Introducing cBTC: A Bitcoin-Backed Monetary Protocol Concept Seeking Feedback

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#1Jun 16, 2026, 04:26 AM
Hey folks, I want to share this design idea called cBTC and I’m hoping to get some genuine, technical thoughts from everyone here. So what’s cBTC? cBTC is a proposed stable-value unit that’s backed by Bitcoin, minted conservatively at a 30% loan-to-value ratio from BTC deposits. There’s no USD peg, no fancy algorithms, and no token sale involved. It’s just a model looking into how Bitcoin collateral can help create a unit with less volatility within the Bitcoin space. Here's the basic concept: So, LPs put in BTC → the protocol can mint up to 30% LTV in cBTC. cBTC works as a stable-value token which users can swap back for BTC at current BTC/cBTC rates to dodge any arbitrage. The BTC in the vault can be verified and audited easily. LPs also gain yield from liquidity actions, without any lending, leveraging, or risks off-chain. Why is this worth considering? This gives a BTC-native choice to USDT/USDC, allowing for stable value without stepping away from Bitcoin. Plus, it keeps everything fully collateralized and clear. Questions for you all: I’d love some thoughts on the following: Is a 30% LTV safe during crazy volatility? What do you think about redemption pricing and possible arbitrage situations? Are there any risks or overlooked aspects of using Bitcoin for backing? Any better ways to link this with Lightning or Taproot? And if you wanna read more details: Here’s the full draft: https://github.com/jamestector-coder/cBTC/blob/main/v.3.%20cBTC%20Whitepaper%2002%20Nov.%202025%20(FAQ%20included).pdf Just to be clear, I’m not promoting anything or raising funds. I’m just looking for some constructive feedback from people who really know the ins and outs of Bitcoin’s design principles. Thanks for reading! Any feedback would be super helpful.
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paul.ninjaFull Member
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#2Jun 16, 2026, 09:08 AM
My main gripe is with the word "stable" is that with no peg to an external unit (USD, CPI, whatever), cBTC is really just a different BTC tranche, not a stable asset. If 1 cBTC is redeemable for 0.3 BTC, then when BTC dumps 50% your cBTC just dumped 50% as well. You've reduced leverage and given yourself a smoother ride vs someone who borrowed against BTC at 70-80% LTV, but you haven't actually stabilised purchasing power. That's not necessarily bad, it just means the product is "low-volatility BTC backed by high-volatility BTC", not a stablecoin in the sense most people use the word. The other big question is where the BTC actually sits. If this ends up as a multisig federation or a single custodian with a dashboard, you've basically only reinvented a wrapped asset with nicer risk parameters.
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#3Jun 16, 2026, 10:02 AM
Hi BattleDog, Thank you for your inside. You are completely right in your comment. Actually, it's more of a A Bitcoin-Backed Monetary Protocol than a Stable Value token. The vested BTC of the LP will be in a Taproot-Enforced Non-Custodial Vault, like this the LP never lose custody of their BTC. The complete protocol is designed in such a way that the LP never lose custody of their assets. It will be time restricted but they will always maintain the final custody. The yield and redemption are also prefunded and cBTC can always be changed back for BTC without passing through Fiat. cBTC is Bitcoin made liquid.  It improves bitcoin payment rails and creates a more programable Bitcoin proxy.
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s33d_moonFull Member
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#4Jun 16, 2026, 04:06 PM
This is an interesting approach but I think the word stable needs clearer framing. Without anchoring to something external like USD or CPI, cBTC doesn’t really eliminate volatility, it just dampens it. A 30% LTV makes it harder to get liquidated but if BTC drops 40–50%, cBTC still follows it down. To me, this feels more like lower-beta Bitcoin rather than a traditional stability asset. That’s not a negative though. A smoother BTC exposure could be useful in Lightning liquidity, treasury management or for people who just want something less punchy than raw BTC. It just helps to define it as volatility reduction not purchasing-power stability. The other big hinge point is custody. If the backing BTC is fully provable on-chain and redemption is enforced without trust, this becomes genuinely interesting. If not, it risks sliding into another wrapped Bitcoin product with nicer parameters. Fix those two parts, I mean the framing and transparent reserves and the model becomes much more convincing.
