Bitcoin super cycle is ready to take off

The start of 2025 has been slow, but there’s a fresh wave of optimism. We could be witnessing the onset of another bull run, sparking excitement among Bitcoin fans and analysts. Some are wondering if we’re on the verge of a bull market like the one in 2017. Analysts are looking at factors like how investors behave and their long-term holding patterns to gauge the chances of a significant surge in Bitcoin’s price. Let’s compare the upcoming 2025 bull run with previous ones. So, the recent spike in Bitcoin prices has altered our expectations. When we check out the Bitcoin growth chart, the movements are starting to resemble the 2016-2017 super cycle. Let’s break down two key factors: investor behavior and long-term holding. **Investor Behavior** To understand how crypto investors act and think, we use MVRV_Z. This metric shows the market value in relation to the realized value. If MVRV_Z is high, it indicates Bitcoin might be overvalued, while a low MVRV_Z suggests it’s undervalued. This method reveals the total value since the last time Bitcoin changed hands. By examining investor behavior during the last super cycle in 2016-2017, we can apply a two-year MVRV_Z rolling metric. This gives us a clearer view of recent trends since it reflects the price changes of Bitcoin and investor behavior over time. If you look closely, there’s a strong connection with the 2020-2021 super cycle, which had a double peak.

Nice charts, it's just showing, we still have more room for pumps and new all-time highs! Even a lot of people are speculating we can jump fast to $200,000 once we break the $150,000 level, which I agree with. As what happened before $70,000 to $100,000 real quick.

This is so it, the time is now! I can feel this and that the times are changing. There is a crazy global shift happening right now into bitcoin and it's unreal. I just wish more folks who hadn't had any would have got in earlier. You buy bitcoin at the price you deserve! That's basically what it comes down to.

A super cycle is more properly used for a long Bitcoin market history since its first market cycle till this one but I don't think in a single market cycle, it's appropriately enough to use the term super cycle. You can call it like a next bull run of this market cycle, that's it. Nothing more than a bull run, or you also can call it as a parabolic bull run, but I really disagree if you use a term super cycle. You can use another chart: Compare bull markets. https://charts.bitbo.io/compare-bull-markets/

I'm not so sure about it anymore. One thing we've learned in the past couple of years, specifically after the COVID19 pandemic, is that global economic uncertainty and recession has a significantly negative effect on bitcoin price. Today we are in the most destabilized and uncertain global economic conditions in decades. With growing tensions and the wars (economic or otherwise) that the US regime has been starting, things will only become more destabilized and uncertain. In such conditions, chances of seeing a major bitcoin bull run are smaller. Most possible trends in my opinion, are smaller rises and smaller bull runs (eg. reaching $200k). Not anything major like we had in 2017 for instance (ie. reaching $1 mil).

For sure the economic and govt instability/chaos/madness of the US starting in 2025 is not good for Bitcoin. Investors like stability. Anyway I think it seems clear the old 4 year market cycle is over now anyway. Long gone are the days of 2013/2017 bull runs. After 2017 when most people found out about Bitcoin, and then watched it crash in 2018, the average person is now too scared to jump into Bitcoin when it goes up. The "but it always crashes" mentality is there. Anytime I talk to someone about Bitcoin post-2018 they say either "it always crashes" or "it's too late I missed it". So there's no more giant bull runs with blow off tops where millions of people are flooding into Bitcoin all at once. Now for people to get into Bitcoin it is generally going to be because they each individually finally did their research. It's a much more gradual process of people educating themselves, rather than a flood of new people chasing hyped up quick gains. But that's for retail. Obviously institutional players, still quite new to Bitcoin, are the ones driving the growth. I think, as long as the lunacy in the US doesn't lead to a global depression, we should generally see annual growth in Bitcoin now, instead of the boom/bust 4 year cycle. Plenty of volatility, dips and pumps and sideways and whatnot, but no giant year bull market. Like you say, smaller rises and smaller bull runs. Like we've already seen the past few years. $15k -> $30k then stall for a while, then to $35k then stall, then to $40k's and stall for a bit, then the ETF launch brought it to $70k+ then stall for a while, then hype around US bitcoin reserve brought it $100k+ but then that hope dimmed for at least the time being combined with the new US admin economic chaos so it's stalled again now. I expect this sort of dynamic to continue in the coming years. Gradually going up in this fashion. So yeah rather than a super cycle, I think it is better described as simply no more boom/bust 4 year cycle now. Smaller ups and downs on something closer to a half-year timeline. With Bitcoin moving up a leg once or twice a year in general, either from big institutional adoption events or simply when resistance breaks after months of sideways. I could see $200k being reached maybe in 2027 if the global economy survives the politics going on right now, after 3 or 4 more of these once-every-six-months-or-so pumps. Of course major institutional adoption events could speed up or enlarge these pumps. Like say is US actually passes that 1M bitcoin reserve bill (or if several other nations announce bitcoin reserves), or if one of them trillion dollar companies announces they are switching to a bitcoin treasury, or something like that. Hyperbitcoinization, or the "gradually then suddenly" idea, is a myth people tell themselves to get excited. We're looking at a couple decades of gradual growth to a mature and normalized market as local/regional/national govts adopt Bitcoin reserves, companies adopt bitcoin treasuries, and TradFi investors adopt Bitcoin through ETFs, while the general public slowly educates itself and starts saving in Bitcoin, growing the general public adoption a few percent each year. No more miracle years, and not likely to be any sort of massive super cycle. Just gradual adoption as Bitcoin is out of its early years and now has the long probably couple decade slog of going from new player in finance to respected mature asset.

Some just believe in it happening, but clearly, as for now, everything follows what we've already seen - and uncertainty is still there, lurking, just not showing its head off as of now.

