Bitcoin's 4-year cycle still around, brace for a 70% dip next time: VC

You can tell from the title that the bitcoin bear market is still a thing, according to Vineet Budki, the CEO of Sigma Capital. I get where he’s coming from, but I just can’t see bitcoin dropping by 70% again. Maybe that’s just some sensational news since they mentioned a $70k figure. It’s funny how some folks claim the 4-year cycle is dead while others insist it’s very much alive. That’s just how people are. And in short-term bitcoin price talks, you’ve got some saying A and others shouting Z. It’s a real mind-bender. But hey, one thing’s for sure: all time highs are still a thing.

I wish I gambled but I believe you are wrong and that the 4 year cycle is already gone in fact one could argue it ended this month

For your mental health, quite following those confused Bitcoin market analysts because in the end you see that most of what their say never come to pass or even have much realities on the market entirely, this makes most of their speculations false kind of and we must admit that facts,I advice you take a brake from them and focus more on the reality and how to position your self,  don't jump in or out of the crypto market because of temporary market trends, just because Bitcoin dropped significantly from it all time high price with in a short time doesn't mean the 4 years cycle is over that is just an assumption.

I also don't expect an exaggeration that we have gone bear market because I am still open optimistic that the market price will rise to the extents of new Ath this year. Maybe some kinda analysts think they can just come up speculating unreliable predictions about bitcoin price and because they are either institutions or individual influencers many enthusiasts will want to believe their predictions. I am looking out to who to bet with that says bitcoin price can be predictable while my decision will be that it can not be predicted. Bear market is also one event we can't change or predictable of when it will take over the bull market. So we should always expect the unexpected as long volatilities is unpredictable.

OP: Putting emotions aside, the question isn't whether the bull market cycle has ended—it's what data exists to confirm or refute that idea. The good news is, the evidence is readily available. We've covered this topic in our local forum, but you can also refer to this table (pic). Just do the math yourself; you don't need to flip a coin or rely on gut feelings. The answer is right there: Source: Outlier Ventures

It's not yet over IMO. But we have to prepare for the huge drops once this year ends. The 4-year cycle is still there and we've got still some months to draw before it finally ends. Maybe the two months waiting for this year end will show us some good returns. Because one thing that is for sure in the actions of Bitcoin is that it's always been unpredictable. We'll see how it will go.

If it rose by over 7.8 times (780%) in the bull run in this cycle, then it can surely drop by 70% without any problem in the next bear market, as it has happened before. I don't think it's something that can happen overnight, but a slow and steady downtrend over time would eventually lead to that. The bull market hasn't "officially" ended, so the 4-year cycle could still at very much at play

I don't believe pessimists. Had I believed them, that person on the sideline watching people's portfolio grow would be me and I would become a bitter man. Bitcoin fundamental is stronger than ever, even if there's a draw down it won't be that much, possibly $80k is the bottom for next bearish cycle and goes up again IF the 4 year cycle still exist which I don't believe it is.

Each of us is free to speculate about the price of Bitcoin, as are influencers, the media, and important people who hold Bitcoin. Personally, i don't pay too much attention to it. We all know that bullish and bearish phases always come and go, and that happens in every cycle, so I'm not too surprised because everyone has been speculating since long ago, and many have even said bad things about Bitcoin. Honestly, don't pay too much attention to that kind of talk, just listen to the positive things that can help you feel more motivated to accumulate Bitcoin. The data speaks for itself, Bitcoin continues to set new all time highs in every cycle, even though prices dropped significantly, like at the end of 2022 when prices briefly hit the $16k level. but as we can see now, the price has risen above $120k. If you calculate it, the profit you’ve already made is over $100k, and those who were afraid to buy have missed out on that opportunity.Prices will continue to rise, and any decline becomes meaningless if your focus is on the long term.

But you have to be honest I think you are also confused by the current situation whether the market is over or not? the bitcoin cycle has disappeared or not all these questions have no definite answer at this time, because the cycle calculation has not ended completely, so to conclude by waiting for the time until it is completely over this year, whether it changes or not, or maybe Bitcoin flies in December, and confirms the end of the season quickly. Until now I have reduced my position or ownership of Bitcoin and altcoins that I have, rather than maintaining in an uncertain situation, leaving a little for a small hope that could happen.

