So, when the war kicked off between Russia and NATO in Ukraine almost 3 years ago, it seriously messed with the global economy, causing recession and inflation. This pretty much stopped bitcoin's bull run in its tracks. It was at $69k, looking to hit $100k and beyond, but all that tension brought it crashing down to around $15k.
Up to now, it felt like a proxy war and both sides had taken a step back from escalating things. That seemed to help stabilize the global economy, even though the conflict still had its negative impacts. For instance, oil prices had been floating around $70 to $75 for the last couple of months, which isn't a huge shift. I think that’s one of the reasons we saw bitcoin rally recently.
But now, the US has decided to escalate by letting its military get directly involved in the fight against Russia, using ATACMS artillery that only they can operate to hit deeper into Russian territory. You can bet Russia will respond, and this back-and-forth could throw the global economy back into chaos.
While it's tough to predict exactly what will happen, we can speculate. This escalation could shake up the global economy, push energy prices up (like oil), and lead to more recession and inflation, which means interest rates could go up again.
Yea it's very true, this particular escalatory step taken by the US will definitely destabilize the global economy, but I think that it effect on Bitcoin will be minimal, and it will be just for a while, though nothing is certain, because we live in a world full of uncertainty, so am not 100% sure, but am very confident that if this turn of events affect Bitcoin price, it wouldn't be long that Bitcoin will start recovering from the setback it might encountered.
Then as for this statement here, just as I have already said already, nothing is certain, but as it is now, the war is already in full swing, comparing to then when it was just starting, so the panic level will be quite different, and I don't believe that this particular action of the Americans will start making investors start selling in panic that would warrant the price of Bitcoin to crash even up to 50k, but if it ever happened, I believe that in no distance time, Bitcoin will recover to even greater heights because Bitcoin is on the rise now.
The thing is we haven't experienced a big economy instability during bull season, the invasion was happen in 2022, two years after halving, two years after halving is bear season. While now, Bitcoin made new ATH during halving year, next year is the bull season.
I got what you mean and yeah there's a possibility, the institutions hold a lot money from people who bought Bitcoin ETFs. There's a rumor The US want to accumulate 1 Million of Bitcoin too, is this they strategy to dump Bitcoin in order to buy Bitcoin at cheaper price?
Little correction, the ATH in 2021 was $64K, I think you use Binance or other exchange where Bitcoin price hit more than $64K.
That's a good point, that I hadn't considered. It would be interesting to see how bitcoin reacts now. But also lets not forget that we are at the very beginning of the bull market where the momentum is not strong yet and doubt is still present.
I don't think they'd risk nuclear war just to dump bitcoin price!
$69k I used was from Bitstamp https://bitcoinwisdom.io/markets/bitstamp/btcusd
It was also the same on Coinbase/Gdax https://bitcoinwisdom.io/markets/gdax/btcusd and bitfinex https://bitcoinwisdom.io/markets/bitfinex/btcusd
Set the interval to 3d to be able to go back that far.
There has already been approval for hitting targets inside Russia with western weapons (albeit in certain areas), so this is just a continuation of the west's policy to try to influence Russia's military ability to inflict new damage on Ukrainian infrastructure and kill civilians in Ukrainian cities. According to international military law, every country has the right to retaliate against targets in another country from which its territory is threatened, and even enter the territory of another country to prevent this.
I do not think that such (limited) attacks will have an effect on the world economy, and thus on the price of BTC, considering that the world is already (unfortunately) used to the effects of the ongoing war in that part of the world. Although it cannot be ruled out that Russia will make a move to use tactical nuclear weapons, at this moment it would be a really crazy move that would result in sharp retaliation from the NATO alliance and very likely the beginning of the third world war.
Unfortunately for Ukraine, a man who is much closer to Moscow than to Kiev won in the US, and all Russia has to do now is wait for that man to take power. It can be assumed that the war will end next year, the only question is in what way.
International law means absolutely nothing in cases like this, if it did the NATO-backed Gaza Holocaust would have stopped or it would have stopped invasion of Yemen a decade ago. Speaking of which, the day Russia invaded Ukraine (~3 years ago) I compared it with US-Saudi invasion of Yemen. The only way that invasion was defeated was when Yemeni forces started bombing the hell out of US bases and hitting Saudi infrastructure deep into their territories.
The point is, I've already said Ukrainians should've hit Russian targets 3 years ago. But what you are missing here is that Using ATACMS to hit Russian targets will not be Ukraine hitting Russia. It will be 100% US military hitting Russia. The missiles, their launch platform, the satellites used to detect targets, the guidance system used to guide the missile to its targets, etc. are all classified, encrypted and in full control of US military.
None of it matters though since Russia has already said they'll see it as NATO's direct involvement, which means it is indeed a major escalation.
Although I have to add that this speculation depends on a lot of ifs. For example we first have to see what targets the US military decides to hit over the coming weeks and then see how Russia decides to respond to those hits.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/russian-nuclear-doctrine-threatens-response-092200158.html
not to worry it does appear we are all going to die very very very soon.
As Russia is looking to drop the nukes .
Been nice to know you all.
The US was involved in that war from the very beginning as one of the biggest supporters of Ukraine, otherwise the situation on the battlefield would be much worse for Ukraine. The fact that the current administration gave the green light for the use of rockets with a range of only 300 km and only for the Kursk region does not change anything in the context of the entire war.
In addition, according to the agreement on nuclear disarmament between the US and Ukraine, the US undertook to protect Ukraine in case it was attacked, which without a doubt happened. In addition, Russia also receives military assistance from some countries - are we going to go into such details now as to who exactly controls what and with which weapons?
The key thing is that it is a defensive war in which Ukraine defends itself against the complete destruction and occupation of an even larger part of its territory - does it matter at all what weapons systems it uses for that?
