ImThour's BTC Analysis January 2025

Hey everyone, hope you're all doing well. Wishing you a fantastic new year. For those who don’t know me, here’s a quick intro: - I dabble in Technical Analysis and had predicted BTC would hit $20k back when it was around $44k in February-March 2022. (Post Link) - My price target for this BTC cycle was $173k, a prediction I made public back in August 2023. (Post Link) Some of the long-time members here were skeptical when I called the $20k drop, but they know who they are, and they'll see this post. I've also accurately called some movements, like BTC rising from $22k to $40k (Post Link). I'm not trying to prove anything, just showing that I can read the market mostly through technical analysis, not fundamentals. A lot of folks think TA is a joke, but I’m here to show it’s legit. I have a chart showing my prediction for the cycle's bottom at $16k back in April 2022, and it turned out to be right. Just sharing what I’ve put out in this forum that you all could have benefited from. I’m still feeling confident about my current prediction and I’m happy to say I snagged most of my BTC at around $17k each. Thanks to my own knowledge and not following random social media influencers, I trusted my instincts. Now, about the current situation, I see us in a phase similar to January 2021. Back then, BTC had a 30% drop, and we’re sitting at about a 15% drop now. I’m not saying it’s guaranteed to drop further, but it’s something I’ve been tracking after seeing that quick move from the $60k range. Stay strong folks, Bitcoin isn't at its all-time high yet.

From your TA bitcoin is probably going to face a correction of about 30% this January, that's to say we're going to see the bottom of bitcoin around 60kish to 65kish price. IMHO, it's more likely to play out just as you shared but to everyone depending on anothers speculation isn't the right thing. Just do what you think is best for you, if you wanna buy, buy at every dip you meet but just hold because we haven't seen they up we want yet.

I totally disagree with this. When some people are still saying $75000 to $85000 correction, you take your own analysis far lower to $60000. That is not going to happen. At least not this time. DCA is good for both traders and holders in time like this. This is my own advise.

Never did I say it would happen, from my OBS in bitcoin it always takes out the expectation range, if people expect 75kish bottom it's probably going to hit 68kish bottom. however thanks for your correction and mind you it's never an analysis, I'm not good a technical analysis nor predict.

It is not a correction. Also if I disagree with you, that does not mean I can not be wrong . Remember that this is a speculation board. We are only guessing. Even the people that called themselves to be analysts are always saying things that are not the same at the same time as some predict increase in price, also are others predicting bearish market. Do not mind what I posted than to see it as speculations/guesses. Nobody is right here than people that predict bitcoin long term price to be for the bulls.

I am not a technical Bitcoin price analyst to be precised but a random predictor that is based on short term approaches on Bitcoin market prices but then, I don't think if there could be anyone to give a guarantee speculation to be confident about in a long term speculations to say. Thereby, if you ever made it a success, kudos to you but yet, we would still uphold it that Bitcoin future price is unpredictable. The possibilities of you accumulating a figure of your Bitcoin @ $17K may really not mean how studious you may have been to determine the price of Bitcoin but because you literally believe Bitcoin do have value able promises that after the bear season would come a bullish within it market circle. And formally, following random trends which confident expectations is not a good approach for investors rather than taking your lead. Hopefully that has always brought to your success on your long term accumulating and hodling.

In a situation where you use your knowledge to acquire enough bitcoin when the price was still below $17k, we will say, Lucky you, or Thanks to your TA knowledge, that's by the way.   When the Bitcoin price broke back up to the $100k level since December 2024, it happened unexpectedly to me since I just happened to notice it when I saw a thread about it here; this drew my attention back to the prediction of its price reducing from $101k down to $85k, which CZ made a long time ago. Now the price almost went down below $90k today, which could have been the first time since $100k, and assuming it happened, then we could likely also expect it to drop down to the speculated $85k this month. Nothing is still impossible.

OP might be right or wrong until it happens there is no claim of true neither false. Moreover, i abandoned the speculation of Bitcoin getting below $60K or even leveling the bottom within $60K likely to occur this January. There are many outstanding factors that wouldn't let the price to go down there, closer to $80K and with how the changes keep happening looks like correction will now have to range a little around $80K+ comfortably within the time of correction. OP certainly knows that sometimes this analysis don't happen, just for notice we don't need to get too comfortable delaying much time on how we invest hoping the price to fall to that extent, the line of correction might be drawn earlier than we expect.