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#5Jun 18, 2026, 01:25 PM
Hi Donneski, Thank you very much for taking the time to analyze the model and for leaving such a thoughtful comment. I genuinely appreciate it. You are absolutely right about the framing: cBTC is not a stablecoin in the classic sense (i.e., pegged to USD or CPI). It is better described as a synthetic, lower-volatility representation of Bitcoin — or as you perfectly put it, “lower-beta Bitcoin.” The goal is volatility reduction relative to BTC, not purchasing-power stability in fiat terms. On the redemption side, cBTC is designed so that any holder can permissionlessly redeem their cBTC for native BTC using the on-chain redemption mechanism. The BTC that backs cBTC is always visible and provable on-chain, and redemptions are not dependent on trust in an operator. This addresses exactly the risk you mentioned with wrapped-Bitcoin models. Your feedback on clearer framing and transparent reserves is spot-on, and we’re integrating that perspective directly into the specification so the intent and guarantees are communicated more precisely. Thanks again for your constructive input — it genuinely helps strengthen the project.
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paul.stakeHero Member
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#6Jun 18, 2026, 02:54 PM
What you're describing is Liquid bitcoin in another name. Have you checked what L-BTC is? Here's their website: https://liquid.net/. The only difference with "cBTC" is that L-BTC is pegged 1:1 with real BTC, while cBTC is undercollateralized... for some reason? I also don't see how being undercollateralized means "more stable." If 1 cBTC is pegged with 0.3 BTC, and bitcoin goes up by 50%, then cBTC will also go up by 50% since it can be redeemed for 0.3 BTC that are now worth 50% more.
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paul2017Senior Member
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#7Jun 19, 2026, 11:07 AM
If BTC is used to pay yield, how can the LP redeem 100% (less 0.2% redemption fee) of their deposited BTC? In 7 years, its all gone.
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#8Jun 19, 2026, 02:44 PM
Hi odolvlobo, Thanks for the question — it’s an important point to clarify because it touches the core mechanics. The key detail is that LP BTC is never used to pay yield. The LP’s deposited BTC stays intact and fully redeemable (minus the 0.2% fee). The yield paid to LPs comes exclusively from the cBTC holders, not from the LP’s principal. Here’s how it works: When cBTC is issued, the cBTC minter pays the protocol fee (e.g., the 15% annualized cost of minting). That fee is what accrues to LPs as yield. LPs are effectively selling Bitcoin volatility insurance to cBTC holders, and they get paid for providing that service. Because LPs are compensated from fees generated by cBTC users, not from their own BTC, their deposited BTC remains untouched. So after 7 years, or 10, or 20, the LP can still withdraw 100% of their BTC (less the redemption fee). None of the yield comes from their own collateral — it is always funded by the demand side (the cBTC holders who choose to mint a lower-volatility BTC position).