The bull run started in earnest with the approval of Bitcoin ETF. And there were so many expectations that more businesses would invest in Bitcoin. The hype about a politician becoming a Bitcoin president made the price get to $100k and above. I expected to see a continuous increase in price this year until Trump's tariff war started. With more institutional investors and the government's interest in Bitcoin, the market will remain unpredictable. But $150k and above is a fair prediction because I am not seeing a price explosion.

Everything is going to be good in the long run, because these tariffs and stuff like that are not a long-term effect on the market - especially when they are resolved eventually, but they clearly affect the market short / mid term.

Well, I do agree this new 100k push is resetting expectations but I really doubt strongly that anyone of us actually believes there's another supercycle. Yesterday someone talked about a x10 Market Cap gain, that's exactly what is needed to realize this supercycle (but x10 rather than x20++ in 2017). Are we all back to predicting nonsense numbers again Because if we are then we might as well just add a zero or two behind.

And as far as I understand, this so called super-cycle had like two big push in one bull run. And that hasn't happen, at least that's what I'm seeing. So for me, I will dismissed the thoughts of super-cycle. We will have a big bull run and that's it, we can't call it as super-cycle as this is what we have seen 'normally' every four years. Of course, we are now in the 6 digits figure and that is good enough as has been expected in the last bull run. Of course long term HODLer=max profits in every cycle.

The defining feature of a super bull cycle is the sustained and long-term growth of Bitcoin, which repeatedly breaks unimaginable ATHs and outperforms previous bull cycles. But to date, Bitcoin is only up more than 6x from its low of $15k (2002 bear season), and if the highest ATH Bitcoin would reach is $150k before the bear season comes. This cannot be called a super cycle, but just a normal bull cycle. I also expected a super cycle but I abandoned this idea after what happened in the market. The market is being manipulated by politicians, it is too dependent on macro news...so I no longer believe this is a super cycle.

There are still a lot of factors though to consider if indeed we are in a super cycle or not. But I do agree with your definition, if we have a sustained growth after this year and the price continue to spike even if we are in the so called bear market then we can define it as supercycle. Otherwise this is just a school of thought that I don't know who started this whole thing. We're very much at a 4 year cycle and so far we haven't seen it been broken by the market. The halving is still the catalyst and I don't think that it will be broken any time.

I agree that this is just a point of view that could be right or wrong. It's worth considering, but it's wrong to consider it as a market law. However as for the market catalyst, it's not just the halving  there's also the ETF approval and Trump's victory. Yes, the halving is the primary catalyst, but we cannot deny the importance of other factors. Also, if the Strategic Reserve Plan is approved in the United States and some other countries, this will be a new catalyst that could last for a long time.

No, I don't consider it as a catalyst, for me the definition of a catalyst is that it will be there in every cycle. So for this cycle we have the ETF approval and then Trump winning the election. But how about in the next cycle? The only consistent catalyst that we have is still the Bitcoin halving. That's why I don't believed in this so called supercycle as everything changes an nothing is constant except for the halving. Maybe in the next cycle we will have a new trend or news that will FOMO again, but it's going to be very different in every cycle that we have.

We can only hope it will really happen after all its people like us who will benefit this supercycle. I don't remember 2017 being a super cycle though, when they say supercycle I think they mean the market just surges without the need of halving so if ever it does shoots up from this year up to the next halving then maybe it will really be a big as what we hope. But the circulating supply must have been diminished a lot because the institutions and countries buying BTC for their strategic reserves.

Institutions and countries buying bitcoin can be seen as a positive signal as it not only reduces the circulating supply but also encourages more people to enter the market. But I'm also wary of that because they're also investing and the goal is profit, not trying to drive growth and think about the future of the market. They can also sell at any time if they feel satisfied with the profit they have made. They can be the catalyst that triggers a super cycle, but they can also be the trigger that causes a market crash. Playing with them is like playing with a double-edged sword, so don't take them as a reliable signal to speculate more on bitcoin or consider them as the heroes.

In the early hours of yesterday, the price of bitcoin skyrocketed to $107k but about 6 hours later, i heard that about $675 million was liquidated from the crypto market which made the price to fall down to $102k but later on it still moved to $105k and early this morning it reached $106k before falling back to $104k that it is now so the tendency for the price to fall and recover quickly within a short interval of time is to show that the bitcoin super cycle is here where the market will remain bullish for a very long period of time. I don't think the market will make any deceptive move even though there may still be changes but i don't think it will cause a heavy downtrend hence, a super cycle is underway and $150k can be reached this year and even above before the end of this cycle.

We "will" be, we still have time, we will know for sure if we are going to have a full bull run by the end of the year and if we do not peak above 120k then it was never meant to be, but if we do, and even go towards like 150k, then yeah we are going to say it was a huge bull run. That is going to get a great result for us and we can make a lot of money with it as well. That is the most obvious way to move forward, that is what we want to see how it could get a great result. Holding and accumulating during this period, even at 100k, is a smart move because if we are right and we reach a bull run, you could make somewhere between 20% to 50% in the upcoming six months, nothing else could make you this kind of return in normal cases in any other asset.

Expecting bitcoin to hit its new ATH throughout this year is a very realistic target. I'm not sure about the exact number, but the expected price range would certainly be higher above $150k. Regardless of whether this price is reached or not, it still feels good to accumulate bitcoin at this time. Its price volatility will still provide commensurate returns, not to mention if there is a lot of growing interest from institutions or large investors. I'm confident about the new ATH, but then again we never know the exact price. It's not a big deal if we can only make a 10% to 20% return during the year, but many people expect to get a 50% to 80% return. Accumulation is still a great approach for long-term investing, so I don't think we should have any doubts about the future.