Right now, BTC is around $89,900 to $90,000 after some crazy swings. It dropped below $88K before bouncing back.
Throughout the day, around $600 to $625 million in positions got wiped out both longs and shorts took a hit, which is unusual since both sides usually don’t get wrecked at the same time. The chaos is mainly due to some macro stuff: Trump’s responses to tariffs on Greenland in Davos stirred things up, people got more risk-on, but volatility still feels pretty low (Bollinger Bands looking tight).
ARK Invest is making some bold claims in their Big Ideas 2026 report, predicting a $16 trillion market cap for BTC by 2030. That’s about $762K per coin with a total supply of 21 million. Cathie Wood sees it even crazier, suggesting we could hit $1 million, thanks to institutional interest and a relatively chill correction cycle.
What’s your take? Are we just building up for a massive jump like we’ve seen before, or is a drop below $85K looming because of FOMC decisions and inflation?
People usually exaggerate when they talk about Bitcoin. I don't know if it's overconfidence based on the current price movement or overexcitement that makes them not realistic with their excitement. We will be extremely lucky to see Bitcoin get to 500,000 by the next halving. I don't think that would happen, not saying it's impossible, but it's unrealistic. 300,000 is the maximum, in my opinion.
To be honest, right now I can't really tell. But what gives me hope is that despite all the geopolitical unrest, Bitcoin has not gone below 80,000 dollars. Not even at the end of last year, when it was having a free fall. So I believe if it can hold on at the current range past these times, there would be an upward surge.
Recent data information puts Bitcoin in a high risk consolidation zone with the loss of its price going below $85k currently, despite the long term bullish stand it has made since late December till date.
For the traders and investors, it is not advised to use a stop-loss hunt of below the $85k margin before any announcements from the FOMC comes, because the market would likely trigger your safety orders before it moves any higher than it is already doing.
I see this as a structural retest that has the potential to drive the price higher or even lower.
I don't think anyone knows for sure, but over time the trend has been clear: people who own bitcoin have done well if they didn't panic, didn't use margin (although there are exceptions), and just kept accumulating. As JPM said about how he could predict the stock market: it will fluctuate. And I'd add "with a long term bias towards growth."
Yeah, its kinda funny to see liquidations happening in both the directions, just shows how volatility can hit both the sides.
Speaking about volatility even Gold and Silver has been behaving the same way as we can see big pump followed by a big dump.
May be that's how the market is currently but surely we can't make anything out of this and certainly not predict of the next big pump after this.
Yeah, in the longer term we will see a significant surge in bitcoin price but I don't think we will see something extraordinary in the next few months.
I doubt whether, apart from the clear effect of Trump's statements, the sell-offs as it approaches the round figure of $90K or $100K have anything to do with what I raised in this thread:
The covered calls theory for the current market
Cathie Wood would do well to keep quiet. She gained fame for a short period when her fund performed very well, but look at this:
Morningstar Calls Cathie Wood The Worst 'Wealth Destroyer'