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#9Jun 19, 2026, 09:02 PM
Hi BlackHatCoiner, Thanks for the comment — and yes, I’m very familiar with Liquid. It’s a great system, but cBTC is fundamentally different in design and purpose. 1. Liquid (L-BTC) is a custodial 1:1 sidechain asset. L-BTC works by locking BTC into a federation multisig and issuing a 1:1 token on the Liquid sidechain. Its goal is faster settlement and confidential transactions, not volatility modification. 2. cBTC is not a pegged asset — it is a synthetic position with reduced volatility. The 0.3 BTC per 1 cBTC is not a peg. It is the collateral ratio used to assure redemption, similar to how synthetic assets or structured notes work. cBTC does not track BTC 1:1. Instead, cBTC behaves like: A lower-beta, dampened-volatility exposure to BTCA synthetic position backed by provable BTC collateralA token that is always redeemable trustlessly for BTC (up to its collateral ratio) 3. cBTC does not move 1:1 with BTC price. This is the main misunderstanding. cBTC’s price is market-driven, not pegged to the collateral. The collateral ensures redemption safety — it does not define the trading price. Example: If BTC goes up 50%, cBTC does not mechanically go up 50%. Its price reflects the reduced-volatility profile of the synthetic position. In practice, cBTC’s “beta” to BTC is lower because: cBTC minters pay a cost (the minting yield) to hedge volatilityLPs absorb a share of directional risk in exchange for yieldThe market prices cBTC relative to BTC based on risk reduction and enhanced utility 4. Why undercollateralization? Because cBTC is not trying to replicate BTC — it's providing a different risk profile. Undercollateralization is what allows: Volatility reductionLower liquidation riskLower sensitivity to BTC drawdownsA more stable Bitcoin-denominated unit for payments, Lightning liquidity, and treasury use Think of cBTC as: “A Bitcoin-backed synthetic with smoothing properties,” not “a pegged wrapped token.” 5. The only similarity with Liquid is that both use Bitcoin as backing. The mechanisms, guarantees, purpose, volatility behavior, and redemption logic are different.
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paul2017Senior Member
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#10Jun 20, 2026, 02:28 AM
Thanks. The role of the Liquidity Provider as a liquidity provider should have been obvious to me. The paper contains several mathematical expressions, and: 1. The syntax of the expressions is unfamiliar to me and it doesn't appear to be consistent. Is this a standard syntax, such as LaTex or MathJax? If not, can you clarify with expressions in a more familiar way? 2. There are variables whose meaning are never defined. Can you clarify what these variables represent? Now that I have spent more time trying to interpret your expressions, it appears to me that P_{BTC/cBTC} (and all of its variations and typos) is the price of cBTC in terms of BTC. Note that in standard FX notation, A/B signifies the price of A in units of B, which unfortunately is the value B$/A$. If that is the case, then I suggest defining P somewhere as the price of cBTC in terms of BTC (PcBTC/BTC), and then using only P throughout the document. Here they are cleaned up:
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nickprotoFull Member
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#11Jun 21, 2026, 11:38 PM
A native bitcoin derivative is actually quite a nice concept and would allow for a good financing option once it's proven itself. I'm wondering if you'd every consider a fixed fee option rather than an annualised rate as has been pointed out above (as it might erode the position quickly and make you less competitive). At the moment, defi wins out quite well because they have some sort of insurance option (like umbrella on aave) that means additional liquidity can be sourced from somewhere in case a crisis happens. Have you got this baked into your protocol too? It's hard to make something like this decentralised, native, secure and with 100% access time without its scripts being included more natively on the chain. Definitely platforms had to prove themselves too though and I think the same could be said for here (it'll manage it if it is built reliably). 30-40% LTV is really the standard but if it's backed 1:1 by bitcoin and that's the only collateralisation there might be room for 15-20%.
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paul2017Senior Member
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#12Jun 22, 2026, 12:30 AM
I apologize for being unfamiliar with the operations of these protocols. I am mostly curious about stability and sustainability. 1. If minting is not sufficient to sustain the yield pool enough to pay the 15% yield, then how is the yield paid? What ensures the sustainability of the yield pool? 2. Regarding Elastic Supply vs. Mint Swap, are "intrinsic value" the same as "oracle price", and "cBTC" and "price" the same as "market price"? If that is the case, then oracle price affects market price and vice-versa (I assume), creating a feedback loop. Have you examined this? 3. I don't see how a 0.2% redemption fee plus redemption limits can stop a bank run. The redemption fee is not much of a discouragement and the limits only delay the inevitable. Please clarify.
