I've been thinking... is it really just war that's messing with the market? We all know things are in a bear run, but it seems like there's always some kind of bad news that pops up during these dips. Whenever a bear market hits, there's usually some incident like a hack, a war, or something else that gets thrown into the mix, making people think that's the reason for the market's losses.
What do you all think? If the war wasn’t happening, could we have seen better movement in the crypto market overall? I'd love to hear your thoughts and maybe look back at past bear markets.
While I will say most of this things are actually coincidence and really that its bitcoin market trend that come with its respective news. If you look at even last year which was bullish year, there was also similar news like this; bybit was actually hacked then and funds were stolen, this current US vs Iran War also started last year. So its not like bad things only happens in bearish times but it does happens even in bullish times and bitcoin always stands according to its trend.
This particular to me hasnt had much impact on bitcoin, because ideally this is definitely supposed to be a bearish year if we go by bitcoin historical trend but its not, it actually has done much better since the start of the war, the war started on the last days of February and bitcoin market price was actually $67k then and since then we have gone below that, which means technically we have been bullish since the start of war plus this is a bearish year, so I dont actually think the price would have been any better
Without war the market would have still been bearish, the Bitcoin market was already bearish before the war started, and that was a begining of the bear run to complete the cycle, fill inefficiencies, and absorb liquidity,
So the war might just make it faster, it's not the cause
So basically if there is war or similar Crisis after the market makes an bear or bull attempt it could quicken the process, therefore could be an advantage to the people that understands the real movement of the market
Definitely yes th war have a slight impact on the current Bitcoin and crypto market record, although we cant say for sure that we have gone pass the bear market totally, but yeah this current market level a a big relief or most investors at least current price signals a positive expectation in the coming day's, th war in Iran is more of economic war right now and Bitcoin as alternative source of money transactions can witness high demands at least avoid saction and monitoring of money money movement within the crisis regions, this could be the reason or recent market drastic changes.
That's part of the parabolic system that makes the market unpredictable.
It's still same here in the forum that we argues about the potential effects of the wars with the influence to manipulate the general global market to have the potential of manipulating bitcoin price since it's suggested according to the unverified speculations that inflations and unemploymenta can even cause investors to sell their bitcoins to solve immediate needs.
And with a massive or selling pressure in that course course ignite price fall where demands pressures becomes so low.
In this phase of the bitcoin market, I doubt if war actually have any negative effects on the price because the market is better showing bullish signals than bearish despite the tensions.
So I believe the events and outcomes of the bitcoin market is coincidence as thought.
Unfortunately this is the case with today's war's, the insecurity this has caused has brought in a lot of fear and doubt on where people can invest their money..and to top it off, looking at the countries affected the most, like the gulf nations that have the oil money ready to be splashed on anything they like...unfortunately this money will be going to rebuild damanged infrastructure and probably trying to invest in arms to be able to protect themselves better..for now there will be a mindset shift to do away from cryptocurrency investments or consumption investments , priority one is protect ourselves better.
The opportunity cost for crypto to have grown in this period is sunk, but slowly markets are getting back on their feet and maybe will could be rebounding to 100K soon
War did have impact to some extent, but remember we're already got wrecked by the tariff and the AI craze where everyone is betting on the next biggest AI company.
Money are already outflowing before the war occurred and bitcoin is also reaching top roughly 534 days after halving. We are already in a bearish market if we follow the bitcoin's cyclical routine.
Can't really blame it on the war when all these things have happened before the war even takes places.
War or not, top is already in.
You are right, previous bear market have always been linked to a negative event, a black swan. In 2018, the collapse of Ponzi schemes triggered a bear market. Similarly, the collapse of Luna and the Russia-Ukraine war coincided with the 2022 bear market.
However, do not forget that market are cyclical, no market only rises without ever falling. Therefore, whether there is war or not, a bear market is inevitable.
If I remember correctly, Bitcoin dropped from $126k to $60k before the war broke out.
Since the 4 year cycle is so popular with Bitcoin and we know that after three years there is usually one year of a bear market, people tend to use that opportunity to buy low and sell high then buy low again during the bear market. In my opinion, its largely driven by people sentiment because we still get bad news during a bull market, but whenever the price drops due to bad news it tends to get absorbed and forms consolidation before moving higher, people dont want to miss the bull market.
