Iran's Missiles Didn't Affect Bitcoin

So, Israel and the US decided to strike Iran over the weekend when markets were shut down and crypto trading was low-key. You'd think that would have sent Bitcoin tumbling, especially since Iran fired missiles at its neighbors. Gold and oil shot up, while stock markets in the Middle East took a dive. But Bitcoin? It just sat there, barely moving and didn’t even break out of that range from the daily candle on December 25. According to standard technical analysis, candles after January 25 are irrelevant until the price breaks out of that wild session's range. Plus, if you look at the bigger picture, Bitcoin hasn't reacted to any big news since the drop on December 5-6. Even the short-term holders, who are usually the most active and quick to panic, didn't flinch at the news from Iran. The STH P&L to Exchange metric showed no sign of panic selling, no one took losses when the price dipped to around $63-64K. Compare that to what happened on February 5-6, when short-term holders dumped 89,000 BTC at a loss. Seems like both retail and institutional traders are just... over crypto right now. The big players are focusing on AI stocks, gold, and now oil. And you’re still out there trading Bitcoin?

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Alright, let's take a look. Despite oil and gold surging to six-month highs in reaction to the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, the new daily candle for Bitcoin hasn't really shifted the big picture. The inability to break out of the month-long sideways range has only resulted in redrawing the triangle’s resistance line. The most discouraging part is the trading volume—it remains stuck at the same low levels. While major market instruments are seeing strong moves, Bitcoin continues to sit on the sidelines

Though the market responded on the first shoot of attack, but not to the extend that many think it could go, now people have been more strategical about how they could see some of these economic and political imbalances have effect on bitcoin market price, but not all are seeing the same way they had been thought of, because there could be diverse reaction over the market at any time irrespective of the happenings around the world.

I totally understand your concern. The bitcoin has been proposed to be a safe heaven when it came to the crisis like this, but its value is unable to keep sustain. It's moving up and down like a stock, which is also depending on the market. The recent movement clearly shows how we're in the side ways. So i believe it won't be going far above 75k. We seem get grapped between 60k - 70k for a while. If you're watching the chart how the recovery pennant is not even happening. Yeah it looks like the chart willing to go up, but it get dumped back to the its initial price. So i guess it's a fake pump. It makes me think we're gonna face this side ways zone for months or even a half of year. So it's normal when Bitcoin was not fulfilled out expectation to at least give a pump when the crisis is happening like this time.

I have not checked the charts for a while now so it was like a shock to me when I saw that Bitcoin had soar above $72k amidst the rockets that are flying in the middle east. It obviously means that Bitcoin was able to evade the missiles to get that high. It is good for us because Bitcoin ought to be pumping at a time like this due to high demand as traditional banks may be close.

Honestly thought of the opposite, retail are tired of AI stock and gold simply because the price is already too high for ordinary retailer like us. What is left in there beside us becoming the late buyers? I have a guess that the mover of the market in AI stock and gold is institutional investors and not really the retailers because the circular economy these AI companies made. Bitcoin sitting at $73k is a proof that we aren't tired of it yet.

Seen this increase widden my thoughts in Bitcoin towards war time as many believe that war deeply affect Bitcoin negatively, this implies that war may affect Bitcoin both positive and negative even the negative can be temporary, because when the demostic Bank are not functional Bitcoin or crypto become the option. The attack boom the market to the position it's today, the happening in the market has shown clearly that panic interns of war or some natural disasters is not a threat to Bitcoin but can also be an accelerator to help boom the market.

Why is your topic not reading "American" Missiles Missed Bitcoin? After all, both of them are firing missiles, and the Americans initiated the war, which distorted the market. This is not to take sides, but that's by the way. About Bitcoin, I know it as a risk-on asset, but its own kind of risk appetite is not like the core FX currencies. It often plummets when the war starts, but dusts it off shortly after.

Can you check the chart again? Reason why we normally say Bitcoin can not be predicted. On a norm, this war is supposed to have triggered the market precisely downward but in response, it stays stagnant and now moving up gradually. Perhaps Bitcoin is becoming less volatile, giving the baton to other market instruments. By the way, why are you worried people still trade Bitcoin amidst all of these? Can't you have the balls, beat your chest and shout your anti bitcoin campaign?

