Did btc's bull run just end or is this a normal correction?

Honestly, I don’t think the Bitcoin drop triggered by Trump yesterday was just a random event, even though it was super painful. It feels like it was a mix of macro shocks, some folks being over-leveraged, and the market needing a cleanup. Right before Trump announced his tariffs, a legacy Bitcoin wallet opened some massive short positions on BTC and ETH, worth billions. Then, Trump’s big tariff threats against China dropped like a bombshell, causing global markets to freak out. The S&P 500 dipped by 2%, Bitcoin crashed down to around $102K, and we saw over $20 billion in crypto liquidations, wiping out nearly $1 trillion in market cap in just a few hours. What’s really wild is that about half an hour before this was all officially announced, that same whale went even heavier on the shorts and walked away with around $200 million profit. Too coincidental, don’t you think? Across different web3 spaces, people are saying this isn’t just a meltdown but more like a “Big Reset.” Some analysts think it’s not about retail panic but really about funds and trading desks unwinding overly leveraged positions. Liquidity dried up fast, which caused a chain reaction of liquidations, and even stable assets like USDE dropped their pegs by 40%. That screams systemic stress. Still, I’m a bit hopeful that this cleansing could actually be a good thing instead of kicking off a bear season. We’ve seen crashes like this in March 2020 and mid-2023 that led to big recoveries. Leverage has been flushed out, shorts are piling up, and whales are starting to accumulate quietly. Fundamentally, Bitcoin looks strong with ETF flows, adoption trends, and on-chain accumulation all still pointing to bullish signs. So, from my perspective: Trump's tariffs sparked the selloff, but the market’s resetting itself.

I think what you say is possible, but just because one thing happens after another doesn't mean I'm going to conclude that there's a causal relationship between them. I don't think I need to remind you here of the famous relationship between Nicolas Cage and drowning in pools. He may have been an insider, or he may not have been; we'll never know for sure. No, it hasn't started yet.

There are still tons of stupid people playing with leverage causing much of the volatility in the market. As bitcoin's marketcap grows the price will become more and more stable but for now it is still relatively small and subject to some manipulation. At the same time the wild price swings are becoming less pronounced than they were in years past. As long as you don't sell you can't lose anything. The important thing is to diversify your portfolio and not have too much allocated to one thing because not many are able handle the volatility with all their eggs in one basket. I currently have no more than a quarter of my assets allocated to bitcoin. It used to be more than half, but since all the crazy tariff chaos started I now have most of my holdings in gold and silver ETFs for greater balance and stability. And to keep my sanity. Things are getting worse because the US government shutdown is causing even more shock to the economy. When millions of federal workers are suddenly going without their pay that is causing a further severe disruption to economic activity. And who knows how long it will last. It doesn't seem either side will budge anytime soon. It could be months. And then you have the $40 trillion debt crisis looming on top of everything.   It could be the perfect storm for the start of a long-term economic meltdown.

The bull seasonal may not be over yet, and even if it is going to be, not in this manner, what we can see here was as a result of market reaction and many thought about the news release from Trump to inflate China Tarrif plan by 100% and this cause the whales to move bitcoin and causing a sudden reaction to the market, we should not see it as something that may last long, because the correction will still remain until it returns gradually to somewhere close to where it started falling soon.

Enough with this speculation about the bull run being over when ever their is a poor market, I think we have seen this sequence enough to still believe that we should get agitated when ever their is a bad market. Alot of speculation about the recent decline in price of Bitcoin and many has pointed towards Donald Trump, I think politics is now having a strong hold on crypto-currency but still I don't think this poor market is something to really worry about or panic.

I hope you're not getting me wrong, i neither support that we are already at the end of the bullrun season, instead am insinuating on the further fall of the market this new week or for the market to rise the more settling back to where the fall began, pretty cool to know that there is still more expectation to all time high for this season, at least the previous fall that rent the market to $108,000 should taught us all some recent lessons about the market behaviour, it falls doesn't mean the end, but rather a preparation to rising the more.

I agree with you that media tell us stories about events happening because of reasons that aren't real, but in this case the fact that not only Bitcoin but other indexes too crashed make me think that in this case it was indeed the cause. The conspiracy theory about pre-planning it or not is a different question. I hope you're right D P D. You know me well and you also know that I don't have a good time every time we live drops like this one.

A coincidence is more probably to happen than it being an informant case here. The market is very unpredictable and traders try to play around the market especially those big investors. They take the biggest of risks and hope it works out for them and when it doesn’t, they still go on to take another risk until they get what they want. These are how whales operate and the crashes of the market doesn’t make them feel retard not to try again. It may be a perfect timing, but I still think of a possibility of just coincidence and not insider information. The bullish sentiment is not yet over in my opinion. The market will always obey the economy news but doesn’t mean the market will remain like that forever or change its direction. Trump is a major player to decide the movement of the market for a short time, so no cause for panic as we’re going to head back into the bullish phase once again. The party is far from being over yet, the anticipation for an all time high reaching $150K is still possible. The bullish phase is far from being over in my opinion.

