Bitcoin’s Surge Made on Thin Air, Now Facing the Consequences

Bitcoin’s been on a downward trend for five sessions straight. Analysts are throwing around all sorts of theories about why it couldn’t hit $90K after it broke above $80K with seemingly no resistance on the charts. But looking at the chart raises a different question: how did Bitcoin even go up in the first place? Trading volume in the spot market has been dropping since February. In Q1, daily trading went from $44B to $10B, which made sense since BTC was stuck in a range. But even during the price surge in April-May, that volume fell by another 22%. This kind of disconnect between volume and price trend is actually known in trading circles and VSA theory as market manipulation. While Bitcoin isn’t the typical target for a classic pump-and-dump, the chart is kinda hinting at something similar. It's doubtful that anyone was intentionally pushing Bitcoin's price up. What likely happened is that throughout the lengthy consolidation phase, big money shifted into BTC futures. Now, derivatives trading is five times more than spot. The risk with derivatives is that traders can clearly see where the stop-losses are bunched up. Back in April, a lot of traders were short, which sparked that squeeze-driven rally. Now, market makers and speculators have gone after the stop-losses of the bulls, causing the market to drop as those positions get liquidated. Bitcoin will probably stabilize somewhere around the $73K-$74K range, which was the old top of the consolidation area where the rise started.

What do to mean as real volume? This is not something new in crypto. I can remember someone posted about this scenario: If you want buying in a way that more people will not sell than buying, that can exist more during bull market, especially long period of time bull market. I have posted that this is not bull run or altseason that some people are thinking. I have seen this pattern before in the paste.

Of course, this isn't any bull run..price is not yet ready because when we are in a bull run,it's very much easy to recognise. The only problem now is that price has been behaving a bit awkward. It buys a little then drops down with more pressure from the sell side. In march we could conclude alot that the sellers were still very much active since the volume of sellers were pretty high in the market. In April it changed hands and the buyers seems to have taken a grip of the market. But since we broke the resistance at $80k price has been falling slowly making it more difficult to tell where it's heading next. I agree with op on this, what actually was the reason behind the rally in April? It's all speculations though, who knows...

It's very easy, we are in year 1 of the bear market, so whatever higher highs we see, it's might be just a bull run as we are going to be in the consolidation phase in the next month or so. It's just good that we see the price going as high as $80k, but it's not going to be sustainable in a bear market. And as you have said, the price has going down since hitting that barrier of $80k'ish. It's because that price is too tempting for speculators not to sell and make profit. So expect that the price will go on a decline and then consolidation phase throughout the year.

If your doing technical analysis conserning Bitcoin, also realise that this is a market that creates and sweeps liquidity, just like Gold, NQ, etc. Presently the market is more completed to analyse technically, unlike before where it rally from some levels (Fibonacci levels, support, trend line etc), now it can make an initial push from those levels to induce buyers the it can later come back and go lower just to take out liquidity, So don't always expect market to make rally after rejecting to so called strong zones or levels wait for those levels to be taken out first.

For me based on the what I see the chart. Clearly on daily tf, double top happened at two occasions. First occasion was at $75703.663 and it failed. Then it happened at $81683.297 and it held. Tanking down with momentum. But if you look at the candlesticks closely, you will quickly observe it slowing down. For me, I think it will likely bounce upward from $75703.663. If not, it will tank down back to $58738.652.

Indeed the recent rally experienced by Bitcoin was not supported by volume and by traditional technical analysis, it meant that the move was not going to be sustained. Such moves always happens but sometimes it does fail because volume can be injected into the market at any time with a single major news, that way the move will continue. Since there were no such news, we could see the drop in price and that may linger until the end of this month.

still up from 60k so 76/60=1.267 and that means it is up 26.7percent from the low. still a baby bull. now it could be heading to the slaughter house and drop low enough that calling a bbay bull is wrong. but up 26.7% from the low = baby bull will it die a calf and we eat veal I do not know. will it grow strong and big over 130k this year i don’t know. but I know this much the op does not know anymore than any of us. also this is kind of like the 2019 rally. which means we may get to about 92-94k then crash back. or we can do something new. which would be stay in a baby bull slot like 72k to 82 k for six or more months.

Currently market is really hard to speculate and predict what it would likely happened in the next few years and don’t be surprised that the current situation of the market could actually drop lower because there are people who could be that wanting to have such opportunity to enable them refill their bags.  Those who invested when the market was around 62k they are taking much profits from their investments which resulting to a strong decline in the market but whenever it breaks out then expect it to hit 90k. In summary you should be able to know that the market is always volatile that is why it’s advisable to use spare cash to make investments without much panicking.

In the area converge, we are still dangling around the Speculation that volatility can be unpredictable and market movement too acting as if it is following a traditional format in reference to past performance is still not worth predictable because, buying and selling pressures are likely to set the market into confusion and that is why it seems like it moment of the Bitcoin market price has it terms of analysis Speculating what could be responsible for all the events. As it stands currently, it is convince able that the selling pressures has more influence on the forces driving the market than the buying which is why we are experiencing more price declines even while the market struggles to recover during the institutions aggressive buying consecutively. Moreover, this season based on historical performance should be bear season. So expecting price pump like we are in the bull could be impossible because the Bitcoin market is actually trying to keep to its 4 four years cycle standards.

We should always check the daily trading volumes on the exchange. If they are increasing, it means the current trend is real. Otherwise, any price movement without volume is just someone's deliberate speculation, which will end with a strong move in the opposite direction

It was clear that we would not reach higher because of the lack of buyer potential, and I understand that you could make buyers be more excited about the potential but it is not looking like that's happening neither. EMA is obvious and BB is obvious, there is no evident way that we are going to make a lot of money. We gotta reach a place where it is going to be defensive for us, so be sure that you have your stop loss ready if it goes a lot more, like if it goes under 70k then it snot looking great, I would say that if you see it going under 70k, then reach 70k as stop loss.

The biggest concern is indeed volume moving into future and derivative market making the entire market focused on squeezing the bulls instead of organic price growth. However, if market is feeling bullish, it will disregard squeeze and go up endlessly. We just need more reason for bitcoin to go up higher because currently we are lacking the driving narrative. Other than that, other biggest problem is people thinking the low for this cycle could be a lot lower therefore they keep opening short.

I'm fine with this. What happened in the recent dump? When we drop below $80,000, for me is a healthy pullback. Right now, $80,000 is acting as significant short - mid term resistance, which, for me, is one of the keys we will see the $100,000 level easily again once we go back above $80,000. I'm more positive to see $100,000 first than going back to $60,000 again.

The $60K zone is essentially the Bitcoin mining floor price. Once the price dips below $70K, the buying pressure will be insane—even people on their deathbeds will find a way to drag themselves to exchanges to buy BTC. A buying opportunity at a discount like this only comes around once every four years. And after 2028, we will never see Bitcoin at $60K again

The truth is, it is already like that but some people are so confident sometimes like when they see a stable market and then a couple of some rise, they then think it will continue for a long time. They forget things like we are still under some season or events. This don't only apply in the crypto world but also outside, since some events in the real world influence the price too. The moment we have now, hits them and makes them to realize that the market is truly unpredictable, no matter what the charts are showing in our screens. If there is something that is true, then that is in the couple of years to come, we can only have a higher base price due to increased adoption.