. But for some reason Bitcoin is lagging, Ethereum is trying to catch up also.
So unless we get some negative news, I suppose we will break the ATH soon. Same with ethereum. And many stock indicies will keep hitting new highs. Trump is really pushing for lower interest rates and the market is just buying assets like crazy. There are reports already of 3 rate cuts till end of year and another 3 rate cuts next year.
However we have been wrong before. Powell is very hesitant because he doesnt want inflation to come back. But I am pretty sure we will get at least 1 rate cut sometime this year.
Powell has been hesitant and hawkish over the past year due to lackluster economic data, persistently high inflation and the potential impact of the trade war. But I think this time he will not hesitate or continue to pursue a tough stance as recent economic indicators such as PPI and CPI show positive changes. So a rate cut is inevitable but how many rate cuts will there be and when they will officially start quantitative easing, pumping money into the economy. It will all depend on the health of the economy.
I think Bitcoin price will be pumping again because we can see that the market has gone from a very low to a very high. Currently, I can see that the markets have transformed into green candles and entered a great high where Bitcoin price has entered $116k which is really great. Many thought that Bitcoin price might dump more this month but it has come back again which will help the market to go higher. Since we have lost $140,000 now, we definitely have a plan to go higher in the coming days. Looking at the current market position, we can definitely determine that the market will move a little higher in the coming days.
Many were not optimistic because the market was still gloomy at the beginning of the month, and the reason was said to be due to whales selling large amounts of bitcoin. The market has only really become more optimistic in the past few days following positive economic indicators and expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates this month. So it's no surprise that people are starting to become optimistic again.
With the Fed almost certain to cut interest rates next week, we can be sure that the market will move higher in the coming days. But I don't rule out the possibility that "sell the news" could also happen after the rate cut announcement is made.