No artificially induced crash is completely healthy, just like the covid crash wasn't healthy in 2021, but then it made us resume the bull market and go to a new ATH, so maybe it was? These crashes are usually very short and followed by maybe a week of uncertainty and then we get back on track. On one hand I'm happy that suicidal gamblers playing on 50x got destroyed, on the other hand this scares away newbies. My charts say it only went to 109k on Bitstamp.

Any normal market experiences corrections, whether there were some news or not. I would be so worried If a market was just moving on one trend only without any corrections. I think the bull run is still on until towards the end of the year perhaps (festive season selling). I guess it depends on an exchange but most exchange charts such those from Binance and Bybit show that the price went all the way to around $102K 1. https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT?_from=markets&type=spot 2. https://www.bybit.com/en/trade/spot/BTC/USDT

True, and what's funny is that it will totally align on what we see in charts. That's why doing TA is somewhat still relevant or at least it still has it's uses because there could be some unforseen events that we still don't know that is going to happen, but somewhat if you are TA base crypto person you might see it from the distance. Anyhow, I don't think that the bull run is over, this is just another correction just like what we have seen before. And this kind of news that dampen the market is going to be short live. As we still have two months to go and see what the picture will be as we might speculated that the official bear market might begin next year.

It's more of a big reset because too much open interest, too much weight for it to go up. Maybe within next week it will send to even higher level, that's why I started accumulating now. It's a stark reminder that even 2x leverage is not safe at all. Just trade spot and we will be fine.

Or the opposite can also happen. According to my observations, many people think this is a large-scale game reset and most think this is the bottom of the current correction. That means there could be a lot of gamblers continuing to open long positions and if this continues. I don't think the market will go up from here. The market will only truly go up if the masses truly sell everything and get scared. On the contrary, it will not rush to increase if people believe this is the bottom and are still trying to catch the bottom in the hope the market will rebound.

No. Neither you will decide how the bull will end. Volatility always remains unpredictable but I am on the same vein with you that the bull is still on. What we got is a normal dip, only that this one happened at it unusual way. So analysts wrongly speculates it was due to Trumps or so what tariffs. Maybe we can give it time and will see those whalers who sold buying in the agressive again and hodl to the couple of years in the long term before they would create such sales again. I guessed you don't need to tell you that long term whale investors only sold some of their Bitcoin assets at their best time (targets). The whalers of course have strong impact in the Bitcoin volatility while remains unpredictable due to traders market reactions. So it is not big thing to believe that the price will rise again while expectations remains uncertainty.

Its really difficult to know if the Bull season is over and just because the market drops by a percentage doesnt necessarily signal this. We are though already in the zone for Bear season which is approximately 18 months post halving. Also something to consider if we do actually get a Bull season this year.... Will it be a slow gradual decline for 12 months until we cross over into Bull territory? How much of a market decline will the Bear market suffer? Of course nobody can tell...

I don't think we will be experiencing the bear market the way it used to be before, The market dynamics has changed, institutions has got involved in the game, by now we will be talking about a possible bear market, there was a big flush, and I doubt if, we will further go down from here.

If we continue dumping, and the reason is always the United States tariff announcement, or basically a trade war, I will continue buying these cheap bitcoins. Just look at how we keep bouncing after the tariff announcement, so for me, it's just an opportunity to accumulate more Bitcoin and just hodl. So for me, in this bull season or cycle, I am still hoping Bitcoin will go to $150,000 above.

Well yeah that's definitely a possibility too. Seeing from the past rally it's always when people are the most scared that the price suddenly goes up. It happened at $49k flush where it become the bottom for this cycle, people are literally sidelined. Right now people are sidelined but great amount of people reopen position again with futures and open interest has grown.

Yeah, similar to many bull runs that we have seen, there will be month that the price will go down hard and we say that it's all over. But then Bitcoin will recover back, the only difference right now is that is was a huge dump and many didn't expect it to happened this fast that we didn't react on time as many has been liquidated. So it makes the next two months very hard to predict whether we're still in the bull run or  if the bear market has started. But personally, I don't that the bear has fully wrested the market from the bulls. This is one just of those black swans event and every cycle we have this kind of huge dump regardless of the cycle.

The bull season of Bitcoin to me doesn't seem over just yet, i believe there is some expected bullish moves ahead, this time there are some peculiarities that did influenced some happenings around Bitcoin unlike the usual that we have already known all along before now and so all of that seem to have affected its dynamics such that we can say to a great extent, we can expect some more from Bitcoin as it doesn't look to me like it has peaked its ATH to not further proceed bullish. Since Trump became the president, it has really affected a whole lot of things with the announcements of tariff increase that comes in at intervals, that too may have in a way influenced some happenings around the Bitcoin circle and could have possibly caused the reason for the supposed uncertainties around the possible Bitcoin price if we are to further expect Bulls or settle with Bear.