Hal Finney's First Tweet About Bitcoin!

So, Hal Finney, a computer scientist, sent out the very first tweet about Bitcoin on January 11, 2009. This was pretty much the kickoff for Bitcoin's journey. He wasn’t just a curious guy; he was actually one of the first to use Bitcoin, even getting the initial transaction from the creator back 16 years ago. Finney had this bold prediction too: if Bitcoin ended up being the top payment system worldwide, then its value would match all the assets on the planet. Do you think his prediction holds up? I feel like it was definitely on point.

To be specific he predicted Bitcoin price will hit $10 Million. That's really high prediction, but I would be very happy if it's true. At that time, Bitcoin was almost worthless, the price not even reach $1 per coin, but he dare to say it will worth $10 Million. Now, Bitcoin price cross to $100K, $10 Million looks impossible, but we shouldn't forget it was also looks impossible to reach $100K. I see your last sentence is very similar with this one, if you took from somewhere, better to include the link otherwise you're risking to get banned.

I'm taking your advice.

I also think that the prediction is fair, because the reason is clear that it will happen if Bitcoin has become the world's dominant payment system as you said, and I think this will really happen. Because we know that the US has started to support Bitcoin and will even make it as a national reserve, this will make various countries imitate it, and if that happens then Hal Finney's prediction will come true. In fact, I also see that Michael Saylor's prediction about the price of Bitcoin is higher. I really see a bright future for Bitcoin, because I conclude that these predictions are not from ordinary people, but from smart people and have a big impact on life. Source : Robert Kiyosaki Endorses Michael Saylor's $13M Bitcoin Forecast — 'I Believe He Is Right'.

Never heard of that prediction before but it's evident that the individual held an exceptionally visionary perspective on Bitcoin but none other have. Till now BTC has not achieved a status of being equal to all other world assets. So I believe to reach that status it has to be Atleast adopted in more than 20 to 40 countries, like being added to national reserves. legal tender, something like that, it have huge potential and with the adoption going on right now we can say with such a pace BTC can easily be in top 3 assets lists by market cap and eventually it will cross Gold too. All it need is time and more adoption and it is getting that slowly.

Well I saw the potentials of Bitcoin and that alone is legendary, yes we way day that the ten million dollars prediction may be too much or extraordinary but going by the then Bitcoin price and what Bitcoin is now, people would have still thought it extraordinary and will definitely have not believed the prediction. I choose to believe that Bitcoin will get better with time and in due time we would see even more extra ordinary numbers from Bitcoin.

If bitcoin turned to become the mainstream as we have all expected for, then expect it value to increase more than any other physical or digital asset in the world, we cant compare bitcoin with the way other assets or currencies exist, because this is the only decentralized one while others are centralized, aside that, we also have to understand the brain behind what these men have seen prior to the introduction of bitcoin, Hal has already made the history together with Satoshi, they knew it will become this great, because bitcoin is certainly what other people will see and accept base on the need for such a decentralized network, together with series of failed attempts others have made before them.

I think he was wrong with this prediction. This would be equivalent of a Bitcoin market cap of more than 200 trillion USD. The US dollar is the dominant payment system in the world. But the US dollar's M1 supply is about 18-20 trillion USD, even M3 is just over 20 trillion. A market cap of 20 trillion would result in a $950k-$1M Bitcoin. I think this is more realistic as a long term target price, but it's not guaranteed at all. A 10 million USD bitcoin imo can only be achieved if Bitcoin becomes the only relevant payment system, currency and store of value in the world. For several reasons I'm not convinced by this scenario.

And higher inflation rates as well. While the possibility is there, the value of fiat is dropping due to inflation but this also gives Bitcoin more of the deflation factor that it has got. Well, someday it will be $1M and then the next would be close to that $5M and maybe finally Hal's thoughts about it being $10M. There is so much wealth to the world that haven't distributed yet and it might be through Bitcoin soon.

I don't think the likelihood to reach $5M is very high. Volatility of Bitcoin is dropping, but mostly bull markets are now less steep, while our cyclic crashes still lose around 70% or more. In 2012-13 we had a run from $2 to $1100 (about 50000%), in 2015-17 we went from $150 to $19000 (more than 12500% but already less than in 2013), and in 2018-2021, "only" from $3000 to $69000 (2200%). Note the decreasing percentages? I don't think the cycle high in 2025 will be higher than $200,000 (which is a very optimistic prediction); then our run would have seen around 1300% (from the $15000 "FTX crash" price low). And "wealth" isn't something that abstract. Wealth is mostly based on work and resources. Bitcoin cannot solve resource distribution problems on its own, it's only a currency (besides of the little work/resources created by the "crypto industry"). It can perhaps help with some tasks though, see this thread for an example.

