How big players shattered the dreams of striking it rich in crypto

The insane rise of Bitcoin and the altcoins that followed was mainly powered by retail traders. Half of them were true Bitcoin fans, while the other half just wanted to cash in. Most of them held onto their investments, only cashing out here and there. Then came the speculators, which really took crypto derivatives to the next level. Once the volume for derivatives surpassed that of spot trading, institutional investors began to take a serious interest. It's pretty clear why the big shots got curious. By that time, Bitcoin and altcoins were all over the media and social networks, gaining a massive following and pulling in more people thanks to the fear of missing out. The speculators brought in the liquidity and hedging options that made all this happen. But here's the kicker: institutions hate volatility. So, for all the crypto enthusiasts dreaming of Bitcoin doubling every time there’s a halving, it’s time to let that go. Crypto is slowly becoming more like a regular asset, similar to stocks or forex.

In as much as I agree with you that institutions might have actually changed some certain aspects of bitcoin I will say it was actually expected that bitcoin will most definitely get big institutions and even government coming into it with all the advantages that it actually has. With the adoption rate of bitcoin either institutions or not it was clear that bitcoin will be having reduced volatility gradually because of the high market cap that it will grow too. That’s what it was definitely destined for. Bitcoin isn’t a Ponzi scheme that was designed to actually make people rich. Its first advantage was to safeguard value unlike other currencies or assets that devalue over time. So while expecting less volatility because of the institutional involvement let’s accumulate more now. More over it was expected to be in high demand in future because of its scarcity but bitcoin was never going to be a high volatile currency right from the start

As long as it's an asset that has a well defined potential, high volatility  will not stop institution from investing in the asset. How can you believe that institutions doesn't like high volatility? Matter of fact, some of these institutions are the ones that likes to buy at a discount price and hold longer than some retail traders that sell when the market is still at the early phase of the bullish trend. No matter any methods that the institutions are using to achieve profits from the Crypto market, it will not stop the volatility of Cryptocurrency. Apart from the involvement of big investors in the market, we were already shifting from those era where you would invest some small amount of dollars into a random crypto and luckily it gets pumped and you end up with a massive profit, the era we have moved into is filled with so many scam and untrustworthy project developers that wants to scam investors, whether retails or institutions. If you want to be safe in the market, you should embrace and accumulate Bitcoin, let go of crypto which are altcoins you are referring to. The rough pools and high rate of liquidation you experience with crypto is something you won't see in Bitcoin.

There are diminishing returns sure, but the more money that piles in as adoption increases means demand will still be there. Obviously the days of the price going from $1,000 to $20,000 for example 2013 top to 2017 top are gone. But significant profits can still be made. Double 2021 top of $69,000 would be $138,000 this year which is possible in my opinion. Then we will see what happens going forward. Bitcoin is still a great investment but newbies won’t get rich off it any more. They can still build part of a retirement plan with it though. I see $1,000,000 per coin before 2050.

It's hard for me to imagine someone starting to invest in BTC today and planning to do so for the next 20-25 years, hoping that one day the price will reach $1 million. I think a very small percentage of people are ready for something like that, but even they should know that in 25 years the purchasing power of that money will not be anywhere near what it could buy today. When I look back only 10 years and see what the purchasing power of EUR 100k was and when I compare it with today, I see that many things have become more expensive by over 100%, and on average at least 30%.

Before Bitcoin price are more stable like ordinary assets, the price must reach really high first. For now Bitcoin haven't yet reach it, although we're getting closer, probably after 3x halving, we no longer able to see Bitcoin price to double in just one halving. The good thing is million dollars they spent aren't even enough to own all of existing Bitcoin, so they can't control the price yet.

I dont think its exactly the "end of the dream." I agree with you that with the entry of institutional investors everything changed in the crypto market's dynamics... if before, we had purely speculative movements based on retail investors and that generated explosive market fluctuations... today we have derivatives, ETFs, regulated custodians and other players with longterm ambitions that have reduced Bitcoin volatility, which is why the "get rich quick" approach no longer makes the sense it once did. I dont think its the end of the dream, but rather an evolution of the market, which is now more mature in relation to Bitcoin... institutions have increased liquidity and market depth, making it more resilient to simple manipulations by whales, for example. And the fact that several traditional company managers have included Bitcoin in their institutional portfolios has made it a much larger asset than just a speculative one. Bitcoin still has its cycles, but with less predictability... the market is transitioning from speculative bets to a long-term vision. If you want to profit riskily in the short term, keep an eye on new projects... try to separate the useful from the trash, and still be aware that you're entering a very risky environment where there's a high chance of losing everything. I'm happy with what we've achieved with Bitcoin. The concept remains alive, but you need to approach it wisely and be patient, knowing that its now consolidating itself as a global infrastructure of value that, in my opinion, is even greater than the initial hype.

