Bitcoin's Current Status and Future Expectations

Bitcoin's currently sitting over $20,000 down from its all-time high of $109,000. In just the past day, over $110 billion has exited the crypto market. Maybe I shouldn’t be surprised that this drop followed Microstrategy's recent purchase of about $2 billion, which sent the price crashing down to $88,000. Or maybe it’s just the usual ebb and flow of supply and demand. Honestly, I don’t see any major economic events that could explain this recent market dip. As we all know by now, this doesn’t seem to tie back to any economic happenings, political stuff, or breaking news. The market just nosedives, and if you look closely, it feels like there’s some resistance around $95,000. The price hasn’t bounced back to where it was but is instead hovering below $90,000, landing at that $88,000 mark. What’s your take on this? 1. Just a fake-out reaction from the market. 2. A bearish trend that might turn bullish eventually. 3. The slow emergence of a bear market. 4. Typical market volatility driven by supply and demand. 5. Simply a correction aiming for stability in the $80,000 to $90,000 range.

lets clarify firstly there is no market cap of real $$ held in reserve.. so $110b didnt leave the market bitcoins market cap is not some reserve holding $$.. its just a math calculation of current price of ONE BTC multiplied by coins on blockchain. its a statistic of numbers, not a reserve amount secondly the drop was due to bybit hack where hackers+launderers are shifting hacked altcoins to BTC and then selling BTC as part of laundering i explained: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5533259.msg65103752#msg65103752 thirdly for the rest of us. the true ATH of 2025 is yet to happen the current high of $109k is just a temporary wiggle on the grand scheme of the market the drop to $88k is a good discount opportunity to buy before the rise to the true ATH guessed at happening in autumn/winter 2025 which will be much higher than $1XXk

Have you read this thread: Are you enjoying Trump? https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/canada-mexico-step-up-fentanyl-border-talks-this-week-avoid-trumps-tariffs-2025-02-24/ Other causes I saw about it from the news are: Massive crypto market liquidations. Persistent exchange-traded fund (ETF) outflows. Bearish technical signals.

Quite impressive with information on this, you make it more clear and explanatory. I heard about the hack, but since my thought was that nont everyone was then affected by the scam, I don't count it a significant one to have made effect on the market price like this as we already have. I also sensed the same in this direction, it may be a good entry point for someone to take advantage in buying the dip and hodl for the massive bull ahead that will land us to the last TH for this bullrun season. Thanks for the clarifications.

most peoples coins(of the ~19.8m supply thus far) on the blockchain do not affect the market either, because most are not even deposited on the markets, heck even if we say ~2m coins are deposited into exchanges https://www.coinglass.com/Balance even those dont affect the market price its only actually a small % of users that are performing orders with actual orders on the markets orderbooks affecting the price and so when their orders are being affected by an even smaller group laundering the hack, the other innocent group of market exchange users do react. yep the market price swings not due to the 19.8m coins in circulation, but many small 0.xbtc amounts on the order lines near the buy/sell spread it doesnt take 19.8m coins to shift a price significantly. it doesnt even take 1m coins to shift the price, if you check out the market volumes of the 24th-25th it only needed 17k on the 24th and 46k btc on the 25th being traded https://data.bitcoinity.org/markets/volume/30d?c=e&t=b and that amount was not all direct victims funds shifting in the launder process, infact due to 750btc worth of funds exchanged due to launder on eXch. some users moved reserves via stable coins to then cause other exchanges to shift downwards as a synchronisation of the public markets to stay inline with each others price even some people on the eth side seeing their eth:usd crash, which happen on small exchange like so they move to eth:btc then btc:usd to escape it quick and move out of eXch, which caused the btc:usd to crash even on non launder related exchanges yep it wasnt just hack launderers using btc as a bypass to get to usd without just selling eth for usd direct. it was other innocent users trying to get USD(stablecoin) quick to get out of the eXch exchange due to fear that the eXch exchange might stall/halt/close the market due to sudden price drama some even took advantage by arbitraging the markets due to the fast pace of the market after a dull week, by doing eth:btc -> btc:usd -> usd:eth and repeat eth:btc ->..repeat.. repeat, and doing it across multiple exchanges to take a quick advantage of the price differences between exchanges, which further caused negative price action for btc:usd even for holders of coin unrelated to the hack, initial laundering process on one exchange so in essence that 46k volume on the 25th is not one user with a 46k hoard doing a launder of seling one lump.. but a bunch of people with 0.xbtc being hit and then spinning around the market pairs in arbitrage maybe 10-50 times.. so, in essence the market price could dip by $5k->$10k using just 200btc-4k of btc spread over multiple users.. which isnt much when you think of it yep 200btc-4kbtc could change the market price which then when doing paper math causes the market cap to appear to have shifted down by $110billions welcome to the economics of the btc market

Trump's tariff wars, recent hacks (including Bybit), scams regarding big people, and so on - every domino fell where it needed to to create what we see today. But 2025 is not over yet, not at all. So let's just live through this together

What i do think? 2. Bearish pattern to result into bullish trend in disguise. On my own personal point of view then i would definitely be having this kind of own view basing up on previous cycles then there's always that last dip before we would really be able to break up new all time highs and this have happened in the past on which this might be the thing on which it is really that happening now. The only main question on this one is on how low it would be able to reach out? Expect the unexpected as always as this market is never been that predictable in the first place and thats why always set your expectations low so that whenever these kind of price declines do happen these kind of unexpected events because it will really be just that making you disappointed if you are really just that being positive but ending up the market do goes opposite on what you have anticipated. Just go with the flow and never make yourself that be forceful for whatever entry or exits that you would be making whenever the price do able to hit up a particular level. It all matters on how you would be driving yourself with this volatile market.

