Comparing Bitcoin Dominance: 2021 vs 2025

Came across this on X. Someone noticed that the Bitcoin dominance chart from 2021 looks pretty similar to what's happening in 2025. I looked into the prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum from back in 2021 and now, and honestly, the price movements are strikingly alike. Whenever Bitcoin takes a hit, it seems like Ethereum and other altcoins follow suit. Some folks are hoping for an altseason, but I'm not buying it. I really think Bitcoin's gonna keep climbing while altcoins lag behind. What do you all think?

In as much as I think bitcoin follows almost the identical pattern or trend as in the past I think there should be changes, I have seen bitcoin market trend of this year been identical to that 2017 too. I somehow do not see the bitcoin dominance reducing drastically like it did in 2021 but I believe the hype around an alt season coming will make it more stable for a while. One thing people need to understand is that bitcoin price doesn’t need to actually reduce if the dominance reduces, the price might be a little bit stagnant while the dominance shifts a little while to alt coins. Ever since bitcoin actually went above $120k and is now consolidating there have been inflows into alt coins that I expect them to actually move up higher than this at this moment. My analysis actually is that bitcoin dominance has actually drop or a little for the past two weeks for alts season to begin but it’s crystal clear that most investors are not buying into volatile alts this season and that’s why it is looking like bitcoin will not have its dominance reduced drastically like in the past year

Bitcoin Dominance will be influenced more by fundamental realities than repeated patterns. Satoshi created BTC to be money or "digital gold" and not much else. This reality leaves tons of room for the best, most useful altcoins to thrive in the future. Solana (SOL), for example, is coming on really strong as ETH spirals into a continued slump due to it's flawed, and very shady beginnings. The future will be extremely bright for the best altcoins.

Bitcoin prices usually takes a pick during the last quarter of the year and it comes during the years that Bitcoin halves or after that year, if we observe closely, it happened that Bitcoin price started surging and giving us new highs towards the late months of last year, if that happens again this year as believed to happen, that means we will experience new high again before the end of the year and not too many altcoins will do well as Bitcoin or Ethereum.

But how do you think Bitcoin dominance will go? Like if Bitcoin pumps till the end of this year, do you think Bitcoin dominance will also pump? Because if yes, then the altcoin market will be bloody. Because from what recent pumps made by Bitcoin - Bitcoin dominance also increasing, and no sign of any altcoin market takeover to Bitcoin.

To be honest, it's hard to depict and say what it will actually be in the end of the year. But I am on the side that it's going to end this year still in a bullish mode. While I am not in worry on how it will end for this year because it's for sure that it follows the 4-year cycle. The altcoin bagholders are still hopeful that it will come. Maybe after several months or before this year ends, there will be a rally for the alts and it will affect Bitcoin's dominance as the pattern goes, if the price of Bitcoin goes high and so as its dominance. And if the dominance decreases then it goes to the alts and their dominance such as ETH will be the one to increase but not a lot compared to Bitcoin.

If you look at ETF flows and ETH volatility recently, you will see that ETF flows into bitcoin have slowed and decreased significantly. Meanwhile, the money flowing into ETH is proving to be much more superior. Additionally, ETH price also showed better growth as Bitcoin dominance dropped to 60-61%. Or top altcoins doing well like BNB breaking 2021 ATH, XRP's growth, if this isn't a sign of altcoin season, I don't know what to call it.   The cycle is still the same, it is still repeating and there is only a delay (small change) that makes people skeptical about altcoin season. Image source: x.com

To be fair, no one knows what will happen, it's all speculation. You don't believe in altcoin season, simply because you don't invest in it and it's no surprise that you don't expect them to go up in price. On the contrary, people believe that there will be an altcoin season because they invest in them. For me, there will be no altcoin season like before, meaning all will grow and bring x5-x10 profit. Because the number of altcoins in the market is too large and we will not have enough cash flow for all of them. But I believe there will be a few altcoins(selected) that can outperform bitcoin in the coming months. I mean Bitcoin dominance will also have to go down, altcoins like ETH, SOL, BNB, LINK, ONDO, and really useful altcoins will grow. The money is clearly shifting, with ETH ETFs are outperforming BTC ETFs and if we continue to deny it, we are just being stubborn.

This is right, we all have our biases and that's why if we're bagholding so much altcoins, we'd think of it that there will be an altcoin season and we're hopeful for that. While those that don't have it, they won't mind to say if there is a coming one because they don't care at all and they don't have those altcoin assets that they're going to have. So, we holders of both of it, are hopeful for that but at the same time if we see no clear signs that we're shifting into an altcoin season then we better just hope for less. Although we're on a better side because we've got Bitcoin that makes our portfolios balanced.

This is for me now the main focus, especially in ETFs, like Ethereum and Solana. Before, we only saw people always talking about Bitcoin ETF. But this time it's already different. The volume and institutions/ETFs that are really helping in the volume of the market. So, there could be some changes for sure in Bitcoin dominance compared from the past. We need to consider a lot of things now.

If we compare the returns that BTC and ETH have had since the early days until now, ETH will never be able to surpass bitcoin. But if we compare the profit margins in each cycle, ETH outperformed bitcoin in the most recent cycle (2021). That is not too surprising or difficult to understand because the smaller the capitalization, the greater the growth opportunity. Like bitcoin vs gold, bitcoin always gives better returns. Therefore, I believe that if altcoin season comes, ETH and some other altcoins will grow better and definitely bring better returns than bitcoin. But in return, it will be riskier if we invest in ETH or altcoins.