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#13Jun 22, 2026, 02:09 AM
Hi odolvlobo, A) About mathematical expressions: Thanks a lot for taking the time to go through the math expressions in detail — your feedback is extremely helpful. 1. You’re absolutely right about the syntax. Some expressions were written in informal pseudo-MathJax, others in raw text, and a few ended up inconsistent. That’s on me. The next revision of the paper will use strict MathJax/LaTeX syntax throughout so everything renders cleanly and predictably. 2. You’re also correct that several variables weren’t explicitly defined. In particular, P<sub>BTC/cBTC</sub> should have been formally defined early on. Your suggestion to simplify notation to P = price of cBTC in BTC units (PcBTC/BTC) and then use P consistently across all formulas is spot-on — and I will adopt that. 3. Thank you for rewriting the formulas in standardized form. The “cleaned-up” versions you provided are indeed the correct interpretations of the intended equations: BTC_out        = cBTC_amount × P × (1 − 0.002) Y_t            = 0.15 × t / 12 cBTC_minted    = BTC_deposited / P R_{t+1}        = R_t + F_t + U_t Y(t)           = Y_max × (t / T)^p Y(t)           = Y_max × max( λ × t/T, (t/T)^p ),   λ ∈ [0.1, 0.2] 4. And yes — your interpretation of P was exactly right. In the next update: P will be defined formally in the notation sectionAll price terms will use the corrected PcBTC/BTC notationAmbiguous subscripts will be removed Your attention to detail improves the clarity of the entire document, and I really appreciate that you took the time to format the expressions yourself. If you notice anything else that feels off, I’d be grateful for further feedback. B) About the sustainability of the yield pool: Thanks for the thoughtful questions — these are exactly the right points to examine when evaluating sustainability and stability. I’ll address each part clearly: 1. “If minting is not enough to sustain the 15% yield, how is yield paid?” The important clarification is this: The 15% is not guaranteed yield. It is the maximum cost for minting cBTC — not a fixed payout. LPs only earn what the protocol collects from cBTC minters. If demand is lower in a given period: LPs earn a lower yieldminting cost drops dynamically (elastic curve)the system never pays more than it receives This is why sustainability is built-in: No new BTC is ever created and LP collateral is never touched. There is no “yield pool” that can run out. All yield is direct flow-through from cBTC minters → LPs. If demand temporarily drops to zero, LP yield simply drops to zero too — but LPs never lose any of their collateral. This is identical to how market makers earn fees on exchanges: fees depend on usage, not on a fixed promise. 2. “Does intrinsic value = oracle price, and cBTC price = market price? Is there a feedback loop?” Great observation — and yes, this distinction needs to be crisp. Intrinsic value (P_oracle) This is the protocol price used for redemptions and minting. It comes from BTC/cBTC oracle feeds, not from DEX order books. Market price (P_market) This is whatever cBTC trades for on exchanges or Lightning. So: Oracle price affects minting/redemption.Market price reflects supply/demand for risk-reduced Bitcoin.They influence each other, but do not form an unstable loop. Why no dangerous feedback loop? Because: Minting and redemption arbitrage keeps oracle price and market price loosely aligned. If cBTC is very cheap on the market vs oracle: Traders buy cheap cBTCRedeem → withdraw BTCProfit brings prices back together If cBTC is very expensive on the market: Users mint cBTC at oracle priceSell on the marketProfit compresses the deviation This system has the same stabilizing mechanism as wBTC, tBTC, sDAI, and synthetic assets — but with no custodial minting bottleneck. 3. “Why does a 0.2% redemption fee + limits stop a bank run?” This is a key point. The answer is: **Bank runs happen when users fear that collateral will disappear. cBTC cannot have a classic bank run because LP collateral is fully visible and provable on-chain.** Users can see: exactly how much BTC backs cBTCexactly which LP contracts hold itexactly which redemptions are pending A bank run is fundamentally triggered by information asymmetry and custodial opacity. Here neither exists. Still, the mechanics add shock absorbers: (A) Redemption always succeeds, but capacity is rate-limited. This prevents a single whale or bot army from draining liquidity instantaneously. It forces orderly withdrawals, similar to real-time circuit breakers. (B) The redemption fee can increase when the system is stressed. The 0.2% is the baseline. Under high redemption load, dynamic fees apply (variable fee curve): Higher congestion = higher feeHigher fee = market incentive to mint → relieve pressureSystem stabilizes without touching reserves This mechanism is similar to: Ethereum gas pricingCurve’s stableswap slippage curveMaker’s dynamic stability fees (C) LP collateral is never co-mingled or fractionalized. Each LP contract is isolated. A redemption only affects the LP contract selected — not the entire pool. There is no pooled bank-run dynamic at all. In short: **There is no “yield pool” to run dry, no custodial risk, and no fractional reserve. All flows are on-chain, predictable, and constrained by protocol rules.** The system is designed to behave more like: a decentralized derivativea structured BTC instrumentan automated market for volatility hedging …not a bank or stablecoin treasury.