Accumulate more, wait for the eventual whiplash of going back to 100k and more, and see the breakout, that's what I am waiting on, at least. Surely we may wait for a while for this to happen, but it will.

Market just looking for a reason to go below $90K. It is long overdue and tariff war was an attractive reason. People are selling the rumor. I expect buying of the news soon. Imagine Bitcoin at $83K, now that's cheap. I'm not ruling out the fact that more dip may come but We are not fixated your short term price movements. I think march would be better and feb may be our worse month in 2025. I said may not will.

If we look back and forth and comparing it with the current state I think we are in the demand and supply preference under market volatility meanwhile there's a noticeable bearish patterns and we tend not to ignore that so I believe we should be expecting a bearish season ik no time that will definitely lead to a bullish cycle that's what i see and expect.So we should be expecting a bullish season in no time.

It went as low as $78,000 if I'm not mistaken, so that alone is a sign of a bearish market. But then again, no one can resist to buy at that price, and so we have a big recovery to $85,000 so that is a huge pump already and it could be that the bulls have regain the market. But still very unstable, and yeah, the Bybit hack + the newly impose tariffs could have affected the market and really tested it lows for this year. So maybe the number 5 is currently the pattern here, as we might see the price on a sideways along the $80,000 to $90,000. Unless there is a new break out to reach 6 digits again. But it will take a lot of money from institutions again as I think they are the main driver that push it to $85,000.

It was not significant since it was a shitcoin exchange that got hacked and the hacker had stolen a shitcoin (ethereum to be exact). But it became significant because first the hacker started converting that shitcoin to bitcoin and the media went crazy with the story creating  "panic" in the market. Then there is panic sell and when panic sell starts it can gain momentum and cause a bigger crash. Hence the $78k bottom. Unless another silly thing happens, this panic sell will over soon and after a little bit we can go back up and try $100k+ again. Yesterday was a green candle, so it is a positive signal. If this momentum continues a couple of more days we can say that the weak hands are done panicking.

isn't  an hack of an exchange ETH overrated to cause such dip? If this was it panic selling wouldn't have caused such dip I think it's the trade war looming around As can be seen that the drop wasn't just on cryptocurrency but through most of the markets.

The hack of an exchange is over hyped to cause a dip, but that depends on the amount which was hacked, the exchange in question might be a shitcoin exchange which the hacker also made away with what the exchange is trading, but what happens to those shitcoins which was stolen? They are being converted to our might bitcoin and later converted back to what ever coin which the hacker want to use and launder or clean their shit out, the drop is not only as a result of the fear the hack caused on the shitcoin exchange users but its also associated with the selling off those bitcoin which the hacker will be selling off too, at least this is how I understand the market.

Same view, the bybit hack and over $1.5 billion ETH stolen is the biggest hack in the crypto industry to date. That has had a negative impact on the market but I don't think that's the main reason for the recent decline, the trade war and economic uncertainty are the bigger reasons. You are right, if people were paying attention they would see that the stock market over the past few days has not performed any better than crypto. And I predict that the market will soon experience another decline when Trump's tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China officially take effect on March 4. But I don't think there will be a big drop because the market reacted to this news when Trump reiterated tariff plans last week. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live/stock-market-today-nasdaq-sp-500-sell-off-as-nvidia-sinks-8-trump-reiterates-tariff-plans-143102387.html

With the recent Bybit hack then the market didnt make out some direct or immediate result or effect on which the price didnt drop but a few weeks later then it do make out some significant drop on which we cant really be totally be able to tell that this is actually the main reason on such dip because usually not all sentiments and news will really be making out some immediate effect into the market whether it will really be that negative or positive. It will really be that totally random since we do know that this market isnt really that always been reactive when it comes to these kind of sentiments. So there's no one will really be able to tell on what actually happened with the recent drop that we've seen.  Speaking about expectations then its always been best that you should expect the unexpected because the market is always been unpredictable and there's no way that we can be able to predict on what would happen in the future. This is why setting up plan B's will be that recommended because there's no way that we can be able to handle out if ever this one happens.

Exchange hacks can actually cause fear depending on the situation of the hack, not to praise Bybit here but they tried to minimize that fear by actually allowing withdrawals by borrowing funds from other exchanges to cover for it and that’s why the market didn’t react to the hack (this doesn’t mean you should trust them). This dip had nothing to actually do with the hack because the market was already facing a correction before the hack and it continued that way. What later escalated the dip can actually be attributed to the economic crisis around the world most especially in nations like the US where trump had confirmed his intention of increasing tariffs on some countries and when news like this comes out, most investors go for reductions in size of assets and most at times it is the volatile ones that get reduced, this to me was the major reason causing the dip

I have believed that it is a correction for it to have a better support and here we go, some Trumpish tweets again that we're getting and the market head back to $90kish once again. The expectation has been like this that there is a need for Bitcoin to correct once again before we top back to $109k and move along with another ATH. That's how typically it is for us to see this bull run to make the most of it.

I do think we will see the dip after this pump soon enough. It's not a healthy price increase, it's a manipulation, and if it won't be backed up - we will return back.

Or we have already seen the dip and this pump is the one that we're waiting for and to confirm that we're about to breakout once again. I have to agree with you about this one. But that's the recovery that we're waiting for after a week of pure corrections. The manipulation is indeed there and we all knew who controlled it and that's no other than Trump.