Four theories based on Bitcoin's past: 01.10.2010-31.12.2013 BTC soared 10000 times

Hey everyone! I dug up some data on Bitcoin's price history, and it looks like there are six distinct phases of relatively stable BTC prices: 1. From 03.01.2009 to 30.06.2010, the price hovered around 0.0025 USD. 2. From 07.07.2010 to 30.09.2010, it was about 0.05 USD. 3. Between 01.07.2011 and 31.12.2012, we saw it at around 5 USD. 4. From 01.01.2014 to 31.03.2017, it was around 500 USD. 5. Then from 01.01.2018 to 30.09.2020, it jumped to about 5000 USD. 6. And since 01.02.2021, we’ve been looking at around 30000 USD. Based on this data, I've come up with four theories: 1. These different price phases were so distinct that accumulating Bitcoin across them doesn't really matter. Like, if you invested 10,000 USD in the third phase (01.07.2011-31.12.2012) and scored about 2000 BTC, then threw in another 10,000 USD in the fourth phase (01.01.2014-31.03.2017) and got about 20 BTC, plus another 10,000 for 2 BTC in the fifth phase (01.01.2018-30.09.2020), you can't really change your total BTC amount significantly with later investments. 2. The spikes in BTC price don’t seem linked to halving cycles. The similar price movements in 2013 and 2017 are more of an exception than a trend. 3. That insane increase of over 10,000 times in BTC price from 01.10.2010 to 31.12.2013 is totally unmatched. Nothing before or after has come close. In fact, during those 39 months, BTC's price skyrocketed more than in the following 154 months combined! Good luck finding any assets globally that have experienced such a price surge in such a short time.

2) its related to mining costs... which is also related to halving+related to hardware cost+related to networkhashrate increase of competing users 3)the 2010-2013 period seen a change from solomining CPU->GPU on one pc to poolmining gpu RIGS to then have asic mining in 2013.. so that explains the big bump of change of technologies(hardware) over the time causing hashrate jumps and thus hardware cost jumps thus minimum costs jump thus minimum people woud sell for thus minimum support for market price.. along with the halvings too if you looked at the generational mining hardware of a period spreading the hardware cost over a reasonable ROI, calculated the mining cost where electricity has a whole planet variance of $0.04/kwh-$0.50/kwh to work out a value:premium range of mining cost per period.. the market price always sat within the value:premium window EG CPU=1megahash GPU=100-600megahash ASIC2013=60gigahash 60,000x change 2010-2013 but more so the GPU-asic of upto 600x which if you then look at the halving and also the competing miners all add up to your 10,000x fold in market mining efficiency also countered mining cost so although hashrate jumped the cost per hash dropped the hardware costs per asic evolution(2013-2017) was calming down. they are not leaping up in hashrate as much as the past(60gh-9th=150x) the hardware costs per asic evolution(2017-2024) was calming down further. they are not leaping up in hashrate as much as the past(14th-300x=20x) so although 150x and 20x the efficiency per cost meant the price didnt need to jump 150x 20x so in summary, it all related. if you know enough datapoints

Thank you for very interesting information about BTC mining in its first years ! As I understand, Bitcoin is the result of some kind of mathematical calculation ? If so is it possible to reach to the result of this calculation without computer - just by paper and pencil ? How much time would it take to get 1 satoshi in 2009 (when the calculation was not so difficult as it is nowadays) without computer ? One day ? One year ?

Yes its a mathematical problem, and yes you can use paper and pencil to do the calculation. Here is a link to someone who did it and with more info if you want to have read through it. You can see he estimated 0.67 hash a day so very very very very slow compared to ASIC's today but it is doable. https://www.righto.com/2014/09/mining-bitcoin-with-pencil-and-paper.html

mining with paper https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y3dqhixzGVo in those days you solo mined a block which by having the winning solution you kept the whole block reward of 50btc, not 1 sat it was simply 50btc or nothing win or lose these days because the math number is now so complex hundreds of thousands of devices all try to find the solution and send it to the pool manager whom gets paid on his key, and he then divides the reward up by those who participated, which means although the block reward is now 3.125btc because hundreds of thousands of devices tried to find the result, everyone gets a share of that reward even though only one of the pool found the solution and gave it to the pool manager, the pool manager shares reward with everyone as for if solo mining by paper the timeline.. double sha=17minsx2=34mins per try initial result needed 8 leading zeros of hex '0' =168 =4294967296 tries which translates to ~1.7m days=4630years for one man to try and get lucky within

Thank you, it is extremely interesting information! I read it thoroughly and make some calculations.

These six periods are like six different worlds or like six different Bitcoins. I think about six stories about six hugely different persons , each one of them tried to accumulate million Bitcoins (with some probability of success). The first tried it in 2009, the second in the summer of 2010, the third in 2012, the fourth in 2015, the fifth in 2019, the sixth  in 2022. The last four had to be millionaires. Do you imagine putting all your resources into one aim - to get million BTCs ?  For example in the first period when no one understand what you are doing.