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#14Jun 22, 2026, 07:47 AM
Thanks for your comment retaur, 1. Fixed fee option vs annualized rate You’re absolutely right to bring up the fee structure. One important clarification is that the 15% figure isn’t a flat APR. LPs only reach the full 15% if their BTC stays staked for at least 12 months. The yield curve is non-linear and vesting-based, so short-term LPs earn much less. This protects the system from mercenary liquidity and reduces any erosion effect for cBTC minters. Regarding a fixed minting fee: Yes — this is something we’ve considered, but only as a potential second phase once the protocol is established and cBTC has proven itself in the market. A fixed-fee option can make sense for short-term users who only need synthetic BTC exposure briefly (e.g., Lightning liquidity, treasury smoothing). But we want to ensure the model is battle-tested before introducing additional fee modes. The current design focuses on long-term sustainability and responsible incentives. Once the protocol matures and shows strong market stability, a fixed-fee minting path becomes much easier to implement without compromising those foundations. 2. “Insurance layer” like AAVE / umbrella liquidity Great point. The DeFi world solved this problem with extra capital buffers or insurance modules. cBTC takes a different approach: Instead of adding external insurance, the system removes the conditions that require it. Why no insurance module is needed: No rehypothecation — LP BTC is never reused, lent, or leveraged.No pooled liquidity — each LP contract is isolated, so one failure cannot cascade.No under-collateralized promises — redemptions only draw from the LP selected.No yield commitments — LP yield is flow-through from demand, not guaranteed.Everything is on-chain and provable — no opacity → no bank-run risk. In AAVE, you need insurance because lenders face: smart contract riskliquidation riskdependency on oraclesdependency on market makersdependency on cross-protocol liquidity cBTC avoids all of those interdependencies. The result is closer to: native Bitcoin derivative with isolated collateral vaults, not a lending protocol. This dramatically lowers the systemic risk and eliminates the conditions that require an “umbrella fund.” 3. “Native, decentralised, secure, 100% uptime” Completely agree — this is the long-term trajectory. Taproot-based commitments and Bitcoin-native scripting are getting better every year. And yes: native derivatives will eventually need deeper integration into Bitcoin’s script ecosystem. The design philosophy is: Start with minimal, safe primitives Bitcoin already supports → evolve into deeper integration as tools mature. This is how Lightning, Fedimint, RGB, and tBTC all evolved.
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chris.altHero Member
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#15Jun 23, 2026, 02:09 AM
I think this is an interesting idea. It looks a bit like the BitShares protocol but without an USD peg. But I still haven't fully grasped if it really would work as expected or not. (I guess however there's something I don't understand at my side.) The biggest question is: How can you prevent that the cBTC price simply tends to move 1:1 with the Bitcoin price due to trader action / arbitrage based on the risk the asset becomes undercollateralized? The logic behind this reasoning is: If Bitcoin falls 1%, then the risk that cBTC eventually becomes undercollateralized also increases by a similar percentage. So the traders could anticipate that risk and dump the price of cBTC by about 1%, so the risk is again the same. There is also nothing that really "backs" the price of cBTC, or am I wrong? With "backing" here I mean that if I want to exchange my cBTC to BTC, the price will always be the spot price, which may be manipulated by traders. I ask because BitUSD (BitShares USD stablecoin from 2014) eventually had extreme price swings because traders found out how to "game" it, and then it lost any importance. This is not criticism, I would actually love such a protocol that really works. It would be a bit similar (regarding its goal to be a "less volatile Bitcoin") to my idea of a DLC (Discreet Log Contract) following a Bitcoin moving average (post is in German but I'm sure it can be easily translated today), but much less complicated.