AFAIK with my prediction ( i might be wrong though) , anything that takes Bitcoin below it’s current demand zone and continue it supply below 85~83 may drop us to 75 or less ( which I’m not sure where exactly the dip  might hit a stop ) but currently it’s still holding strong at the point 90k~ 94k . That doesn’t matter anyways so far someone isn’t considering selling to someone/body who are ready to buy cheaper  .. because that seem to be the plan all these years and it has always repeated itself every cycle maybe  this year will be different-anyways

That still sounds like a good price for me. Time to stack some more. And with this encouragement based on your TA, I'm liking it more if the dips have come and the ATH is still waiting to be hit for this year.

We all know that bitcoin crashed way below the ATH from the previous cycle mainly due to 2 major shit storms that were Luna and FTX. Are you saying you predicted that with TA? Personally, I don't believe in TA too much. I feel like it's more based on drawing lines so that they fit your narrative, because I'm sure you know that a line can point towards a different scenario depending on what point you start it from. I see this all the time where people make a prediction, draw lines as support or resistance zones, falling and rising wedges, and then when price breaks it they simply redraw, for instance by starting from candles instead of wicks, or the other way around. That said, I agree with you that the top is yet to come this year and I'm saying that based on what's fundamentally going on around bitcoin, especially in the US. Also, a 70-102k would have been the worst bull market ever, especially with how much fiat money was printed in the last 4 years.

Hello, I remember some of your predictions. However I hope that you agree that it's incredibly easy to get the predictions wrong. For example, in July 2022 you said that the bottom is in, but the bottom was in only in November, 13% lower. So, while I will not say that you are right or wrong, I'll agree only on "general lines", like this one:

I agree that Bitcoin is not yet in its ATH for this cycle. When i predicted mine for last year it was around $150k i predicted and am still hoping it will reach that amount if not above it this 2025. In the meantime, i will keep track of this thread. I like it. 60K and 65k is wrong. That's way below what Imthour would even expect. If worst comes to worst it should be around 82k and 79k anything below that might seem nearly impossible.

So when do you think we will see the real spikes, in March or April? True but at least @ImThour is one of the few people who shares his technical analysis without bias and is bold in putting forward his ideas, I enjoy listening to his analysis.

Am not doubting that the market may go this bearish but definitely not in this month, maybe i should even come out plain like this by saying not in this season, we should expect when the market dips and we are into another season for accumulation, but definitely not this January, i expect to see more of the market pump, if you can just take a glance on the analysis given from the above chart, we are more bullish and there is high probability of making more all time highs before the end of the month.

We are all making a guess work here, pretty enough nobody knows whatever will take place in the market not even for the next 24hrs. you can disregard whatever everyone says because none might happen and all might as well occur. Remember it's very is to get it wrong than right.

I remember you mate I remember those monthly speculative trades of yours, I am also someone who thinks TA is good in crypto analysis but I also believe one need to add other analysis most especially fundamentals to get a good confluence on the market, base on TA in a monthly time frame there is a FVG and also an order block around the $75k region due to the impulsive market pump in the month of November as such your FIB indicator is definitely correct that we can get another 15% dump most especially since it is clouding with past history but to be sincere I think if we bring in some fundamentals into this then it will take a bit of longer time before we visit those areas again. The upcoming hyped news about Trump policy to me will cause a huge greed and more inflow thereby creating pumps it’s positive news  and we would most probably not be able to repeat history this month, this hype is similar to the one ETF approval caused then when it broke the ATH, so for me $60k isn’t viable this month

True, I remember your post back in December, And for sure many of us are happy to see him back with his technical analysis again and hopefully we will stay and share his insights more as we love seeing his predictions.

That's correct. I also do like his analysis. A lot, actually. All I wanted was to avoid "glorifying" TA, since it's not a perfect/exact tool. That's all. If it sounded too harsh, sorry, it was not intended.

Hi, As I predicted on 9th Jan when the price was at $93k that we may see a dip around here and it will be the last chance to buy Bitcoin at a great price. Seems like that's what happened . If you have followed my posts, you would be buying on this opportunity and won't be scared as it was part of the process. I wanna wish all of you all the best for our journey from here. Will keep you updated if I see something. Also, huge shout out to @hugeblack for always supporting my ideas publicly. Appreciate it.