Meanwhile, during a bear market when bad news appears people panic and sell their Bitcoin, which makes others afraid to buy, as they expecting the price to drop more lower. Personally, I agree that bad news still affects prices whether its war, exchange hacks, big project failed, etc. sentiment toward Bitcoin is different in bull and bear markets. Also, many people spread expectations of lower Bitcoin prices/FUD on social media instead of encouraging each other to do DCA at support level. They often tell others to wait for lower targets based on their predictions, this way people will afraid to absorb the selling pressure.
Honestly, I dont think the war started the bear market. If you check the charts, the market was already dropping before all the headlines came in.
The fear and weak sentiment were already there. The war only made people panic faster and sell harder.
Just look at 2018, no war, no major event, yet Bitcoin still crashed badly. Sometimes markets correct on their own after a strong bull run.
So even without the war, we would probably still be here, maybe just with less fear and a faster recovery.
As some other member have pointed out, the bear market had begun before the war. Furthermore, war is not the only factor affecting the market. If you check the chart, you will see that the conflict between Iran and the United States has had very little impact on the market. So, the war cannot be blamed for the current market situation
Although markets are significantly influenced by macroeconomic and geopolitical, do not always try to link every market move to them. Instead, keep thing simple and treat it as normal market volatility. Because in any market, prices go up and down.
The war had little effect on the market price. That is, without the war, the market would still be in a bear market. We have to accept what's happening and keep our minds far from the bullish trend. Because it is going to be a long ride before we see Bitcoin become bullish. My speculation has exceeded this year. I dont see Bitcoin reaching $120k by the end of this year. Maybe next year will be better.
I dont think war is the main cause. Bitcoin already moves in cycles. Bad news like war just makes the drop faster or deeper. Without it, the market might fall more slowly, but it would still go down.
A lot of factors contribute to where the market points at every moment, so a singular event like a war cannot totally decide whether the market will be bullish or bearish except perhaps the war becomes very severe that it becomes a global concern. Like some posters have noted here we were already in the near run before the US Iran war so it's not entirely because of the war that we are still experiencing bear market.
It is basically a series of events at a perticular time that influences the market sentiments, how severe the effects will be will depend whether there will be a sharp increase or decrease. We can experience a cumulative fundamentals that can break resistence and we will enter bull run just like that. Remember last year's bull run where we were speculating to see ATH of up to $150k but it didn't happen, it was short-lived and now we are in bear run.
Nope we can't hope for something like that continue to happen, because there's nothing like that will happen. If we base it on history Bitcoin always undergo with certain correction once it hit its new all time high.
If someone offering continuous pump for Bitcoin maybe they are trying to fool or scam those people listening to their opinions.
So better don't get hype on something unknown and what's better thing to do to prepare for any possibilities so they can take good actions once opportunity knocks again.
Greater change means a further drop in the bitcoin price? I doubt that war is keeping the price higher because it is believed that whenever we hear positive news about war, the price surges.
I mean we are already 50% down from the ATH which is a significant drop and who knows it may fall down further but still we are in the bear market and when it turns to be bullish there will be signs.
I doubt it. A correction was always imminent after the crazy bullrush and the whole war just accelerated that correction dramatically. What actually matters more to me is how BTC and other popular crypto recover again and again despite all of these corrections.
Just goes to show how resilient they are over the course of time. Am just totally satisfied seeing the state of the cryptocurrency market as of now.
The crypto market does not go down just because of war or negative news. There may be other reasons behind this. Especially if we talk about bitcoin, the bitcoin market was down even before this war. After that, the war may have had a greater impact on the price, but the price of bitcoin has not started to fall directly because of the war. And the volatility of bitcoin's price will continue to be in the future. It is not just because of war or bad news around the world. If the bad situation in the world cannot affect people's mentality, then there will be no effect on the market. The war situation is not yet resolved. The Middle East is currently still in instability. Oil prices are still on the rise. There has been a negative impact on the entire world economy, despite that, the price of bitcoin has increased a lot in the last few days. It is close to $80K. So there can be many things influencing the price of bitcoin. It is not just because of war or negative conditions.
The war has nothing to do with the cryptocurrency market price movement. Op if I may ask, how many people are using bitcoin in those places that war is ongoing? Is there any whale there that sold his bitcoin or buying more? As I have said, this the normal cycle of bitcoin movement though I was thinking that this month the price would go down but it seems that the price is volatile on this level.
What is the impact of the war on the market? We have not seen any real correlation or change since February 28th. The price has been in a downward trend and no deep correction has occurred accordingly.