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#16Jun 23, 2026, 07:45 AM
Hi d5000, Thanks for the thoughtful questions — they’re exactly the right ones. 1. Why cBTC doesn’t mechanically track BTC 1:1 cBTC is not a synthetic BTC or a delta-neutral derivative. Its price is market-driven and mainly anchored by utility, not by collateral ratios. The key difference from BitUSD is that cBTC is always redeemable for BTC with no oracle, no peg, and no forced settlement. The market can price cBTC based on its usefulness (Lightning mobility, privacy, programmability, working-capital expansion), not on a fixed formula tied to the BTC spot price. 2. Under-collateralization risk does not translate linearly into price LP collateral is isolated and redemption remains available even in volatility. The system doesn’t force liquidation at a ratio, so a 1% BTC move doesn’t create a 1% systemic risk event. Traders can’t “game” a liquidation threshold because none exists — this is one of the key ways cBTC avoids the BitUSD failure mode. 3. What actually “backs” cBTC Backing is simple: Every cBTC is redeemable for BTC at free-market rates via the redemption pool. There’s no peg, no promise of $1, no oracle. If someone wants BTC instead of cBTC, the exit is always open, making cBTC a bearer asset with an enforced floor based on redemption liquidity. 4. Why traders can’t crash the price like BitUSD Because cBTC does not rely on maintaining a peg, there is no target to attack. There’s no mechanism where discounting cBTC creates cascading liquidations. Arbitrage only aligns around transparent redemption opportunities, not around a fragile collateral ratio. In short: No peg → no attack on the pegNo liquidation ratio → no forced-selling spiralContinuous redemption → natural price floorReal utility → potential premiumNo oracle / no USD exposure → no BitUSD-style feedback loop Appreciate the careful analysis.
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chris.altHero Member
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#17Jun 23, 2026, 01:29 PM
Thank you for your answer. I am afraid of a specific scenario: Let's imagine we have a relatively stable Bitcoin price X for some time, where many cBTC are minted, and those cBTC would be at risk to become undercollateralized at price X-70%. But then a bear market happens with three phases: Phase 1: - BTC/USD begins to decline (max. X - 40%) but there is still hope the bull market comes back and thus the overcollateralization would not be in danger. - cBTC/USD declines too, but more slightly, it may move only 0.3% per each 1% Bitcoin declines "according to the theory" (although it's of course not a "mechanic" correlation). - At the end of the phase BTC has declined 40% and cBTC has declined ~13%. Phase 2: - BTC/USD declines further (starting at X-40% and going to to X-70%). - The closer the X-70% mark is approached, the more volatile cBTC becomes. Because at the X-70% mark the collateralization would be 1:1 and below it would be undercollateralized. - This means that during this phase cBTC probably declines even more than BTC. - At the end of the phase BTC is at -70% and cBTC is at -70% too. But cBTC has declined from X-13% to X-70% (by 57 percentage points, with X as the base) while BTC has only declined from X-40% to X-70%, i.e. by 30 percentage points. Phase 3: - BTC/USD declines below the X-70% mark. - cBTC again declines stronger than BTC (although only a little bit), because it is now mostly undercollateralized. Even if Phase 3 doesn't happen at all, the fear of that phase is what worries me, and if we'd go deep into phase 2, we can expect high cBTC losses. And if this happens, it would not really be any more stable than BTC, only the decline would be delayed. And for this reason I would even expect a decline of cBTC already in phase 1 very close to the BTC decline. Liquidations can of course happen too -- on centralized exchanges, just as they happen with BTC when it there are heavy leveraged positions.