A barking dog doesn't bite - or in this case, it bites like a poodle. The second military power of the world has been conducting some kind of special military operation for 3 years and has lost so many people and equipment that they need the help of a North Korea where people are literally starving.
No one is stupid enough to use nuclear weapons first, because if Russia does, they know they will be wiped off the face of the earth.
I dont think you want to blame external events for BTC success or failure. The launch of missiles in just one country out of the many in the world is no excuse for BTC to sell off.
Its fairly certain BTC will see 100k and that much is very positive. Even if that was the top price for the next few years, its nothing to complain about.
The excess prices far beyond maybe 169 maybe 269k are quite likely down to dollar decline in value, which greatly boosts many prices and is also at the same time highly inaccurate volatile and ultimately destructive.
They are taking this gradually as people are like the frogs in the pot. Only a few people notice how hot it can go until the bombs drop. People won't even remember how this war started.
But sure when rates are increased again then inflation will continue and BTC will also fall while those who bought this Trump train are going to keep dumping til the price dive again to bear stage. Jerome Powell is still the FED by the way.
That was a proxy war not direct involvement.
The first targets US military hit was in Bryansk which has nothing to do with Kursk https://www.rt.com/russia/607877-bryansk-long-range-strike/
If it causes an escalation leading to a global nuclear exchange then yes it does matter.
Here is something for you to watch from a US Marine intelligence officer https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezQ0aY-csFM
Actually I am not sure if you noticed but Bitcoin has been quite stable, regardless of the news of ATACMs. We cannot make any speculations on whether this prevented the bull run or not just as we cannot make any accurate predictions on the bull run itself, such as the starting date or the highest price.
Bitcoin has been going up and we have yet to see a decent correction. Sure BTC may not be out of steam just yet, but that does not mean the bull run is linear.
Actually the surface and speculations of the US and its ATACMs could range to a deceitfulness of the bull-run if we have to consider the effects of the macroeconomy because the trumpet is blowing to a call of recession.
The baseline could be that it manipulates the dynamic of the Bitcoin market.
Don't we think this could be a course of the stability of current market condition? But that has not come to make us believe the bull-run is over though.
Moreover we are expecting the bull-run to come somewhere in 2025 so hope has not been lost.
The stability of the market price now is a norms in regards of the regulatory and speculative environments which FOMO could also opt higher institutions to pend forwarding to buy more or huger amount of Bitcoin supposing to push the market value forward.
They have not yet hit "Bitcoin HQ" with ATACMS to cause an immediate fall
But kidding aside, this recent decision is setting forth a series of events, like a chain reaction, that could affect global economy and consequently the bitcoin price. Imagine the scenario where Russia decides to retaliate by for example blowing up some gas infrastructure going into Europe from Africa (similar to how US blew up Nord Stream pipeline).
But sure, if things don't escalate and if the conflict doesn't change the already bad economic situation, then Bitcoin doesn't care and will continue rising. I have not forgotten that we are in post halving bull period.
If you want to make a big deal out of it like Russia is doing, I have nothing more to say. War is war and it doesn't matter what kind of sticker you add to it.
Who says that ATACMS systems were used in that attack, the Russians? If I'm not reading it wrong, the distance from the Ukrainian border to the attack site is about 150km, maybe it was some other missiles?
A few rockets that will be used in a limited area does not mean that there will be a nuclear escalation - the Russians have been threatening it for three years and may threaten another thirty - there are no winners in such a war, why start it?
I guess it's about a former officer who wants his five minutes of fame with the announcement of the third world war. How many such announcements have there been since the end of World War II until today?
This move by the US is definitely risky. The more they assist Ukraine, the higher the tension rises. Right now, we might not feel much of the global impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict because Russia is clearly the stronger power and can dominate Ukraine. But if Russia starts targeting the US due to their involvement, things could escalate fast. Hopefully, it wont lead to nuclear war, but if Russia shifts its focus to the US, theres no doubt it could have a major impact on the global economy particularly in the Energy Market.
So, I felt like in such scenarios, the Bitcoin market could actually benefit as history has shown that even during global economic downturns, Bitcoin has managed to thrive, proving its resilience. So, in response to the question, NO, Bitcoin wont be negatively affected in the same way stocks might. The US doesnt control the Bitcoin market, and if investors seek a hedge against instability, Bitcoin could emerge as the top choice. Its decentralized nature and historical performance during crises make it a strong contender in uncertain times.
Who else matters? After all, we are waiting to see how Russia responds to this escalation so we have to read what Russia says to know how they see it.
For example in this case the 2 key points is that they claim it was ATACMS and they claim it was a failed strike (ie. 5 out of 6 intercepted). Which means they see it as the escalation we discussed but they are trying to lower the bar. Which is a good sign meaning they don't see it as the threat that needs to be dealt with using a "stronger force" including but not limited to nukes.
That means unlike Washington, Moscow is doing escalation management.
But that was seen as weakness and only translated to more escalation by NATO! This time UK-supplied Storm Shadow missiles that is viewed by Russia similar to ATACMS, meaning England's direct attack on Russia.
This war criminal is just explaining the technical details of how ATACMS work, as a former weapons inspector and an intelligence officer. And of course we are closer to a nuclear war than ever, denying it won't make the risk go away.
That whole North Korea troops thing is mighty suspicious to me and seems like a NATO lie of some sorts.
It started off with 3000 NK troops being trained for combat (Pentagon / south Korea spy sources), then it suddenly was 10,000, then 11,000.
The latest BBC reports say as many as 100,000 will go to fight Ukraine.
ALL from "western" sources. The same ones who tried to make us believe Russia blew up their own Nordstream pipeline I may add.