According to the Power Law model, Bitcoin is expected to reach $1 million by 2032. This model acts like a "crystal ball" for Bitcoin, being based on mathematics and physics, and provides more accurate long-term predictions for Bitcoin’s exchange rate trajectory than other models, such as Stock-to-Flow. By 2050, Bitcoin could surpass $10 million, assuming there is no hyperinflation of the US dollar. If hyperinflation occurs, new calculations would be required along with a precise assessment of its level to understand how Bitcoin’s exchange rate would behave. https://charts.bitbo.io/long-term-power-law/

Movement is the lifeblood of any trader. Institutions don’t like high volatility. I have my doubts

They don't control the price, unless you are saying that they are holding it more firmly and being bigger market makers in both ways. Only thing that controls it is level of demand. Market cap can't double as easily when it's nearing top market cap assets of the world. Price volatility has nothing to do with anyone's likes or dislikes of that volatility. Bitcoin is just more mature and price gets more stable as market cap grows. And fluctuation of it is STILL considered to be very volatile.

There is so much sense in what you said  because I also observed that Bitcoin have been a but more stable in this halving season than the previous ones and the only tangible reason is the approval of Bitcoin ETFs. Many people bought the shares of these companies rather  than buying Bitcoin directly and even though these companies do buy Bitcoin with those funds, the effect of those buy orders are not too felt in the market unlike when many individuals are buying within the same time. I still believe that Bitcoin can still rise and will eventually get to a million dollar in the future. It may not happen so fast like we expected but it will definitely happen.

I agree with you. Currently, crypto is transforming from an emotional sector to a mature financial sector. Over time, the type of investors is changing and the market is maturing. In a regulated environment with large institutions, investor confidence actually increases, which is good for the market. However, retail investors should not just hold on. Risk management, reality and analysis should be followed. Therefore, investing in a planned manner is a sustainable path for the future.

Bitcoin was an innovation in 2008-2009 and only a few people had access to it. Slowly, with the advancement of technology and marketing of Bitcoin, more people discovered this coin and saw the opportunity of making a good investment choice. Then halving happened in 2016 and the price went significantly up, then Elon Musk used the moment and manipulated the whole crypto market. Now BlackRock saw the opportunity and forced SEC to accept Bitcoin Spot ETFs. Btw the last one hasn't crushed the dream of making it big in crypto. Bitcoin's price was already so high that they only did a good job in the previous and this year for Bitcoin gains. There are still many opportunities that almost guarantee a good bull market in the next years.

They always have a way to take advantage of investor riter and especially in trading we often see large institutions trying to use the stop loss of traders riter when entering the market. In the context of short -term influence they have the ability to influence the market but if they talk long -term they are difficult to do it. That is why I prefer to invest or long -term trading so that we can regulate the risk of losses even though we need to recognize potential coins if you want to do it. Large institutions have access to change short-term patterns so we must be careful and as much as possible utilize conditions to avoid large losses.

"All models are wrong but some are helpful", it's the profound saying. With Bitcoin market, after all other famous models failed in price prediction in two latest market cycles, people want to find new models and they were given Bitcoin Power Law model. In this forum, fillippone has a thread with his collected information on this model, his insights and you can join discussions with other forum members there. He introduced the Giovanni Santostasi - The Bitcoin Power Law Theory in early last year. This model can be one reference but generally, I don't rely on any model. I only focus on Bitcoin bullish future in the very long term that beats all models.

Investors always choose to overlook this aspect of Bitcoin so much that this is just the information they spread to others. I am anonymous about my knowledge of Crypto-currency when I have to be that someone was trying to introduce me to Bitcoin and all he was talking about was how I can make money from it, yes it is ok to want to make money from it but he never spoke about any other Bitcoin value. The main reason why Bitcoin is a marvelous investment is that the demand is there and supply has a fix value but Bitcoin is more than just an investment.

@Alpen, Indeed, as the market developed derivatives be superior to spot volumes & attracting institutions. also bringing with them pro hedging tools & liquidity.  Because of this Bitcoin was less heavily driven by retail investors, also price action was further smoothed by ETF & institution.  even though volatility has dwindle in comparison to previous cycles, it is still much higher than that of most stocks, making large moves more difficult but you cant call it impossible so DeathAngel's $1 million plan is not crazy however it is a slower game now. imo there is sure a huge upside but forget about guaranteed doubling every halving.

The market doesn't care what institutions like or what they dislike, and these institutions do not control the market to decide what bitcoin price movement is going to look like, now and in the future. We are not even at the peak of this cycle yet, but bitcoin has already set an all time high of around $124,000. There is still a possibility of reaching $150,000 or more in this cycle. I don't know what you mean when you say bitcoin is turning into an ordinary asset, because i feel the exact opposite, it is becoming an asset that everyone wants to own, including institutions and countries.

There might be some pros and cons to institutional investors entering the crypto market, but there's nothing we can do about it. A significant portion of this rise can be attributed to institutions, as they are the ones with the financial resources. It's something they are also betting on. If you examine the data being shared by them, they are the real HODLers with those stacks, and it's a plus to us, IMO.

Nothing last forever, so we have to accept the new normal about Bitcoin. You cannot stop institutions from investing in the sector. If the price will never double during the bull run, we have to learn to accept the little profit that we can make from it during that period. Less volatility also have it's advantages. It will make Bitcoin to become a safe haven asset and also encourage it's use as a currency. Since Bitcoin supply is limited, the price will continue to increase.