I've been in the Bitcoin game for a while, and I kept facing the same question:
How much Bitcoin do I actually need if I plan to live off my investments someday?
Most retirement planners completely overlook Bitcoin or they just don’t handle high-volatility assets well at all. I really wanted a tool that pays attention to the risks of withdrawals over time and how Bitcoin changes the outcome probabilities, rather than just trying to guess prices.
So I created HODLPath, a Monte Carlo retirement simulator aimed at testing portfolios that have Bitcoin.
Questions and feedback are totally welcome.
What HODLPath Can Do
- Simulates thousands of portfolio scenarios over decades
- Models asset returns that are correlated
- Puts a spotlight on withdrawal risks, not just final wealth
- Features:
start-of-year vs end-of-year withdrawals
inflation-adjusted or straight spending
optional spending limits after drops
yearly rebalances or letting things drift naturally
The outputs you get:
- probabilities of success or failure
- complete wealth distributions (fan charts)
- distributions of spending paths
- downloadable PDF reports (that include comparison exports)
Return Model (This is Key)
HODLPath runs on a lognormal (log-return) model:
- Users input their expected returns and volatility as annual numbers (the straightforward inputs we all think about).
- Internally, these values are changed into log-return parameters and sampled using a correlation matrix.
- This guarantees:
portfolio values won’t drop below zero
realistic compounding over the long term
more appropriate outcomes.
This is actually a pretty refreshing change of pace from the usual "technical analysis" lines drawn on charts that predict the moon by next Tuesday.
Is that plain HTTP btw? You might want to get a certificate on that guy, even if no sensitive data is technically passing through, it just sets a better precedent.
Also, considering you built this with AI assistants, which are great at coding but sometimes terrible at nuanced statistics, I'd be curious to see the source code. I'd much rather clone a repo and run the Python script locally on my own machine than plug my retirement scenarios into a web form. It's nothing personal, just habit. If you open-source it, the community can also verify that the AI didn't hallucinate a "magic number" in the drift calculation.
Cheers!
I don't know which references you used for your website development but if you have yet known about these sites and tools, I believe they're very helpful for your holdpath website development.
https://hodl.camp/
https://bitcoindata.science/withdrawal-strategy
[ANN] JJG Sustainable Bitcoin Withdrawal Strategy
I can not visit your website with Tor, it is a thing you need to change for your website.
BattleDog, good point on the plain HTTP. This is actually a streamlit app, and I purchased the hodlpath.com domain name and setup a redirect to https://hodlpath.streamlit.app/.
I understand that redirects can be a bit sketchy so I updated the URL above to point directly to the streamlit app URL.
I may end up open sourcing the code in the future. I've done fairly exhaustive testing on the app and cross checked the results against multiple sources, so I think the results are solid.
Catenaccio, thanks for pointing out other similar tools. I wasn't aware of them but will definitely check them out.
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