Even though he was one of the ones who developed it, there could have been no way for him to know exactly what would have happened to its value because it’s how the public will accept bitcoin that determines its value. You should always believe in what you are devoting your time and effort to and that’s exactly what he did.

There is absolutely no reason to expect Bitcoin's value to ever be "equal to the total value of all wealth in the world", so his prediction is baseless. Is the value of all currencies in the world equal to the value of all wealth in the world? No. Not even close. Therefore, why would you expect that from Bitcoin? I think it is impossible to justify the value of Bitcoin (in today's dollars) being greater than the value of all currencies plus the value of all the gold and silver. That would put the maximum possible value of a bitcoin at less than $1.5 million.

I don't agree with Hal's logic that if "Bitcoin is successful and becomes the dominant payment system in use throughout the world", "then the total value of the currency should be equal to the total value of all the wealth in the world." Why should it be? The total wealth in the world doesn't have to have a respective amount in money or currency. But I guess the possibility is there provided Bitcoin becomes the currency in the world. By the time Bitcoin reaches $10 million, fiat is more or less dead. USD is already worthless so $10 million becomes spare change. At which point, it's senseless to assign USD equivalent to Bitcoin.

I agree to you that the bull run is getting lesser every cycle but also means stability for Bitcoin. I have no idea and got no numbers in my mind on when we shall see those numbers but I believe that it come. Although I am still optimistic that this bull run and year with an amazing run but if we'll base it on the percentage gains every cycle, it is truly dropping. While that makes sense about the resource and contribution that it can do as a currency. But many of us are looking on it already as a store of value and an asset. And with its years of performance and volatility, that's make everyone believes that there's gotta be more from how much it is right now through it having a limited supply and the world is shifting into digital economies.

All predictions are wrong, and more likely inaccurate if you take time as an important factor for their predictions. You don't need to believe in predictions made by Hal Finney, Satoshi Nakamoto, Robert Kiyosaki or anyone. You can see Satoshi's prediction that is two-sided. Bitcoin and me (Hal Finney). Hal Finney was not Satoshi Nakamoto. Read them if you want to know more about Hal Finney.

BTC either wins big adoption-wise or goes home, that's how I read it. And I do think it's the truth.

This is true to some extent because every action done on Bitcoin is completely valid because Bitcoin is a successful coin, which is why you can work on it and give your own opinion, but some people don't like it.  Let me tell you one thing, it will never happen, but it will make such a difference that everyone will try to achieve it.  If, as you are saying, those who are billionaires will first convert the money they have into bitcoins, which will benefit the company, while the original money will be closed.  Bitcoin can not be used as a currency in any country. It could be that every country is using Bitcoin or it will run through each other's daily lives.  Bitcoin's parity is still zero, the USD will rise as well because there will be a lot of changes in the economy this year.

There are plenty of reasons to be skeptical about the predictions, I think the impact of decentralized control systems that no country's government has the ability to control. Or to be a relevant payment system all fiat in the world would have to be killed, even the dollar. Almost sixteen years ago Bitcoin had no value and in that time the last ATH was $108k in last month. I think Bitcoin deserves a big boost moving forward.

Yes, that's also what I'm hoping for. In a few years we could match gold regarding volatility if the downtrend continues, and then some people would already think about using it as a currency again. I also think there may be still a moment where we might experience an extraordinary bullish boost in Bitcoin's price, more in line with the 2021 bull market. One possibility for this to occur is the moment when Bitcoin is truly regarded as an alternative to gold. Yes, Bitcoiners and some economists are already comparing BTC to gold and even did it in 2010 or 2011 already. But we still see plenty of opinions also from academics that it is a quite useless speculation vehicle. And we unfortunately still see a high prevalence of usage patterns like "ride the wave" and "hoard and sell at the top" or  even "buy high, sell low", typical for speculative assets -- instead of HODL and DCA or simply "buy things with BTC". IMO however such a boost would not bring us close to $5M USD, but more close to $500,000.