Bitcoin has always had fractal price action and there have always been people who have said it is different this time. I personally won’t be surprised when we are at $60K next Halloween and don’t think anyone else should be either. The four year cycle isn’t going anywhere. Ignore it at your own peril.

Next time bitcoin crashes that much won’t be much different than the last time that happened during the covid19 crash in early 2020. If you recall that crash, the world was going to hell according to the media. It didn’t make any sense to have money in the markets as people thought “what good is it to have money in a brokerage account if I’ll starve to death” and that’s why they started to cash out massively and all the leverage in the markets was gone in seconds. So the point is, unless something bigger than covid19 happens next time that fuels people’s anxiety, we won’t see a big crash like that. I’d rather expect something between 30% and 50%.

I actually wouldnt be surprised either. I have been around long enough like others to know that the market can do the complete opposite to what some people expect. Listening to others calling an end to the 4 year cycle or even advocating for it is senseless - how do they know? any analysis of the market can support either idea. I'm thinking - expect it when you see it!

I don't think that I am confused with how I see it. If it's over then it should have been below $100k I think. And maybe it is you that probably have been confused. Because you've said that the cycle has disappeared and yet you've said that it's not ended completely. That's fine. If that's the best for your positions and what you think of the market, that's okay as long as you've done your part and you've probably took profits already.

People are speculating that bitcoin won't be continuing the 4 year cycle because of how many institutions have now expressed interest in bitcoin and holding bitcoin. Now people think bitcoin won't be experiencing any decline in the next four years but I think they are in for a ride. A lot of people might start selling off once they see even the slightest dip because they have been expecting bitcoin to no longer experience the bear cycle. Bitcoin is a speculative asset. No one can predict exactly what will happen today or tomorrow with regards of bitcoin. The best we can do is analyze and make our own predictions.

It depends. Because if the bull season isn't over and Bitcoin could hit $150k or more before the bear season arrives. If the price drops below $80,000 as you expect, it will mean a drop of more than 50% and that is no small drop. Also, it depends on the market situation at that time. I mean every bear season is tied to some event, like the 2022 bear market was due to the collapse of FTX, Luna, Russia-Ukraine war. Meanwhile, we don't know what will happen in the upcoming bear market, so it would be quite subjective to assume the bear market won't be severe or that Bitcoin's drop won't be too big.

50% drop though is huge, so if we are still in the bull run, then I don't think that we will see that drop. There are still a lot of money in the market, or with investors, they are just like wanting to see how things are going again before putting back their money. That's always been the case here, even in bear market, we will see occasional rise and then everyone taking profit. So yeah, it might not be the end of the bull run, it's just we are seeing that it's just taking a breather. And now that we are at the start of a new month, we should be positive that it will go well and still see the price going to a new all time high.

Yes, I can be very wrong. Let us see how 2026 would be which will be used to determine if the 4 year cycle is over. I still think it is too early for us to think that bear market will not occur, but I might be wrong.

I don't believe the 4-year cycle is dead, but I also don't believe bitcoin will have a 70% drop. Unless something out of the ordinary, something that will shake the whole financial market, happens, Bitcoin won't drop by 70%. A 70% drop in bitcoin means about $30-$40k, which is not something I see happening right now. I believe the lowest Bitcoin can get to is $60k. I have a theory that Bitcoin won't even go lower than the previous long-standing ATH of $69k. Of course, all these is based on the assumption that damaging events don't happen. Another thing I disagree with was what he said I the article. I don't believe this at all. It would even be more difficult for me to believe this if I believed his prediction of a 70% dip. Bitcoin at the current price won't get up to $1 million within the next 10 years, in my opinion. Bitcoin grows at a slower rate now.  It can get to over $500k, but I don't think it will get to $1 million.

Yes, we understand that the world is now very different, someone who has a lot of money and is also respected in his field of business, of course whatever speculation that person puts out, many people believe in it, There's nothing wrong with someone speculating that Bitcoin prices could fall by up to 70%, that's their right, of course they have reasons to say that, as Vineet Budki said. Maybe some of us here are tired of speculation, what's more, it's done by those who have companies and a lot of money, not the Bitcoin experts themselves, The point is that many people hope that Bitcoin will fall further in the next two years, so that crypto users can take advantage of this opportunity to reinvest. There is no harm in this speculation, for those who believe.