Man, it’s pretty crazy seeing how far we’ve come. Remember when we were just hoping to stay above $20k? Now we’re casually talking about whether $74k is a steal or way too high.
But honestly, doesn’t it feel like something’s shifted this time? In the past, whenever the S&P 500 stumbled, Bitcoin went right down with it. And with any geopolitical issues, we’d always see money rush to safe havens like Gold while BTC was tossed out with all the tech stocks.
This month though, it’s like we’ve finally cut the ties. Gold is doing its thing, the stock market’s having its ups and downs, and Bitcoin is just holding its ground, breaking away from all that noise and making its own way. It seriously feels like Bitcoin is no longer just a speculative tech investment but has transformed into a real, independent store of value.
I’m really interested to hear from the long-timers here:
Are you noticing this in your portfolios? Is Bitcoin finally stepping up as the digital gold we’ve been hearing about since 2011?
Do you think this $100k level is the last major hurdle we need to leap over before we stop getting compared to traditional markets altogether?
Or is this just another moment where we get hopeful before some macro event drags us back down?
I’ve been glued to the charts all morning, but honestly, I trust the vibe from this forum way more than any technical indicator.
What do you all think? Are we finally standing strong on our own?
Everyone and their mom is waiting for October to truly find out.
Hopefully cycle logic holds consistent. If not, I think the market could get super crazy with everyones reaction to the cycles being no more.
This is not the first time Bitcoin will touch 100,000, so it will easily break the range when it gets there. It is not a psychological barrier. We are expecting more greater digit than the ATH of about 122k.
It is a circle of going above the existing ATH. From the beginning of bitcoin innovation, it has not pulled any faithful investor back, each halving has produced ATH and that is significant on progress of bitcoin.
If I think about it, I also feel strange about the current situation where bitcoin should be in a bearish state because there are so many conflicts, stocks are falling and including gold is also predicted to decline, but bitcoin has recently increased, whether it is a bounce or not makes it gray.
Hopefully bitcoin continues to rise and returns to the psychological price, but it's like it will break the law of the bitcoin cycle, and if the bitcoin cycle is broken like what @(BTC) said it will be very chaotic, but actually I really like it if bitcoin is not influenced by things like that anymore because it can show the independence of fluctuations.
We need much more confirmation for that.
Bitcoin has correlated with the S&P 500 only in the 2020s, so it's a relatively recent phenomenon. In the late 2010s even people already speculated that Bitcoin could be a "contrarian" asset. And indeed it had few to no correlation to the US stock market.
In my opinion the correlation in the early 2020s had several reasons (I'm not an expert though):
- COVID dip - Bitcoin crashed when the stock markets crashed too. That could be the reason for stock market crashes now triggering Bitcoin panics, due to Bitcoin HODLers remembering that "shock",
- Elon Musk's engagement with Bitcoin and crypto since 2020 - first time a big tech company made headlines related to BTC
- And finally the ETFs, which brought us a new generation of investors very closely related to TradFi & Wall Street, with similar investment patterns.
Why should we "decouple" now? A possible idea is that gold/silver bubbled hard, and now investors see a cheap but stable Bitcoin. They could be tempted to try their luck taking gold/silver profits and invest in Bitcoin.
Bitcoin also possibly was extremely oversold at 60k, and was only able to reach that price due to massive liquidations.
IMO we must wait for at least the end of the year to tell if the "decoupling" is real or a temporary phenomenon.
With the war, Ironically dollar is getting stronger
Which reduces the demand for Gold
As it makes it more expensive to purchase
Unlike Bitcoin that's a Non USD asset.
Bonds rate are rising so I believe majority would move hear and to Bitcoin than to Gold.
It feels too early to be sure but the direction we have always been headed towards is up. The cycle has been promising and I see no reason to fear the 100K psychological barrier.