Expected consolidation as well and we will see whether bitcoin dominance gonna break resistance or support. I still hold majority of my portfolio in bitcoin, I still think there's still sometime until dominance going down and not to mention that most of altcoin can't be said to have reached ATH, far from it actually. from the total3 chart also there is possibility of double top on weekly timeframe However, just in case, I still allocate some good amount of my money to altcoin with high trading volume just in case altcoin season come sooner than expected.

Right, ETF is a big factor now, a lot of money are coming in the market. But I think Bitcoin dominance will remain relative to the money that are going, volumes of trade. Maybe there will be some changes, but I think it will be just minute. Just like in this bull run, everyone is expecting that there is a alt season already, but if you look at Ethereum, it even had broken it's previous ATH while Bitcoin will go for another attempt this month and maybe at the of supposedly ghost month, we might be seeing $130k.

More precisely, it is not shifting but rotating, which will eventually flow back into Bitcoin after the liquidity flows. It is like taking profits in Bitcoin and then moving them to ETH to get a boost because BTC has already done so. This rotation always occurs in the price of Bitcoin to altcoins. Additionally, in the altcoin market in 2021, there were only a few new coin issuances, unlike today, which has millions of coins. Logically, with altcoin market liquidity not significantly different from the 2021 bullish peak, prices won't see much of an increase. We must remember that Bitcoin and ETH are receiving new capital injections from institutions via ETFs, while other altcoins are circulating with the same funds. Therefore, it is quite challenging for altcoins to outperform Bitcoin. Looking at this cycle, Bitcoin has already reached multiple all-time highs (ATHs), while ETH is still facing its own significant resistance level.

No one knows the exact date for them but all scenarios are possible. In terms of growth however, BTC is truly ahead and I think this won't change that fact anymore. OP didn't said that he only invest in BTC but I believe that even for an alt investor, some are still realistic to say that an alt season may not happen on a certain time. There are also people that even if they didn't invest in an alts or anything, they are still bullish or bearish on some assets. There may be lots of alts now but who says we will all invest on them when most might only be junks? As long as many good coins can jump in price then that is still an alt season. There will be a shift from time to time. It only depends on the mood of the market or the people but I think it is not stubbornness if we only have our own favourites.

I’ve noticed that too. The patterns look similar on the chart but the market environment seems to be different this time. Back in 2021, altcoins had a lot of hype cycles pushing them up. Now, Bitcoin’s narrative is so strong that it’s dominating most of liquidity in the market leaving alts struggling to catch up. I won’t rule out some mini alt runs but a full-blown “altseason” like 2021? I doubt. My doubt doesn't literally mean that it's totally not possible but looking at the market sentiments, I think it's very unlikely to happen this year like what we saw in 2021.

It is not just a normal and gradual shift, but the flow of money from bitcoin to ETH is very strong and somewhat blatant, because it shows the market what the next step and real intentions of funds and institutions are. According to the latest report, today alone, the inflow into ETH through ETFs has reached more than $1 billion, while the inflow into bitcoin is significantly weaker, reaching just over $139 million. Previously, all this money would flow into bitcoin, but now, there is a clear fragmentation between the demand for bitcoin and ETH. I never doubted altcoin season. https://x.com/thepfund/status/1955091675476537439 https://x.com/thepfund/status/1955090186347626972

You may be right with what happened but the bull run is not over yet, so it is still too early to say bitcoin will outperform. Even though bitcoin has broken multiple ATHs this year, but did you know the price is only 7x higher than the 2022 ATL and only about 76% (1.7x) higher than the 2021 ATH? Bitcoin's growth in this cycle is quite modest compared to previous cycles, it is not as strong as we imagined. Meanwhile, ETH is up nearly 5x from its 2022 low, and it has more time and room to grow for the rest of this cycle than bitcoin. Let's wait and see who will come out on top when this cycle ends.

If we calculate fairly and you look at the ETH calculation from its lowest point in 2022, then you should look at the same point on Bitcoin, which had its lowest point in 2022 at a price of $16k. If you calculate how many times it has multiplied since the last ATH for Bitcoin, isn't that bigger? This is no longer the early stage you mentioned, as we are at the end year of Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle before entering a bear market (if it happens again), so it’s only natural to consider it now. If Ethereum’s market capitalization can strengthen, at least to half of Bitcoin’s, it would certainly be more advantageous for Ethereum in this cycle. However, the question is how likely it is to reach that point? Personally, I think it’s very difficult, but for Ethereum to achieve a new all-time high (ATH) is very possible given the current price movement, and that must be emphasized if the trend continues.

Bitcoin's lowest low in the 2022 bear season was $16k and the highest ATH Bitcoin reached in this cycle was $123k, which is a 7.6x increase. Meanwhile, ETH bottom was $900 and from current price it has increased more than 4 times and things are just getting started. That's why I say you're right about what happened, but the bull season isn't over yet so it would be unfair to rush to declare Bitcoin will still outperform. For ETH and altcoins, they don't take as long to grow as bitcoin, they only need 4 to 5 months to grow and that's enough for them to grow x5-x10 or even x100. For example, OKX coin of OKX exchange today increased x3 in 1 candle, the capitalization of this coin increased from 2 to 6 billion in 1 day. Like I said, let time tell and we will know who wins, instead of just making predictions based on emotions.