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#18Jun 23, 2026, 06:50 PM
Thanks again — this is a solid thought experiment, but it assumes cBTC behaves like a pegged, leveraged, or liquidation-based system (BitUSD, MakerDAO, synthetic assets, perps, etc.). cBTC doesn’t have a peg, no liquidation thresholds, and no oracle-based collateral targets. So there is no point in the curve where “X–70%” triggers a systemic event, and therefore no reason for traders to mechanically price in a collapse. Collateral only affects redemption strength, not market price, and redemptions do not cascade or force sell BTC. This is why cBTC cannot enter a “death-spiral phase” like BitUSD or any collateral-ratio-dependent stablecoin. Price is free-floating and anchored mainly by utility + guaranteed redemption access, not by a solvency ratio. In short: No peg ⇒ no attack on the pegNo liquidation ratio ⇒ no forced sellingNo oracle ⇒ no reflexive feedback loopRedemption always open ⇒ natural stabilizercBTC price ≠ linear function of BTC drawdowns You’re raising exactly the right questions.
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chris.altHero Member
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#19Jun 23, 2026, 11:53 PM
Thanks for your answer, but no, it doesn't assume a peg. It assumes that cBTC's goal is to behave a little bit less volatile than BTC, but this would be the case only while it's overcollateralized. What I expect is higher volatility when the overcollateralization of most cBTC in circulation becomes weaker in a bear market. I've understood that the goal is that cBTC should its value from usage, e.g. as a currency. However it is also exposed to arbitrage markets, both on the on-chain "redeem" market and centralized platforms (if it becomes popular), and there's where IMO this could occur. I also don't see a "collapse". Only an undercollateralization, which would "trigger" that those wanting to redeem cBTC for BTC would get less BTC than the initial value of the minted cBTC (in BTC). cBTC indeed would not "collapse" in such an event, but the risk that it becomes more volatile than BTC would mean that it would become less usable as a transactional currency. How does that work? Wouldn't the "always open redemption" only confirm the current spot price? By the way: I would love to see this implemented, at least in an experimental way, to see if my assumptions have some empirical fundament.
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#20Jun 24, 2026, 03:18 AM
Dear d5000, Thanks for clarifying — this helps, and I think we’re now very close conceptually. cBTC is explicitly a credit layer on top of BTC, not a claim to “the same BTC value over time.” In that sense, redemption being structurally under-collateralized at times is not a bug, it’s the definition of credit. What matters is that the rules are explicit, bounded, and non-reflexive. A few key clarifications: cBTC is not designed to always be less volatile than BTC.It is designed to be a currency / medium of exchange with less unit value than BTC, backed by Proof-of-Work capital, but not equal to it.Think “BTC as capital” vs “cBTC as circulating credit”. Redemption doesn’t promise “what you initially put in” — it promises transparent access to the redemption pool under predefined rules, with a hard protocol floor (e.g. cannot drop below 50% collateralization). There is no hidden insolvency event, no cliff, no liquidation cascade — only gradual repricing of credit risk. This is why always-open redemption is stabilizing: not because it enforces a price, but because it enforces certainty. Everyone knows ex ante: how redemption workswhat the minimum backing isthat exit is always available That removes panic dynamics and reflexive spirals. Arbitrage will exist, yes — but it arbitrages utility vs credit risk, not a target price or ratio. That’s fundamentally different from systems where collateral weakness creates accelerating feedback loops. So I fully agree with you: cBTC is a “lesser form” of BTC — deliberately so. What it offers BTC holders is: endogenous value creation without selling BTCprogrammable Bitcoin liquidityseparation of store-of-value and working capitalcredit built directly on top of Proof-of-Work capital In short: this is about Bitcoin evolving from money only into Digital Capital, with an explicit, bounded credit layer. And yes — I completely agree with your last point: this ultimately needs to be tested experimentally. Theory can only go so far.
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