The best thing to do, if you cannot handle the tension and have to keep looking at the charts every 5 minutes then the ideal solution is to walk away from the charts and forget about your coin for a few years. Better that than panic-sell and end up with a loss instead of a profit.
Not only about the conflicts but it should destined that way judging on its previous runs, although there are also times that when there is a war for example, it is doing better in fact. So maybe history just repeats again? Hhmm.. Bitcoin is different from the others. So if they are declining, maybe the liquidity is only transferring in Bitcoin, resulting for it to rise. What do you think? Bitcoin surely had bounced from the last times drop but some can doubt it or say that it was only just a trap. Well, that is already their problem.
It may be breaking a law but I think that is still a good thing and many will still like it . And let us admitted it. The usual law of Bitcoin is boring. We need to wait a very long time only to see a bull run again . And you know, not all has the cash to keeps on accumulating or the patience to keep on hodling and waiting.
Historical performance had always been analytical documents that's key driving for the future anticipations of investors.
Bitcoin is a store of values and you don't expect its price to be stable. So the past prices shouldn't be considered overbought because it had increased overtime when you know it'd still increase over the long time.
If you deliberate on the $20,000 which was an esteemed top notch and now $74,000 turns strong consolidations, know it that we also have an Ath of $126,000 and after the bear market, price would increase breaking more Aths.
Perhaps bitcoin was once $0 until it gained it potential values in the digital economy.
The four year cycle will not be broken, it never does and I am not expecting it to happen now. Four year cycle tells us that this year will be bear year, so do not hope for an increase in price back to where it was at the top, sure a small increase here and there, a few points maybe, but not above 100k, not this year. Some people expect that to happen and if it does then good for us, but I doubt it will be.
So it's better to wait for it to drop so that you could buy it cheap. That's how we et rich, wait for the bear year, buy the coin at lowest you can, and then when it goes up on the bull year you sell it. I expect it to reach under 50k, and then on bull year I expect it to reach 200k and that is quadruple profit.
One thing about bitcoin market is that the only accurate prediction which we have is the historical market trend which is the only near accurate prediction for bitcoin, but even over the years that this trend has repeatedly always occurs in the same way I think its actually best to know that it will not always happen in the exact way it is has always been coming historical. History can repeat its self but not always in the same exact trend.
A clear example is last year which was supposed to be the year for bull run, yes there was lots of bullish periods last year with a new ATH set at $126k but aside this bullish trend many still think bitcoin wasnt super bullish like it used to be in the past historical times, it had like two quarters most especially the last quarter which it was totally bearish and it is base on this that people have differential believe that this years bearish trend will have a quarter of bullish trend,
People think before the end of the year the last quarter might be bullish this year because the bearish sentiment has been on for long and the market might feel oversold by then
Of course, majority of people interest would be on Bitcoin than, especially since gold is physically asset where they would store it at their home or bank, but for Bitcoin it's very easier to move around just when they have their details stored or well backup. Bitcoin of course, is a store of value than the dollar and most people wouldn't want to have their money in dollar, and Bitcoin want also be influenced by the war and what we are seeing in the market today is as a result of bear market and is the reason so, we wouldn't expect all time to be green.
We are in a Bear market, simple as that, I really cannot see a pump to $100k and whatever about
the market without this war on Iran the way things are going I really think we will get further from
$100k before we get closer.
Yea, October/November would have been the turning of the Bear market but again depending
on the effects of this war and the duration all bets are off regarding October,/November IMO.
The last "turn" in October 2025 indeed had something of a "self fulfilling prophecy" because a lot of traders were expecting the pattern to follow the traditional "four year cycle".
However I'm convinced that this strategy (to expect all turns to be predictable) will work forever. Eventually, the traders will prioritize other kinds of signals than the traditional pattern, and also other signals than the stock markets and interest rates. These signals would be related to real Bitcoin adoption activity (payments etc.). That shift may come at any time, although I don't know if it's this year already.
I believe indeed macro politics to play a major role now. They could hold the price down for some time more.