Bitcoin's market capitalization has already reached trillions of dollars, it is no longer small. Instead of thinking that investors are tired of stock gold or bitcoin. Think of it more simply, money is flowing between markets and investors are constantly looking for where the better profit opportunities are. That is why they are experiencing opposite movement. Every market need large investors and institutions because only they have the massive flow of money to drive market growth. Bitcoin is no exception, and its rise to $73k is partly due to inflows from ETFs.

That has been the case for any market, it continue to flows from A to X and investors are smart, they are willing to shift their focus to anything that will create them more money. It's no secret, as I have said, they will only going to stick to crypto if we are in the bull run, but not all the time. As for the war, in the beginning we have been impacted by it, but after a couple of days, Bitcoin bounces back and everyone is shouting bull run for all it's worth. We've seen the price going to $73k, and I'm one of those who think that it's going to difficult to break that round number barrier. And yet, in the last 24-48 hours, market is pumping very hard. I'm really surprised because I thought that we are in the bearish trend. But market proves otherwise as investors are again channeling their money to Bitcoin ecosystem.

Once btc crested over 72k the op abandoned the thread.

Nah, I think despite bitcoin having reached trillion dollar market cap it's not big enough. Although your point stands true about how people always finding opportunity elsewhere and that is exactly why I've said retailer are getting tired of AI and gold. The price is already too high that there is no opportunity left. If you buy now, big fat chance you'd become exit liquidity for the big players. Money will eventually rotate back to crypto only matter when, those market can't go up forever.

I agree with the view that money rotates between markets, it does not stay in a single market indefinitely. So yes, money will definitely rotate back to crypto. But to be fair, given the current unstable macroeconomic situation, that is unlikely to happen anytime soon. Perhaps we need to wait a little longer before capital flows shift and money return to the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin generally performs better in stable economies than in unstable ones. Therefore, let's hope that the macroeconomic situation will stabilize again soon.

Despite the war that is going on between Israel with US versus Iran, Bitcoin still sits at $70k. Without the war, it was down to $63k. It explains nothing. I don't think they are switching. Riding the changes in the economy or taking advantage of it and investing in something that would suddenly spike up doesn't mean we can enter it freely. Invest in oil? Will it be that easy? There are still many investors who would just stick with Bitcoin because they can manage it themself but investing in other commodities means we are just riding it. Bitcoin did not fall that much if we consider how much it climbed in a year or two.

I'm simply saying that Bitcoin is no longer small, not that it is already big enough or too big. And once again, my view is that money will always rotate between markets. Each market has its own cycle, and both large investor and retail investor are constantly shifting capital to maximize return. They are not bored with AI, gold, or bitcoin. But I agree with you that investing in stocks and gold at this time, we will face more risks than profits. In investing, if you want to make a profit, buy assets that have not increased in value yet, not those that have already increased too much.

BTC is stuck beneath the November low and I don't expect much positive until the volume accumulates and beats that area.   Relevance of the Iran war is Dollar strength but even that's not especially true. The risk from the war is not immediate exactly, its higher costs from the oil and the disruption to trade and shipping.  Higher inflation will result from those higher costs and loss of efficient trade occuring.

Lol, it just shows that there are narratives that really doesn't make sense for Bitcoin to go up or down. Just like what you describe, there are no war in the background but yet the price dips. And now that their is this USA and Israel against Iran, the market suddenly bounce back and became bullish. I will be biased and say that I will stick to Bitcoin. Haven't invested on oil to be honest, I did invest in Gold because it's another commodity that really appreciate over time. But it was also impacted in a negative way as it was down during this March. Really crazy and hard to predict this market right now with the war in the Middle East.

Exactly and most of this effects will not be felt now but rather in the future if the war actually prolongs which means prolonged energy crisis. I was also analyzing the market that recent pump actually has more to do with the US dollar been the one having a little crash due to the war rather than demand in bitcoin actually causing it because over the past few days inflows of bitcoin haven’t been that so much that we will say it’s actually going to cause huge pump at the moment. For me the war needs to prolong beyond this days which none of us pray for before there is any clear sign of it affecting the bitcoin price.